Ben Roethlisberger/James Conner/Antonio Brown
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit a few offensive road bumps this season, but they are still averaging 411 total yards and 25.5 points per game through four games. Pittsburgh gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 403 total yards and 30.5 points per game this season. Their defense has been decimated with injuries, losing Deion Jones and Keanu Neal for the season, while Grady Jarrett has already been ruled out for this week. The Steelers are -3 point favorites in a game set at 57.5 points, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 30.3 points.
Ben Roethlisberger has struggled a bit this season, but he’s still averaging 353.5 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. In games that the Steelers have scored 30+ points, Roethlisberger is averaging 35 DK points per game. His top target has been Antonio Brown, who is averaging a 7.3/68.0/0.8 line on 13.3 targets per game. He hasn’t been the dominant option many were expecting with Le’Veon Bell out of the lineup, but he has still scored 15+ DK points in each of his four games. It’s also only a matter of time before Brown breaks out, and it would be wise for Pittsburgh to try to get him going a bit more in a plus matchup. James Conner has struggled since his performance against the Cleveland Browns, but he is averaging 99.0 total yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game this season. Atlanta’s run defense could struggle without Jarrett, and Pittsburgh is the type of team that will gameplan to take advantage of that. Furthermore, they have struggled against receiving running backs throughout the season, and Conner is averaging 6.0 targets per game this season. If you want to turn this into a four man stack, JuJu Smith-Schuster is the clear next option. Pittsburgh has already proven that they can produce four dominant fantasy options in one week, as well.
Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley
This game was mentioned above, but the roles are reversed now. The Atlanta Falcons have also featured a dominant offense, ranking in the top-six of the NFL in passing yards (315.0) and points (29.0) per game. They get an elite matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rank in the bottom-seven of the NFL in total yards (305.0) and points (29.0) allowed per game. This game has all the makings of a shootout, as the total is set at 57.5 points. The Falcons are currently small underdogs, but they still feature an implied total of 27.3 points.
Matt Ryan struggled in his first game of the season, but he has looked elite since. In his last three starts, he’s averaging 35.7 DK points per game. He is also averaging 354 passing yards and 4.0 total touchdowns per game over that span. Calvin Ridley is in a similar position to Ryan. He failed to record a catch in his first game, but has since totaled 15 receptions for 264 yards and six touchdowns over the last three weeks. While his touchdown rate is likely to regress, this is a plus matchup for all of the Falcons receivers, and he comes with tremendous potential. Julio Jones is the more obvious stacking option for Atlanta. Jones has yet to find the end zone this season, but he’s still averaging 7.3 receptions for 125.5 yards on 11.5 targets per game. The Atlanta offense has been one of the hottest in the NFL recently, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue this week.
Blake Bortles/Dede Westbrook/Austin Seferian-Jenkins
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been far from an elite passing offense, but they are averaging 267 passing yards per game, while scoring seven touchdowns through the air this season. More importantly, they get a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank second last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 329. The Chiefs have only allowed eight passing touchdowns, as well, but they have given up a quarterback rating north of 100 to their opponents this season. The Jaguars are small underdogs in a game set at 49 points, and they feature an implied total of 23 points this week.
Blake Bortles has flashed tremendous upside this season, scoring 28.32 and 36.54 DK points in two of his four games. He struggled a bit in his other two games, but he has found success when Jacksonville has scored more than 20 points in a game. His favorite target has been Dede Westbrook, who leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He is also tied for third in touchdowns, although he has only scored one. He still comes with a low price tag, but Westbrook is averaging 21.4 DK points per game in the contests Bortles has found success in. Austin Seferian-Jenkins hasn’t found much success this season, but he has flashed touchdown potential. He also gets a matchup against Kansas City, who currently ranks 26th in the NFL against tight ends. He’s a cheap option, who could find the end zone in a game that is expected to be relatively high scoring.
High Upside GPP Stack
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce
This is an awful matchup for the Kansas City Chiefs, but it won’t be often that you can get their players with low ownership. They have featured one of the best passing attacks in the NFL this season, as they are averaging 297 passing yards per game, while totaling a league-high 14 passing touchdowns. The Jacksonville Jaguars have featured the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing only 657 yards and three touchdowns through the air through four games. Still, the Chiefs are -3 point favorites in a game set at 49, giving them a respectable implied total of 26 points.
Patrick Mahomes has looked unstoppable this season, as he’s averaging 31.1 DK points per game. He has as scored 25+ DK points in each of his first four games, throwing for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns, while adding 53 yards and one touchdown on the ground, as well. Tyreek Hill has cooled off a bit recently, but he’s averaging 21.9 DK points per game on the season. He’s also averaging a 5.8/91.0/0.8 on 8.0 targets per game. After catching only one pass in the Chiefs opener, Travis Kelce has scored 20+ DK points in three consecutive games. In those games, he’s averaging 7.3 receptions for 100.3 yards and 1.0 touchdown (25.4 DK points) on 10.7 targets per game. I don’t necessarily believe the Chiefs dominate in this game, as regression is coming for Mahomes and company, but this may be the only time we can get their players with low ownership this season, and I’m looking to take advantage of that.