Volume is king.
Whether it’s prop bets or DFS, determining what kind of volume a player will get is the name of the game.
We’ve been doing well by focusing on volume in our head to head prop bets in recent weeks. Betting on completions, receptions, and carries takes away some of the unpredictable variance involved in yardage bets.
Last week, we went 2-1 in this space, only missing out on 3-0 when Danny Amendola left the game with a knee injury. Volume bets will once again be on the agenda this week.
Check out Bet the Prop for more best prop bets throughout the weekend, and follow us on Twitter for all our latest picks heading up to kickoff.
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Matthew Stafford > Cam Newton, Completions
1 Unit to Win .82 Units (-122)
Playing at home against the high-flying Rams, and likely to be without star rookie RB Kerryon Johnson, any hopes of a Lions upset rests on the arm of Matthew Stafford.
He’s averaging 24.7 completions per game, and without Johnson to lean on last week, he completed 28 passes against the Bears, his second-highest total of the season.
- Over the last two seasons, Stafford averages 28.7 completions on 44.7 attempts in games where his Lions are underdogs of six points or more.
- He averages 23 completions on 35 throws in every other game.
- The Lions are 9.5-point underdogs against the Rams.
Newton, meanwhile, is competing 22.3 passes a game. With Christian McCaffrey rolling along at 5.5 yards per carry over the last month, I expect the Panthers to continue to press the run against Tampa Bay.
That was the game plan when these two teams met in Week 9, as Newton completed 19 passes on 25 attempts – his second-lowest total of the season – while McCaffrey had 17 attempts, the second-most carries all year.
Kenny Golladay > Tyler Lockett, Receptions
1.6 Units to Win 1 Unit (-164)
I know this is chalky, but it’s still solid value — if I were pricing this bet, I’d set it at about -200.
The bottom line here is that Golladay appears mispriced in the custom prop betting tool. If you want something with a little less chalk, you could try pitting him against:
Golden Tate: -122
Robert Woods: -122
Jarvis Landry: -104
Larry Fitzgerald: -122
I have all those receivers seeing fewer targets than Golladay this week, as the Lions’ alpha receiver has dominated work since Golden Tate was traded.
- His 35 targets over the past three weeks leads all WRs.
- His 30 percent share of team targets is sixth best.
- He’s second in Air Yards to only Julio Jones in that time frame.
And as we’ve already touched on, the Lions are likely to be airing it out against LA.
I ended up picking Lockett to play against Golladay for two reasons:
- He’s averaging 5.3 targets per game compared to Golladay’s 11.7 over the last three.
- As on outside receiver, Lockett is most likely to draw coverage from Richard Sherman, who’s not only in a “revenge game” against the Seahawks, but is playing lights out, lock down coverage this year.
Stefon Diggs > Jarvis Landry, Receptions
1 Unit to Win .73 Units (-137)
The only guy that’s a bigger ball hog than Golladay these days might be Stefon Diggs, whose 29 targets in two games since returning from a rib injury is the best mark in the league. And in the two games before his injury, Diggs racked up 26 targets, giving him a total of 39 receptions on 51 targets in his last four appearances.
The downside is Diggs is likely to see a lot of shadow corner Stephon Gilmore. But he’s been a little leaky in recent weeks, giving up seven receptions to Corey Davis, and six to Davante Adams.
As for Landry, he’s always been a volume play, but with the Browns doling out heavy doses of RB Nick Chubb, that volume just isn’t there of late. Between Weeks 6 and 8, Landry had target totals of 10, 15, and 12. In the three weeks since, those totals have dipped to 7, 5, and 5.
A date with the Texans is unlikely to bring relief — Houston allows the eighth-fewest yards to opposing WRs.