Joey’s Thursday Night Football Showdown Breakdown
This doesn’t seem like a great game to watch but injuries have caused it to have some nice fantasy relevance even on the Miami end that would not normally be there. Albert Wilson was just placed on the IR and Kenny Stills will be out freeing up a bunch of salary when choosing the Miami WRs.
Are the Texans really back to being a force in the league? After starting 0-3 they find themselves on a 4 game winning streak. While they should continue that win streak they’ve faced only teams that are currently under .500 and tonight is no different. There defense on paper has looked good but again all the teams they have played have bad offense and again that doesn’t look to change.
The spread is currently at -7.5 in favor of Hou with an O/U of 44.5. These games are usually low scoring and I not really a fan of these guys for the Thurs-Mon slate
DeAndre Hopkins: There shouldn’t be much convincing you here. He might just be the best WR in the league and he should be one of the top of your lists when deciding on player pools. I might not be looking at him that much on a main slate but Howard doesn’t scare me a lot in a single game slate. You need the studs to be able to win this slate.
DeShaun Watson: He’s one of the top QBs in the league and this spot looks great for him again. He had 4 straight games of 300 yards, but the past 2 weeks he had tough matchups. He will bounce back nicely tonight. I love putting both QBs in my showdown lineups, but you want to at least start with Watson. He has the highest floor and the highest upside on the slate.
Will Fuller: To start his career he had a touchdown in every game he played with Watson. The past couple weeks he’s been dealing with an injury. This could be a great buy low spot for Fuller with recency bias people should be down on him at that price but I love the spot for him.
Brock Osweiler: He’s coming back to Houston where he robbed a huge salary off them. He’s actually played very well in the two starts he’s already had. With his Reliable WR Wilson gone he will be looking elsewhere for production but should still be able to get you what you need. I like to play both QBs a lot in showdown especially when one is cheap.
Lamar Miller: This play makes me want to puke but he’s in such a good spot he could go off. Last week he was about to get into the endzone and top 100 yards well I guess reach that mark. I was high on him to begin the season and his adp flew up as the off-season went along I would think he would have to pay off his price in positive game script.
Danny Amendola: He should see very high volume tonight with all the injuries to WR. His yardage hasn’t got to elite level, but he targets have been number 1 WR caliber the past 2 weeks. Not a lot to say on himi but volume will be elite.
Defense: The Thursday night games are usually low scoring so I like to incorporate defenses into my showdown lineups especially a game like this were the offenses haven’t been scoring too much. Dolphins D; Watson has been sacked the most out of any QB in the league so far this season with 25. Sacks are the most predictable defensive stat when trying to evaluate defenses for fantasy. Although the Dolphins haven’t been able to get to the QB a lot they do have Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn on the edges who are pretty good that might be able to take advantage of this spot. Texans D is the prettier pick here. The Dolphins with all the injuries to their WRs should have trouble scoring in the air. The Texans D hasn’t been that good so far this season but the matchup is worth looking at. They have been taking advantage of their easy schedule the past couple weeks. The Texans advantage is their defensive line they’ve been able to get to the QB a ton and this spot should be no different. Texans D is the better play but the Dolphins D I could see paying off. The salaries definitely reflect the upside between the two defenses.
Kickers: I don’t see a ton of points being scored in this game. I could see the kickers playing a big role in this game if the teams can’t get into the endzone a bunch. Houston and Miami are both some of the worst redzone scoring teams in the league. This is an interesting stat I look at when evaluating kickers. They are both also in the bottom half of the league in 3rd percentage. 4th downs could come a bunch for these guys so kicking upside is definitely there.
Frank Gore: Him and Drake play similar snaps but they are not priced that way. Drake is clearly the better back but Frank Gore is always around taking snaps. He will probably see 10 rushes and some routes run and you are hoping you get lucky with this pick. I wish Drake would see a ton of workload but we just aren’t seeing that so Gire will be fantasy relevant tonight. His Ceiling doesn’t appear that high but he has one of the better floors of these cheap guys just because there is a 100% chance he will touch the ball.
Devante Parker: Parker always has so much hope to be a great WR in the league and he final has the opportunity to be the lead in this offense. This will be a make or break moment for Parker. If he doesn’t show up at this spot I don’t see his career going anywhere if he can’t have the Gase of his life here. Gase doesn’t seem like he wants to play Parker but there’s just no other WRs to play that he needs snaps out of him. If this wasn’t a showdown I wouldn’t play him but he’s a value play that needs to be considered because the targets should be there.
Jakeem Grant: He’s the more confident play. He has big play ability in an offense that will need someone to step up in Wilson and Stills absence. At min salary on FD and plenty cheap on DK volume is the king of DFS and he will be on the field for a majority of the game. I’m more confident in this play than Parker. I have a feeling people know Parker more than Grant and ownership will be on Parker but I’d rather play Grant. Grant has actually seen consistent snaps every game so this will be the safer of the 2 picks.
Alfred Blue: The Dolphins are really bad against the run making Lamar Miller a great play. Miller has been awful to roster this year so why not go with his backup for very cheap and get a huge edge on the field. This is definitely a punt and you are hoping for a break out run. He will not get the volume but could grab some points.
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