Matchups to Attack
Robert Foster vs Torry McTyer
Robert Foster has taken on a larger role in the Buffalo Bills offense since Week 10. In those six weeks, he’s averaging 3.5 receptions for 81.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns on 5.0 targets per game. Over that span, he’s averaging 15.2 DK points per game, while flashing 20+ DK point upside. He has made an elite deep threat for the Bills, averaging 22.6 yards per reception this season, and the Miami Dolphins have featured a plethora of holes in their defense this season.
Foster has played the majority of his snaps (59%) as the Bills left outside receiver this season. He gets a matchup against Torry McTyer, who has played only 41% of his snaps as the Dolphins right outside cornerback, but he’s expected to take on that role with Xavien Howard likely out again this week. McTyer has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ fourth worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing a 76% catch rate, while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. He also ranks in the bottom-10 of the NFL in fantasy points (0.4) and yards (2.15) allowed per route covered. His yards allowed per route covered is the most important factor here, as Foster is known for being a deep threat early in his career.
Julian Edelman vs Buster Skrine
Julian Edelman has only played in 11 games this season because of a four game suspension, but he has found plenty of success in that time. In 2018, he’s averaging 6.3 receptions for 71.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 9.3 targets per game. He has scored double-digit DK points in 10 of his 11 games, including three games with 20+ DK points. Edelman also totaled four receptions for 84 yards and one touchdown (18.4 DK points) on five targets against the New York Jets this season.
He has played as the primary slot receiver for the Patriots, recording 68% of his snaps as New England’s slot option. He’ll get a matchup against Buster Skrine, who has played 96% of his snaps as New York’s slot corner in 2018. He has been targeted on 22% of his routes covered, while allowing a 70% catch rate. He has also graded out as a bottom-five cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Skrine is allowing 0.47 fantasy points and 2.38 yards per route covered, which both rank in the bottom-five of the NFL. New York’s slot corner has been a position we have attacked for the majority of the season, and that will not change this week.
Tyreek Hill vs Daryl Worley
Tyreek Hill has struggled at times this season, but he has looked outstanding for the most part. He has played in 15 games this season, averaging 5.5 receptions for 91.9 yards and 0.7 touchdowns on 8.7 targets per game. He has flashed elite upside, scoring 40+ DK points in three games, although he has posted single-digit DK points in three games this season, including his only matchup against the Oakland Raiders. In that game, he totaled only one reception for 13 on six targets.
Hill has moved around the Kansas City Chiefs formation, but he’s expected to see plenty of snaps as their right outside receiver this week. He’ll get a matchup against Daryl Worley, who has played 53% of his snaps as Oakland’s left outside cornerback. Worley has been targeted on 21% of his routes covered, allowing a 64% catch rate. He’s also allowing 0.48 fantasy points and 1.52 yards per route covered in 2018. Furthermore, Worley has graded out as the sixth worst cornerback in the NFl, per Pro Football Focus, while Hill has been one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Matchups to Avoid
Robby Anderson vs Stephon Gilmore
Robby Anderson has struggled quite a bit this season, but he has caught fire over the last three weeks. In those games, Anderson has totaled 20 receptions for 312 yards and three touchdowns on 31 targets, which are nearly half of his numbers for the entire season. Over that three games span, he’s averaging 24.1 DK points per game. He’ll likely be targeted early and often again this week, as Jermaine Kearse is questionable and Quincy Enunwa is doubtful, but this will be one of the most difficult matchups of his season.
Anderson has shifted around the New York Jets formation throughout the season, playing between 25% and 40% of his snaps at each position. That won’t matter, though, as he’ll be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, who has moved around the New England Patriots formation throughout the season. He has covered the best opposing receiver on a weekly basis, and he’s allowing only a 60% catch rate, while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. He’s also allowing only 0.27 fantasy points and 1.21 yards per route covered this season. He has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ second best cornerback in the NFL, and there’s no reason to attack him any week of the season.
DaeSean Hamilton vs Desmond King
DaeSean Hamilton has stepped up for the Denver Broncos after the team traded away Demaryius Thomas and lost Emmanuel Sanders to injury. He has been playing at a high level over the last three weeks, averaging 6.7 receptions for 44.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns on 10.0 targets per game. Over that span, he averaged 15.1 DK points per game, scoring double-digit DK points in each game. While he has found his groove recently, he had struggled a bit when first inserted into the starting lineup, but that should have been expected for a rookie receiver.
Hamilton has played the majority of his snaps (57%) as Denver’s slot receiver. He’ll get a matchup against Desmond King, who has played 96% of his snaps as the Los Angeles Chargers slot corner. He has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ best cornerback in the NFL this season. King has allowed a 73% catch rate, but he has only been targeted on 11% of his routes covered this season. He’s allowing only 0.22 fantasy points and 1.2 yards per route covered, as well. King has consistently been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL for the last few years, and he should find plenty of success against the rookie receiver.
Minnesota Vikings WRs vs Chicago Bears CBs
Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have been two of the best receivers in the NFL this season. This duo is combining to average 14.0 receptions for 158.6 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on 19.8 targets per game. Thielen has scored double-digit DK points in 14 of his 15 points, while Diggs has been a bit more inconsistent. They have both flashed elite upside, although each player has struggled a bit over their last four games.
Thielen has played 58% of his snaps as the Minnesota Vikings slot receiver, and he’ll get a matchup against Sherrick McManis. McManis has only played limited snaps this season, but 85% of his snaps have come as the Chicago Bears slot corner. He’s allowing only a 44% catch rate, while being targeted on 16% of his routes covered. Furthermore, McManis is allowing only 0.13 fantasy points and 0.57 yards per route covered this season. Diggs has moved around the Vikings formation, but he’s expected to play the majority of his snaps across from Kyle Fuller. Fuller has been targeted on 19% of his routes covered, allowing a 59% catch rate. He has also held his opponents to 0.29 fantasy points and 1.3 yards per route covered this season. Both McManis and Fuller have graded out as top-five cornerbacks in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. For what it’s worth, Aldrick Robinson will get a matchup against Prince Amukamara, who has also graded out as an above average cornerback this season.