Tennessee Titans (-180)
It was only a few weeks ago that the Minnesota Vikings were better than -1000 favorites over the Buffalo Bills. Obviously that game didn’t go according to plan, but these odds are entirely too close at the moment. Marcus Mariota has only played healthy in one game, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. He threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns in that game, while adding another score on the ground. The Tennessee Titan’s offense simply isn’t as explosive when Mariota is injured, and they flashed what they can do when healthy last week. Outside of their only win, Buffalo is being outscored 100-23 (77 points) this season. Tennessee has featured a dominant defense, allowing only 18.3 points per game, and Buffalo was shutout by the Green Bay Packers last weekend. Buffalo simply features one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and Tennessee should be able to limit their success once again this week.
Bet 3 units on Tennessee -3.5 spread to win 2.6 units (-115)
Minnesota Vikings (+140)/Philadelphia Eagles (-165)
This total seems entirely too low for this game. These two teams are only combining to average 43 points per game this season, but they are both underperforming at the moment. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has looked good in two games this season, but they have allowed 27 and 26 points in their other two games. The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, have been struggling against everyone recently, allowing 31.3 points per game over their last three games. Minnesota has also scored 29 and 31 points in their only two road games this season. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout early on, as Minnesota features an offense that has the potential to dominate any defense, but they have also proven that they tend to struggle to stop even average offenses.
Bet 3 units on Minnesota/Philadelphia OVER 45 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+145)
This is a simple matchup of offense against defense. The Kansas City Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring with 36.3 points per game, while the Jacksonville Jaguars lead the NFL in points allowed with 14.0 per game. The major difference here is that Jacksonville has proven that they can score offensively, totaling 31 points against a tough New York Jets defense, while Kansas City has allowed 23+ points in each of their four games this season. While it’s fun to watch Pat Mahomes and his recent success, regression is on the way. On the season, he owns a 10.1% touchdown rate, which is better than Aaron Rodgers’ best season (2011). Jacksonville features the type of defense that has the potential to shut down Kansas City, and the plus odds are icing on the cake. Keep in mind, I don’t believe Jacksonville will be able to stop Kansas City’s offense, I simply believe they can slow them down enough for the offense to win this game.
Bet 2 units on Jacksonville ML to win 2.9 units (+145)
Parlay 2 units on Tennessee ML, Green Bay -2 spread, and Los Angeles Rams -7.5 spread to win 8.8 units (+439)