Ok, we’re breaking up with John Brown, but we promise to get back together soon.
After a complete misfire last week on Brown, we’re avoiding him this week in a similarly hazy spot. It’s just not clear which Ravens WR will get the shadow coverage from the Saints’ top CB Marshon Lattimore.
Thankfully, there are other situations to exploit for prop betting profit in Week 7.
Be sure to check out more picks and analysis over at Bet the Prop, and follow us on Twitter for fresh picks throughout the weekend.
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Robert Woods > Michael Thomas, Receiving Yards
1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
This seems spicy on the surface until you realize that Woods has actually been a beast this year, and his volume is going nowhere but up.
After averaging a 26 percent share of team targets through five weeks, Woods spiked to a 36 percent target share after Cooper Kupp left early in last week’s game.
Woods has eclipsed 80 yards receiving in five straight and is averaging 87.3 yards per game. He faces a weak pass defense in the 49ers, who’ve given up the ninth-most yards to WRs. Kupp is out again, leaving a ton of targets on the table.
At the other end of the spectrum is Thomas. His volume has been heading south, and this match up is about as bad as it gets. Check out what the Ravens have done to other elite WRs this year:
- AJ Green – 69 yards
- Jarvis Landry – 69
- Antonio Brown – 62
- Juju Smith-Schuster – 60
- Emmanuel Sanders – 38
And while Thomas was the centerpiece of the Saints attack early in the year, the offense is evolving with the addition of Mark Ingram and the emergence of rookie WR Tre’Quan Smith.
Thomas went from a 32 percent target share over the first three weeks to shares of 12 and 19 percent over the past two weeks.
If you don’t like playing Thomas at plus odds here, Keenan Allen at -133 is a solid alternative.
Alshon Jeffrey > Will Fuller, Receiving Yards
1.5 Units to Win 1.1 Units
This one almost feels like a trap, but I’m not sure how we can pass.
Jeffrey has one of the safest floors in the league, while Fuller has been limited by a hip injury and now faces the elite Jaguars pass defense.
The Eagles No. 1 wideout has dominated looks since returning in Week 4, winning a 23 percent share of team targets and a 35 percent share of Air Yards. His 29 raw targets are tied with Antonio Brown for 12th most among WRs over that time.
His match up against the Panthers isn’t exactly a dream, but Carolina has given up some big games against Tyler Boyd (132 yards) and Odell Beckham (131).
Meanwhile, there are a number of factors working against Fuller:
- He’s been nursing a hip injury, which has contributed to receiving lines of 49, 15, and 33 in the past three weeks.
- He’s been losing volume to rookie Keke Coutee, who has out-targeted Fuller 9-6 over the past two weeks.
- Jacksonville has allowed the fewest yards per game to opposing WRs (131.5), and in two career games against the Jaguars, Fuller has yardage totals of 44 and 42.
Carlos Hyde > Lamar Miller, Rushing Yards
1 Unit to win .82 Units
Miller hasn’t hit 50 yards rushing since Week 2, and on the year, he’s averaging 14.6 rushes and 54.2 yards per game.
Hyde has been both the more productive and busier of the two backs, averaging 19 carries and 63.7 yards per game. That’s a significant difference, considering we’re getting even money on this bet after the vig.
It’s worth noting, however, that Hyde’s snap count has decreased in each of the past two weeks as the Browns are starting to give Duke Johnson more work in the passing game.
The Buccaneers have limited opposing backs on the ground, but they may be without the linchpin of that unit. Their best defensive player, Gerald McCoy, hasn’t practiced all week and may miss this one.
Miller has been one of the least-efficient runners in the league in recent weeks, and with the Texans coming in as five-point road underdogs, he may not see heavy volume.