Bobby's Week 16 NFL GPP Breakdown » DFS Karma
Connect with us

Football

Bobby’s Week 16 NFL GPP Breakdown

 

 

*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS.  MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S.  TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”.  THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *

 

 

 

QUARTERBACK:

Tier 1:  Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,900 FD)-  As we approach the final couple weeks of the 2017 NFL season something I always give a larger “say” to is narrative.  Who is fighting for a playoff spot? Which teams look checked out? This week I think Matthew Stafford fits this narrative perfectly of a team who is fighting for a playoff spot versus a team who has checked out and fired their head coach.  I feel like there is a misconception that the Bengals have a really good defense. Wrong.  They are 18th in passing DVOA and 20th in run DVOA.  I’ve heard something about Stafford throughout this year about how some flip switches for him this time of the year.  Stafford is going to be locked in on Sunday and rip apart this Bengals defense.

Stat Prediction: 380/3/1

 

Tier 2:  Jared Goff ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD) –  So people really aren’t going to play Jared Goff this week after he has ripped apart the NFL all season.  By no means are you going to get Goff at 1% owned but his ownership is going to be down against one of the most extreme funnel defenses in the NFL.  The Titans rank 24th in passing DVOA and 10th in run DVOA.  If Gurley is not successful on the ground against this tough D-Line I expect the Rams to have no problem airing it out and preparing Goff for the playoffs.  With all his weapons, healthy I expect Goff to have a huge game.

Stat Prediction: 315/3/0

 

Tier 3: Eli Manning ($5,200 DK, 6,800 FD) –  WOAH!!! Where did that come from Eli last week?! The Giants still didn’t hit over 30 points which brings the streak to I believe around 25-30 games, worst in the NFL.  Since Eli’s benching, he has attempted 46 and 57 passes per game, the latter being his most on the season by far.  I don’t think Eli is checking out and I think he is now playing with a major chip on his shoulder.  He does not care what the record of the Giants is, he is going out to win football games.  This offense is going to be heavily focused on the pass again this week and is worth a shot at a QB this cheap if we’re getting 50-55+ pass attempts.

Stat Prediction: 310/3/2

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$):  Matthew Stafford

 

RUNNING BACK:

 

Tier 1: LeSean McCoy ($8,300 DK, $8,600 FD)-  Out of all the top-tier running backs on the board this week, LeSean McCoy is going to come in at ½ the ownership or less compared to some other big names.  For this reason + his workload alone you should be considering Shady in your GPP’s.  Now we look at this opponent which some may get scared off by and we realize this is actually a pretty good matchup for the RB.  The Patriots implement the bend but don’t break strategy with their defense which will set up perfectly for Shady to get dump-offs (5 targets in his last game against the Patriots).  I expect Shady to be even more involved this week if the Bills want a chance to stay with the Pats and Brady.  We should get 25+ touches out of McCoy at 6-7%.  This is an elite GPP play.

Stat Prediction: Rushing- 120/1 Receiving- 5/45/0

 

Tier 2: Joe Mixon ($6,000 DK / $6,100 FD)-   This is an extremely risky play as the Bengals offensive line is one of the worst in the league and like I said the Bengals may have checked out and had already shipped off their head coach.  Mixon was supposed to be a stud in the NFL this year and really didn’t get the chance to be that guy due to injuries and OL problems.  He’s given us some big weeks and I’m willing to take a shot on him in Week 16 when NOBODY is going to play him and he’s returning to a feature role in the Bengals offense.

Stat Prediction: Rushing – 85/1   Receiving – 4/50/0

Tier 3: Wayne Gallman ($3,900 DK / $4,800 FD)-   This is a play I love this week and I feel like not a lot of other people are on.  Gallman is being heavily utilized in this Giants offense and even better, heavily utilized in the passing game. Gallman has totaled 13 receptions off 16 targets in his last two games while turning those catches into 80 yards on the ground total.  If Gallman can keep his carries around 12 and maybe even get a few more he could be the type of guy who wins you a GPP this week.  This is a risky play keep in mind against the Cardinals but one that I am in love with in week 16.

Stat Prediction: Rushing– 13/65/1 Receiving- 7/55/0

 

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Wayne Gallman

 

 

WIDE RECEIVER:

 

Tier 1/2: Jarvis Landry ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) –   Landry is a guy you NEED on a lot of your teams this week on Draftkings as well as Fanduel.  Landry’s snap count is through the roof and now he gets a matchup against the Chiefs, who are leading the league in yards allowed in the slot.  Landry is coming off a week where he saw 13 targets for 99 yards.  If Landry is going to consistently see 10-15 targets (like he’s seen all year) he is going to go OFF in this spot.  Basically, the amount of receptions he receives pays off most of his salary.  Outside of 30-80 yards, everything is a huge bonus for you in GPP’s.  If he finds the EZ this week Landry will be the nuts.

Stat Prediction: 12/120/1

 

TIER 1/2:  Dede Westbrook ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) –  Oh San Fran.  The 31st ranked DVOA team against the pass in the NFL.  A rookie with a chip on his shoulder who says he has something to prove.  A QB who has looked elite and has been clicking perfectly with this offense.  How do you not love the rookie speedster this week against a team that gives up yardage like this?  Before last week (fluke) where Westbrook only saw 2 targets, he was averaging around 9 targets a game.  Bortles obviously likes him as a target and Westbrook really hasn’t given us that explosive ceiling game we’ve been waiting for.  With his ownership suppressed from last week’s dud, I love this spot to get on for Westbrook’s blowup game.

 Stat Prediction: 7/140/1

 

 

Tier 3: Brandon LaFell ($3,400 DK, $5,200) –  With Darius Slay hounding AJ Green all game I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaFell have a big game coming off his monster performance a couple weeks ago.  He is close to the stone-cold minimum, sees around 6-8 targets per game (which could hit up to 10 with Green shutdown) and has the red-zone TD upside.  He does not need to do much to hit value this week and I think he could have a huge game as the WR1 for the Bengals in Week 16.

Stat Prediction: 6/100/1

 

  

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Jarvis Landry

 

TIGHT END:

 

Top Play: Rob Gronkowski ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD) –   Gronk is in the zone right now and I want all of him this week at home against the Bills who he ripped apart for 147 yards just a couple weeks ago.  Gronk has as much upside as any player in the NFL and is going to be heavily utilized this week.  Getting into narratives Gronk has a huge $2 million bonus coming his way if he can collect another 16 catches & 200 yards before the end of the season.  You better believe Gronkowski is going to hit these marks and destroy the Bills this week.

Stat Prediction: 10/130/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 🙂

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication.

More in Football

You've Seen All Our Screenshots, Now Join Us And Get Our Winning NFL & NBA DFS Plays, Props, and Projections!
You've Seen All Our Screenshots, Now Join Us And Get Our Winning NFL & NBA DFS Plays, Props, and Projections!