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Record: 17-18 +13.78 units
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo (-3.5) (-110)
Buffalo Bulls have done a fantastic job covering the spread in conference games this season. They have covered 8 of their last 9 conference games and are 9-3 ATS this season. In the Mac Conference Championship we have a lopsided matchup on the offensive side of the ball. The Northern Illinois Huskies are averaging just 19.92 points per game where the Buffalo Bulls are averaging a staggering 35.25 points per game. Although Northern Illinois has beaten the Bulls in their last 5 match ups, the Bulls should win this game handedly. The Bulls are led by 6’7 Junior QB Tyree Jackson who has been having a stellar season. He has thrown for 2,605 yards 25 TDs and 11 INT while adding another 7 on the ground. On top of the Jackson playing well, the Bulls have done a great job running the ball this season. They average 201 yards per game with two stout running backs in the backfield. I see a double digit win for Buffalo. Take them at -3.5 with confidence.
Bet 4 units on Buffalo -3.5 to win 3.64 units (-110)
Northwestern vs Ohio St (-14.5) (-110)
62-39… If you listened to last week’s episode of What’s the Spread, we not only called Ohio State covering but we called them winning the game. Ohio St exploded with 567 yards of total offense against one of the nation’s leading defenses. Dwayne Haskins catapulted himself back into the Heisman conversation by throwing for 396 yards and 6 TD. With Ohio St on the outside of the College Football Playoffs looking in, I expect Urban to make another statement in this game. We have another case of a high powered offense vs an offense that leaves little to desire. Ohio St comes into this game averaging 43 points per game while Northwestern struggles to score 24 per game. Northwestern has not fared well against the Buckeyes. In the last 10 games between the two sides, Ohio St has won 9 out of 10 and covered in 6 and pushed in 1. 14 points is a large spread for a Conference Championship Game. But, if Urban Myer wants a shot at the College Football Playoffs he will need to run up the score against Northwestern. I suggest buying the hook, just in case the Buckeyes go up big early and the Wildcats score a few garbage time points.
Bet 3 units on Ohio St (-14 buy the hook) to win 2.5 units (-120)
Memphis Tigers (+3) at UCF Knights (-105)
This weekend we might see one of the most tragic ending to a Cinderella story. The UCF Knights deserve all the credit in the world. They have won 24 consecutive games. They have earned the highest Group of 5 College Football Playoff ranking in the history of the CFP at 8. But last week, the unthinkable happened. Junior QB McKenzie Milton suffered a gruesome season ending knee injury. The Knights stayed in high spirits and rallied behind Freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. Not only did the Knights win against South Florida to keep their win streak alive, but they covered as well. But if you look at the tale of the tape in depth, you will not be as hopeful for a similar result this weekend against Memphis. When UCF played a struggling USF team (losers of 4 out 5), the Bulls started backup QB Brett Kean. They later called up 3rd stringer Chris Oladokun. In that game Mack Jr threw for 81 yards and rushed for 51. The matchup between Memphis and UCF would be in favor of the Knights had Milton stayed healthy. The two teams have played each other tough and on October 13th it took everything Milton had for the Knights to prevail. The Memphis Tigers are coming into this game on fire! Winners of 4 straight, knocking off the Houston Cougars for a chance to play for the AAC Championship. It pains me to say, UCF will not be able to score enough points to cover against the Tigers. With the combination of QB Brady White, RB Darrell Henderson, and WR Tony Pollard, look for the Tigers to score and score often. As much as it pains me to say, the nation’s longest winning streak might come to a close this weekend.
Bet 1 unit on Memphis +3 to win .95 unit (-105)
Parlay 2 units on Washington ML, Boise St -1, Pittsburgh/Clemson o53 to win 8.2 units (+410)