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Good afternoon Karma Nation! Last weekend we smashed hitting every match-up bet, Folwer T20, Rahm T10, and hit a big score having Fowler at 20-1 to win the event. This weekend we will be looking for our 5th straight winning week to open the PGA season. I will be playing a lot smaller volume and bet size this weekend tho, because of the weather conditions.
Mud, Rain, Wind these 3 words are the best way to describe what is expected this weekend here in Pebble Beach, California. In this Pro-Am the golfers will be playing 3 courses before the field is cut to 60 players after Saturday. The Courses will be Monterey Peninsula CC, Spyglass Hill GC, and the host course Pebble Beach, which they will be playing twice this weekend with everyone that makes the cut joining up on Sunday. This will be a very interesting weekend here in California with all the rain they have received here lately. The greens will be really wet and could be a lot more bumpy than normal with how soft they are and all the foot traffic going over them through out the day. The greens will be very receptive to short irons and wedge play and putting inside 10 feet will be huge factor. Pebble Beach is hosting the US Open this year and have already began prepping for it narrowing the fairways and letting the rough grow more an thickening it up quite a bit. I’ve seen reports that the balls are just settling into the rough here and is challenging to get out in places putting accuracy as a key stat when selecting players. The greens here are also pretty small with the average size being around 3000 square foot making them hard to hit with out throwing in some rain and wind to make it even more challenging. There is some strategy to selecting match-ups this week depending on players draws for which course they will play on which day factoring in the weather. I also feel there is a slight edge in selecting players that will play late Thursday and early Friday getting most the round in before the weather turns bad. I’m looking to try to get players i’m targeting to play Monterey Peninsula on the windiest day, because that course has the most trees of the 3 and should help knock down some of the wind.
Strokes Gained Approach
Par 5 Scoring
I’m playing these plays a lot smaller than i usually do with the weather conditions and being a Pro-Am.
First bet is going to be my strongest Piercy over Kisner. Piercy has great history here and in good form. He draws an advantage also with course selection.
Mullinax is matched up vs Perez here and they will both start on the same course, but Mullinax draws a slight advantage starting late Thursday and Early Friday. Mullinax is in great form also and has good history here.
Mullinax> Perez -130
The next 2 bets I’m backing Jason Day as my top horse for this weekend. He is matched up agaisnt Tommy Fleetwood and Dustin Johnson. This will be Fleetwood first apperence in the US this year. DJ is flying back from over seas playing and could possibly have some jet lag. This is more a gut feel play as well for me. Day has finished 2nd, 5th, 11th, 4th his last 4 trips here and i think he breaks though and wins this weekend.
Day> Fleetwood -160
Day> DJ +150
Day T10 -110
Casey T20 +130
Walker T20 +400
Piercy 66-1 to win
If you havnt signed up for the Karma Discord Chat make sure to do so, as i will be giving out my Draftkings Cores for the weekend in there. We had a great day in Draftkings last weekend as well in both the full tournament and the weekend slate! So hurry up and click the link to sign up! http://ChatDFS.com