*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
>$6,900: Drew Brees ($7700)- Drew Brees is another guy who, like Ben Roethlisberger, has some pretty extreme home/road splits (with the exception of last season – more neutral). In week 1 for the Saints, out of 59 offensive snaps, 64.4% were a designed pass play. The Saints HB’s were heavily involved in the passing game as well which leads us to believe the Saints won’t be grounding and pounding in a game that is projected to be high-scoring. Michael Thomas was swallowed up by Xavier Rhodes and the tough Vikings secondary last week, but still led in routes run (94.7%) and target share (23.5) so we should expect a different result this week out of the Saints talented second-year wideout against a beatable Patriots secondary. Brees was actually the 3rd overall ranked QB week 1 (according to PFF) while getting beat out by the week’s top performer, Sam Bradford. Brees was able to make four big-time completions and threw for over 100 yards on pass completions over 20 yards. If you’re looking for a QB who can go for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns this week.
$5800-6800: Carson Wentz ($5,900) – After a dominating week 1 showing from Wentz most would expect him to carry some ownership heading into week 2. This is not going to be the case. Many will see the Chiefs at home and immediately back away after shutting down Tom Brady at Gilette. Keep in mind Tom Brady’s #2 receiver is a lacrosse player. Wentz had a 66% completion percentage for 307 yards and two scores against the Redskins in week 1. A move to Kansas City is not ideal, especially for a younger QB, but with Eric Berry out we could see another positive connection between Wentz and Ertz. Wentz was 9/9 when targeting his tight ends and with Berry out Wentz gets a huge bump. Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith (newest Eagle WR acquirees) saw minimal involvement week 1 but expect that to change and the Eagles make it a point to get them going in the offense.
<$5,700: Jared Goff ($5,100) – ˆHAHAHAHA SUCKERS! This is my favorite play to tout from week 1 as I was ALL OVER GOFF. The Rams blew out the Colts and scored two defensive touchdowns as well. If those defensive TD’s didn’t happen Goff would’ve done even BETTER. Last season the Rams were behind in games 76.9% of the time, ranking out 30th in the NFL. The Rams are surprising -3 favorites once again in this game but as we saw that did not stop the new Rams HC/OC from letting Goff air it out. While I don’t expect 46 points I do expect another impressive outing from Goff. On throws 10+ yards down the field, Goff completed 7 of 9 pass attempts for 185 yards and a touchdown. WOW. A big concern with Goff is that he dumps off the ball too much (which is obviously not true – as seen by his 3rd ranked YPA at 15.9 via PFF) but when he did dump it off he did so to Todd Gurley (6 targets) so pairing these two up in a GPP seems like an intriguing strategy. We saw that Goff/Kupp chemistry I mentioned was seen in the preseason in Week 1 and while I do love that combo I am a GPP player. Let’s target Norman this week who should cover Watkins for most of the game. Watkins is one of the most talented players in the NFL and Norman, IMO, is overrated. Lock in one of the most under-hyped plays from Week 1 again in Week 2 and enjoy the low ownership.
From Week 1 analysis on Goff: If anyone has seen the blind-side they know that left-tackle in an offensive line is crucial for the protection and performance of a right-handed QB, that being said, newly added Andrew Whitworth should have a HUGE impact on this Rams OL and in turn Goff. According to PFF, Whitworth ranked out as the best tackle in the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency (98%). Goff’s completion percentage spiked to 76% (from 44% on dropbacks) when there was no pressure on the pocket. MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FROM WEEK 1: Goff ranked 4th on the slate in passer rating under pressure @ 103.6 (via PFF). This is huge for his success and development towards an ELITE QB. Between these major acquirements at WR/OL and a weak opposing DL/secondary, we may see a huge game out of the 2nd year QB.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Jared Goff
RUNNING BACK :
> $7,300: LeVeon Bell ($9,800)- After burning everyone (not me) week 1 is Le’Veon Bell going to be low owned against an intimidating Vikings D? Answer: I really f***ing hope so! Priced up at $9,800 absolutely SUCKS, but this man has the upside for 25-30 DK points on any given week against any given opponent. Do you want to know what I call week 1? A FLUKE. It happens. Players have bad games. They can’t get going. Le’Veon Bell is an elite talent, possibly the most talented running back in the NFL. The Vikings rank out as 9th DVOA against the run so that’s definitely a factor we want to consider but one that I’m going to overlook in GPP’s in a game at home in which the game script favors Bell (25.5 implied total as -5.5 favorites). Here’s a surprising stat that may have led to Le’Veon Bell’s poor performance – all 32 of his rushing yards came AFTER contact. The Browns do have an underrated defense, that’s a fact, they’re interior defender Shelton ranks as the 7th best run stopper in the league. The Vikings defensive lineman, Tom Johnson, ranks out as a terrible defender and I think a hole that will be exploited by the Steelers this week. If I hear chatter of Le’Veon Bell coming in above 12-15% I’m going to be off him, just an FYI.
$6,000-7,200: DeMarco Murray ($6,300) – Well, either DeMarco Murray has reached the point in a running backs career where they begin to fade or just had a fluky week 1 regarding work load and performance. I’m banking on the latter. As I listed in the Mariota analysis last week, the Titans have a top-3 caliber offensive line and going against the 24th ranked run defense in the Jaguars I love our chances of a bounce-back game from Murray. This is expected to be a close game so I don’t think the game script will be an issue here. I actually love this game as a low-owned sneaky high scoring game that should go back and forth despite playing a strong Jaguars secondary (hence why I’m mentioning Murray as one of my top RB – all the damage done is going to be on the ground and pound). Murray is also a huge plus on DK with the full PPR as he should receive at least 5 targets in this game as Mariota should be forced to dump off more as his receivers will have difficulties beating these Jaguars ELITE corners (note: Jalen Ramsey did not practice today – 9/14).
<$5,900: Christian McCaffrey ($5,400)- Yes I’m going back to the Christian McCaffrey hype train for Week 2. We did not see anything huge production wise out of McCaffrey in his debut but I think the volume and involvement were enough to roll him out again in GPP’s for Week 2. He was out-touched by Stewart (19/20), McCaffrey led the team in targets (7) which are crucial in DK full PPR. McCaffrey saw 13 carries in week 1 and I expect a similar amount if not more carries for him in a game the Panthers are currently -7 favorites. So basically Vegas loves the Panthers in this spot, and I think it’s a situation we can trust them. I don’t think this will be the J-Stew show this week and I expect BIG things out of the rookie in Week 2. Lock and load as a high-upside GPP play. (Could end up being pretty popular but I don’t care – the upside potential at this price is INSANE – he’s going to go off).
Week 1 analysis: So this is the biggest question mark for Week 1 in my opinion. Many call him over-hyped, many think he won’t be effective in the NFL, many think he’ll split the workload. The key word is THINK. We don’t know what to expect from McCaffrey in Week 1 which makes him a perfect GPP play. The expectation a lot of us have is that the Panthers get McCaffrey involved heavily from the get go. i.e. The report that says he has his own playbook with more plays than anyone on the team aside from Newton. At Stanford McCaffrey was untouchable, forcing 43 missed tackles in 2016 while not being tackled on first contact 31.8% of the time (via PFF). His ability as a receiver increases his upside even more, especially in a full PPR format like Draftkings. If healthy, this oft-injured offensive line should produce and improve on their ranking of 17th according to PFF. Opportunity will be crucial for McCaffrey in Week 1, and if it’s there expect a potentially HUGE game.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Christian McCaffrey
>$7,000: Julio Jones ($9,200) – I think a lot of people were disappointed in the production of Julio Jones in Week 1 as they should be, he had a down week. This game is looking like a potential shootout and Jones has bounced back for MAJOR games after not performing well. Not going to list all his statistics from games following bad performances but just trust me when I say – the dude bounces back. Jones is matched up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL (Julio has the highest ranked WR/CB advantage according to PFF) and don’t let the Packers D from week 1 against under-sized (IMO – terrible QB) Russell Wilson. Matty Ice and Julio are going to SHRED the 7th DVOA ranked defense and I hope this defensive rank from week 1 will just lower Julio’s ownership. Another high-end play similar to Bell, except I WILL eat the chalk if I project Jones to come in >15% ownership. He’s an ELITE play.
I’M FADING THE OTHER “TOP TIER” WR’S THIS WEEK – IT’S AN EASY FADE. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY I’M FADING ANYONE ON DK PRICED ABOVE $7,000 SHOOT ME A DM @DF_ADVANTAGE AND I’LL EXPLAIN MY REASONING FOR THAT SPECIFIC PLAYER.
$5,000-6900: Sammy Watkins ($5,200)- Make sure to read the analysis below on why I’m big on Watkins this year and specifically before he gets the ELITE defenses in the league later on his schedule. Watkins posted a decent line last week (5 receptions for 58 yards) and could have had an even bigger game if, like I said in the breakdown, the game didn’t blow out with the defense stealing two touchdowns. Now Watkin’s price has dropped by $1,000 on Draftkings. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?! When I saw this I literally jumped out of my seat. Josh Norman may be covering him but will not shadow (did not shadow Jeffery in Week 1 vs. the Eagles). I am not concerned with the coverage here as Goff is going to crush in this matchup again and Watkins is more talented than any CB on the Redskins and it shows. Past the decent CB’s, the Redskins have some of the worst safeties in the league, which leads me to believe if Watkins can beat Norman/Breeland on 1 play during this game (he will) it will be off to the races and I can see a long TD coming for Watkins. Our only MINOR concern here is Cooper Kupp stealing looks as obviously he and Goff have a chemistry thing going on (which is something I weigh more when evaluating a younger QB). This is only a minor concern and one I’m going to look past when constructing my GPP line-ups.
Week 1 Analysis: Another question mark in which people don’t know what to expect in Week 1. With Kenny Britt’s 1000+ yards gone from the equation for the Rams, someone will need to pick up the slack. Watkins is an ELITE player when healthy finishing 2 out of his 3 seasons as a top-32 WR despite only playing 16 games in his CAREER (3 seasons). With the uptick in targets projected with moving from the Bills to the Rams, there is no reason to argue against Watkin’s potential to finish in the top 15-20 in fantasy scoring at the WR position this year. As I went over in Jared Goff’s analysis, the Rams finished 30th last season in % of games leading. This game script should fair well for Watkins (Goff as well) this season where they should be airing the ball out more often than not.
Stefon Diggs ($6,100) – I ended up playing the primetime slate this past week (something I don’t usually do – the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket) and I was all over Diggs. Not that I’m touting this play because on a two game slate obviously, Diggs is an awesome play against the Saints defense. I’ve been on Diggs since his breakout year in 2015. I’m a Diggs believer and with the way Brad-goat played Week 1, I think Diggs is in line for another huge game. In week 1 Diggs led in RZ targets (2), deep-ball targets (3), and caught 88% of balls thrown his way for 90+ yards and 2 touchdowns. Against a burnt-out Joe Haden, I expect big things from Diggs in Week 2. The game script should favor Diggs here as well, as they are +5.5 dogs and Bradford should be forced to air the ball out a bit more. Diggs is the RZ and deep ball threat with MASSIVE upside. He could go overlooked as this game isn’t one with a huge total and he’s on the road, but lock him in as one of the best point/$ upside plays on the slate.
<$4,900: Tyrell Williams ($4,700) – I can’t find the graph I used when doing my season-long research on which is the reason I’m so high on Tyrell Williams this season (I think it was on airyards.com but can’t find it – DAMN) so I can’t provide you guys with my “nerd” analytical perspective on why I love Williams but trust me there is one LOL. Williams burned the Dolphins last year for 125 yards and a touchdown. He’s a bargain on both sites but a high-upside play specifically on DK where his 100+ yard upside is a huge bonus (when Williams pops off for a big game it will come with mega yardage). Williams saw 20% of the target share week 1 which is something to keep an eye with Allen back in the mix this year but I think the talented wideout will continue to see an increase in targets as his routes run are just 5.9% less than the WR1 Allen at 91.2%. Although expected to see a lot of Byron Maxwell, I’m not too concerned. Williams will come in super-low owned and is another awesome high-upside play for Week 2.
Allen Hurns ($3,900) – This play may be pretty “balls to the wall”, I’m not entirely sure what kind of ownership we’ll see yet. One thing we do know, Leonard Fournette is legit and dominated week 1 which is going to open up the passing game for Bortles much more than last year with in-effective Chris Ivory. With the injury to Allen Robinson, someone is going to step up for the Jaguars and pick up MAJOR yardage as we know how Bortles likes to sling it. The Titans rank 29th in DVOA and 26th in pass coverage according to PFF. Hurns saw the highest % of targets (20% a number that will rise) and led the receiver corps in routes run by FAR (90.5%) In a sloppy game with the Texans in which not much offense was displayed Hurns managed to catch 75% of his targets for 42 yards. As my projected WR1 for the Jaguars, I expect Hurns to have a huge game and possibly a huge season (waiver-wire!). Bortles will be airing the ball out here and I can see a game script in which Hurns posts a HUGE game at 4% owned.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Sammy Watkins
>$4,600: Rob Gronkowski ($6,900) – He’s $6,900 need I say more? Lol, all jokes aside Gronk lines up for a huge bounce back week. Don’t fault him for his performance against the Chiefs in the season opener as they’re a team who is known for limiting TE’s and had one of the best defensive players in the league on him all game, Eric Berry. Now up against the soft 22nd DVOA vs. TE ranked Saints, Gronk is looking for revenge. This game has the highest O/U on the week and the Patriots have the highest implied team total. I don’t think Chris Hogan is going to be posting a 100/2 line here and Cooks is overpriced. Gronk is going to be the #1 guy for Brady and the Pats in this matchup and is 100% worth it to pay up for at the TE position (or FLEX to be contrarian – for some reason no one ever plays a TE in their flex which makes this an awesome GPP strategy).
<$4,500: Coby Fleener ($3,100) – I think Fleener is going to be the Ertz of week 2. He’s $500 cheaper than Ertz was last week and while he is not as featured in the Saints offense he is an uber-talented player with Drew Brees as his shot-caller. The Patriots are known to lock down on the other teams #1 weapon, which in this case is Michael Thomas. I could see a long TD from Tedd Ginn but I think Fleener will be the guy who moves the chains and is the RZ target in this game. He could end up being chalky but I made the mistake last week of not eating the chalk at a position like TE and I’m not making that mistake again. Fleener is an ELITE play.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY: Coby Fleener
GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK :
Keep in mind a lot of these points are still in play this week so still read up: One thing to note is that there are going to be a LOT of fish (fish = inexperienced DFS players) in this first week. Everyone reading this article, watching our videos, using our lineups, etc. has a huge advantage over these “fish” already. The second thing is we are going to get our first look at what teams do with players replacing those who are injured i.e., Ware/Edelman. I also believe that there is a major contrarian advantage in Week 1. There are a lot of sharp plays (listed in this article) that are going to fly WAYYY under the radar. Another thing to keep an eye on is the possible overlay. The sites will get better at predicting what size contests they should put out to completely fill but it’s the toughest for them week 1. If you’re a true grinder looking for that + E/V make sure to take advantage of the overlay.
Now let’s get into some strategy for Week 2. We’re going to see more balanced lineups this week with Bell in a tough matchup and DJ out for 8-12 weeks. That means more people are going to be paying up at positions like QB and WR. You know what we do. Pay down at those positions (Julio exception) and pay up big at RB/TE/D. This is my game theory angle for this week and the strategy I’ll be going in my main 3 GPP teams on Draftkings.
Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking. There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stack. I’ll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here. Goff/Gurley/Watkins and then coming back with Pryor or Crowder (haven’t decided yet). This is going to be an EXTREMELY low owned stack that just gained .2-.5% from me giving it out to all of you for FREE. Remember that when you’re winning ALLLL the money this week.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 🙂