*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
Tier 1: Alex Smith ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD)- A lot of people may think this is point chasing, not me. The Raiders have been the worst in the NFL against the past, literally. They are ranked dead last in passing DVOA at 32nd. The Raiders have allowed a 70+% completion rate to QB’s this year which as our CEO, Anthony Carson stated in his “AC’s Final Thoughts”, plays right into Alex Smith’s strengths. Let’s also not forget that Smith carved up this exact defense in Week 7. Fighting for their playoff hopes I expect Smith and the Chiefs to be sharp at home this week. Vegas loves this game.
Stat Prediction: 320/3/0
Tier 2: Dak Prescott ($5,800 DK, 7,300 FD) – Prescott’s price on DK is so good he’s close to a lock for me in all formats. Particularly GPP because of how low owned I think he is going to be. Prescott has not had a rushing touchdown in 3 weeks and one could say he’s “due”. A rushing TD for a QB is huge and he’ll have ample opportunities while picking apart a sad, injured Giants defense. It’s no secret this team has checked out and I don’t think that changes now that McAdoo has been fired. The Giants are 23rd in DVOA and will not have any success getting through this elite offensive line of the Cowboys. I feel like Dak is going way overlooked as people think he can’t play well without Zeke but Alfred Morris is coming off a huge game and has looked just as good as Zeke (actually better statistically). Dak’s rushing floor also makes him a very good play in cash games, especially on Draftkings.
Stat Prediction: 275/2/0 – 1 rushing TD
Tier 3: Deshone Kizer ($4,900 DK, 6,400 FD) – I know the Cleveland guys on the DFS Karma team are loving Week 14 because of all the Browns that look like great plays. I’m not going to sit here and tout how I’m calling the Browns get their first win of the year this week but if you didn’t know already, they are. Josh Gordon looked amazing last week against one of the best secondary’s in the NFL. The opposing CB’s actually came out and said he was the toughest cover of the year. Now in a matchup against a broken Packers secondary, we expect Gordon to feast. Kizer is going to be racking up all those points and offers some nice rushing upside.
Stat Prediction: 240/2/1 Rushing: 4/55/1
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Dak Prescott
RUNNING BACK :
Tier 1: Kareem Hunt ($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD)- God I am such a donkey. Can’t believe I’m still chasing these Kream Hunt points. All jokes aside, Hunt has been playing extremely well, he has not been able to break off the big one which is a lot of what football is about. At home this week against a team that is well below average against the run (19th DVOA). According to PFF, Kareem Hunt is still the 4th best running back in the NFL this season and I think this is the week nobody is going to play him (Not to mention the Raiders allow an average of 48.4 passing yards per game to running backs). I’m all in.
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 120/1 Receiving- 4/40/1
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD)- Yes, I’m going to have a lot of lineups with two of the running backs from the same team. Yes, this is technically a negative correlation but in GPP’s nowadays you need to get different and just because something is negatively correlated doesn’t mean it can’t happen. The whole GPP strategy I attack these days are catching plays on these days where a negatively correlated play is the nuts. With rising rake and player skill, this is what it will take to be profitable long-term in DFS GPP’s. Lynch is coming off his best three games of the season and while I don’t expect him to be effective against the #1 team against pass-catching running back’s, I do expect Lynch to be effective on the ground. Load up.
Stat Prediction: Rushing – 140/2
Tier 3: Doug Martin ($4,000 DK / $6,100 FD)– To come full circle here I’m only going to have a ton of Martin on DK and not even half that amount on Fanduel. Martin’s price on Draftkings is just ridiculous this week as he is supposed to see a full workload against the 25th ranked run defense in the NFL. I can’t believe our proprietary projection model is expecting such low ownership out of the back but I love this spot for him if he does indeed get the workload he should. NFL DFS is a volume game and Martin (although ineffective so far this year) will get the volume. He allows you to do so much with your lineups on Draftkings this week and I love him.
Stat Prediction: Rushing– 19/80/1 Receiving- 2/15/0
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Kareem Hunt
Tier 1: AJ Green ($7,300 DK / $8,500 FD) – Something is up in this Bengals game. Vegas love this side of the ball and while the entire world will be on Bernard (who is a free square), I think you need to be overexposed to Green in this game. Green can go nuclear and break a slate on any week and he actually has a decent matchup this week. The Bears are middle of the pack against the pass at 14th DVOA, but Green’s matched up against the second most targeted CB in the league. That’s obviously not a good thing for this cornerback if QB’s are looking his way constantly. Lock in Bernard for the price but play tons of Green (without Dalton) this week.
Stat Prediction: 12/160/1
TIER 2: Dez Bryant ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – This price is actually insane for Dez Bryant. It’s borderline disrespectful. The Giants have been getting destroyed through the air (and the ground) this year and are without their best CB’s while everyone else is banged up. You already know how much I love Dak this week and you better believe I’ll be stacking him up with Dez this week. If he’s going to be low owned I may just have to go all-in on him to have that much of an edge over the field on Sunday. Great play that will end up in a LOT of my lineups.
Stat Prediction: 9/120/1
Tier 3: Terrance Williams ($3,700 DK / $4,900 FD) – Cowboy’s ONSLAUGHT!!!!! Let’s GOOO, I never recommend WR’s from the same in this article but this week is just too perfect. Williams is so cheap on Draftkings and seems to always burn the Giants defense. Matched up against Ross Cockrell is probably one of his best matchups of the year. Williams took the Giants secondary for 6 catches and 68 yards in Week 1 when the Giant’s defense was fully healthy. He’s going to be under 2% owned this week and is the type of player who could win you the Milly. (I love coming back with Shepard or Engram in a stack of this game).
Stat Prediction: 6/80/1
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Terrance Williams
Top Play: Jimmy Graham ($4,900 DK / $6,900 FD) – I understand that the Jaguars have an amazing defense. In my opinion, they have the best defense in the NFL. But I also believe in Russell Wilson and his ability to make things happen on a football field. I’m not interested in the WR’s for Seattle as they will be locked down by the Jaguars elite cornerbacks, but they can be attacked via the TE. They only rank 15th DVOA against the tight end and nobody is going to play Graham. The Graham-Wilson connection has come together a bit this year and I could see Graham blowing up here at 3% ownership. Please just over-expose yourself to him in GPP’s this week.
Stat Prediction: 8/80/2 (bold I know)
GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK:
Now let’s get into some strategy for Week 14.
If you’ve been using my article you’ve had massive success this NFL season and that’s only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you. Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma. Trust what we’ve done, trust what we’re doing, and follow us to the money this week.
Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking. There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing game stacks. I’ll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here. Dak/Bryant/Williams and then coming back with Shepard.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 🙂