Bobby’s Week 17 NFL GPP Breakdown FD & DK
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
This is an interesting week where information plays a huge role in who is in play or not. Specifically, in cash games we gain a huge edge by knowing all the injury/narrative/rest news that is going on in the league. This edge also applies to GPP’s and I believe this is going to be a HUGE week for the DFS Karma team. Make sure to be using all our content accordingly.
Hint: PAY DOWN AT QB THIS WEEK!
Tier 1: Jimmy Garropolo ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD)- Jimmy GGGGGGGG. Jimmy Garropolo has stormed onto the NFL scene and is yet to lose a game with his new team. The Rams are resting a ton of their starters this week and if Jimmy G can tear apart NFL starters I guarantee you he’ll be able to pick apart the 2nd/3rd stringers for the Rams this week. The price on Jimmy G is not cheap and people will make note of this and avoid on a week I and others recommend paying down at QB. I’m much higher on the two QB’s I list below but if you’re looking to pay up at QB I believe that Jimmy G is your best bet.
Stat Prediction: 350/3/1
Tier 2: Jacoby Brissett ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD) – Although the Colts don’t have a lot to play for, Jacoby Brissett does. With Andrew Luck possibly returning next season Brissett needs to have a strong finish to show that he is a capable NFL QB if he wants job offers in the future. I can guarantee you he is not taking this game lightly and is actually in a smash spot this week. His #1 receiver TY Hilton is going to be pretty chalky this week but nobody is pairing him with his QB. Brissett brings a lot of rushing equity to the table and provides a nice ceiling with his rushing TD upside. Houston is another one of those “funnel defenses” who rank 24th in passing DVOA while being much stingier against the run (10th rushing DVOA). A player I’m not going to write up but want to mention with Brissett is Marlon Mack who has major upside if given the opportunity in week 17. Mack is purely a GPP punt but I will have a lineup with his and Brissett stacked up.
Stat Prediction: 315/2/1 — 1 rushing TD
Tier 3: Patrick Mahomes ($4,700 DK, 6,000 FD) – Mahomes is getting his first start of the regular season after tearing apart defenses in this past preseason. During the preseason Mahomes went for 390 yards, four touchdowns, with a 63% completion percentage, to go along with his elite 109.3 QBR. People were calling for Mahomes to start over Smith before the season started. Now with a season under his belt learning under signal caller, Alex Smith, Mahomes gets a chance to show what he can do against a true NFL defense. This matchup is going to scare people off Mahomes but keep in mind the Broncos are not what they once were and actually have a funnel defense that is very mediocre against the pass (15th passing DVOA). Mahomes is extremely cheap on both sites (on DK I even think he’s cash game worthy considering how cheap he is) and will see extremely low ownership. He will be on one of my three main teams this Sunday.
Stat Prediction: 260/2/1 —- 1 rushing TD
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Patrick Mahomes
Tier 1: Devonta Freeman ($5,900 DK, $6,600 FD)- Ignoring his last game in which game flow did not help Freeman’s game at all he should be back to work this week in a must win game for the Falcons. This game between the Falcons and the Panthers is a tough game to get a read on but given the Vegas totals and the team’s history I’m riding the shootout/high-scoring game over the bust. Freeman is going to be involved in this matchup and will be pounding the ball into this Panthers line. The only way Freeman doesn’t perform in this game is if the Panthers blow the Falcons out of the water which is not going to happen. If this game plays out like I envision it Freeman is going to see around 25 touches including all the goal-line work in which he will smash value.
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 110/2
Tier 3: Wayne Gallman ($4,200 DK / $5,100 FD)- Gallman is so cheap on both sites and nobody will play him. His involvement in the passing game is insane and he’s basically taken over the full workload of the Giants RB’s. He’s seeing 6-8 targets a game in addition to his 12-15 rush attempts and he’s only 4.2k on DK!!! FULL PPR!!! This is insane. Factor in the fact that Washington is out of the playoffs and ranked 26th in rush DVOA + 39 YPG receiving to RB’s, we have to lock in Gallman this week in our GPP’s. I know I am.
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 65/1 Receiving- 7/45/0
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Wayne Gallman
Tier 1/2: Marvin Jones($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Green Bay has nothing to play for and have been torn apart through the secondary all season. They are another team who implements the “funnel defense” scheme where they give up much more yards through the air than on the ground. GB ranks 22nd in passing DVOA versus 8th in run DVOA and Marvin Jones should be able to destroy Davon House which opposing QB’s have posted a 103 QBR when targeting the CB. This is a smash spot for Jones.
Stat Prediction: 12/120/1
TIER 1/2: Mohammed Sanu ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – Julio Jones is the lock of the week. Everyone knows this. The perfect pivot off Jones is Sanu who has just as great of an opportunity this week and has gained the trust of Matty Ice throughout the year. Sanu has consistently seen 8-10 targets per game and we know he has that passing upside ;). In all seriousness Sanu is the perfect pivot off Jones who I can see outscoring Julio this week.
Stat Prediction: 7/140/1
Tier 3: Will Fuller ($3,400 DK, $5,200) – This is my favorite play of the week by far and I cannot believe more people aren’t talking about him at the WR in GPP’s. Hopkins is out and the Colts rank 31st in passing DVOA. Will Fuller has an insane ceiling as seen by his 125 yard 2 TD game earlier on in the season when Nuk was in the game! With Hopkins out the TD equity for Fuller is through the roof and we should see a lot of targets coming Fuller’s way. He’s cheap on both sites and is going to be under 7% owned. Load up.
Stat Prediction: 6/100/1
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Will Fuller
Top Play: Rob Gronkowski ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD) – Gronk is one of the top GPP plays at TE no matter what week it is. In Week 17 the Patriots need a win for their playoffs seeding and Gronk needs a huge game for a $2 million-dollar bonus. Gronk would need 12 catches or 144 yards to hit the bonus and you better bet he’ll be involved in the Patriots scheme this week. Gronk’s totaled close to 400 yards in his past three games and I don’t expect him to slow down now.
Stat Prediction: 12/150/1
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 🙂
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