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Good evening Karma nation! A quick recap from last week was that we had more losses than wins. Travis Kelce had a great 27.9 fantasy point game, but I had him paired with Mahomes, who came across an injury that limited his playing time. What hurt us the most was Michael Thomas scoring a whopping 0. I did not think it could happen, but hats off to Carlton Davis locking him down on 20 coverage snaps for 0 catches.
Week 20 starts the conference championships! I look at points per play to judge a team’s offensive explosiveness. This tells me how quick a team can score. The teams that are playing this week rank accordingly: Green Bay (1) Tampa Bay (2) Buffalo (3) Kansas City (7). Both game totals are over 52 so I am expecting fireworks. We have reviewed, we have reflected, so lets get to optimizing!
OVERWEIGHT: (Travis Kelce) ($8,000 DK)
Sammy Watkins has been a limited participant in practices this week. I still think he plays but make sure to check his status before making lineups.
Last week Hill and Kelce both led the team in target market share with 27% each. Hill had more receiving yards and air yards by a hair but when it came to the touchdown equity Kelce was favored. Kelce is targeted 25% of the time when in the red zone.
This season the Bills have allowed 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. They also allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends and was second in receiving yards. Last week the Ravens targeted Mark Andrews 11 times, but Lamar was not able to make accurate throws. This will not be the case for Mahomes.
Last week our projections had him at 22.7 which I felt was too conservative, so I bumped the percentile option up to 75th percentile and the new projection was 29.6. This was basically spot on, so we are keeping the projections on 75th percentile and getting a projection this week of 26.9. Do not overthink this one. Buffalo’s secondary should give issues to the wide receivers giving more opportunities to Kelce.
OVERWEIGHT: (Stefon Diggs) ($7,000 DK)
Diggs has been a pivotal piece of the Bills offense in the playoffs. He is averaging 27.7 fantasy points, 117 receiving yards/game and 1 touchdown in each game. Allen has also targeted him 20 times in those two games.
This season Diggs has led his team in target market share with 29.8%. The next highest is Cole Beasley with 19%. He is second behind Gabriel Davis for targets in the end zone with 10. Diggs is not one to lineup on one side the whole game. The Chiefs secondary is not terrible, but with the versatility Diggs offers he should see more zone coverages than man. Diggs has a 96.2 passer rating against zone coverages.
Being a Kansas City native I have watched many Chiefs games. The way to beat them is keeping their high-powered offense off the field. The Bills have only two ways to beat the Chiefs. They either establish a run game and rack up rushing yards eating clock, or they mimic the Chiefs high-powered explosive offense. I am taking the latter on this one. I also think this is the reason the Bills will lose. Expect Diggs to get plenty of targets and even some deep threats this week.
Other candidates: (Chris Godwin), (Isaiah McKenzie- leverage), (Gabriel Davis- leverage)
OVERWEIGHT: (Davante Adams) ($7,000 DK)
Last week Adams was targeted 10 times for 9 receptions and a touchdown. Adams received 27.8% of the team’s target market share.
Adams is easily one of the smoothest route runners in the game. He has an average separation of 3.2 yards against the cornerbacks he faces. According to Next Gen Stats, his quarterback has the highest passer rating, 121.5, and highest completion percentage, 70.7%. With the most accurate QB in the game and the best route runner in the game you get a 136.0 passer rating between Adams and Rodgers.
Carlton Davis is coming off a high where he locked down Michael Thomas. While Adams will see all the cornerbacks Tampa Bay has to offer, he will see a decent amount of Davis. Davis is targeted a team high 15% of the time. He also allows a team high cornerback yards/route with 1.15.
The optimizer has Adams as the highest projected receiver this week and he is easily my top receiver. The fact Rodgers ownership is less than Mahomes and Allen tells me the Rodgers + Adams stack could provide a great opportunity for leverage.
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: Not this week
I do not have much to say on fade/underweight plays this week. The best four teams are playing to go to the Super Bowl and they got this far for a reason so I do believe everyone is in play.
Both these teams are extremely good. I do expect full fireworks from both games.
Have a narrative for each game. Let those narratives help you decide the players you will roster. Utilize the late swap! If you have a lineup and the chalk has failed swap out a more popular player from next game for a more leveraged player. It is ok to leave salary on the table in these instances.
I believe Kelce is the best play on the slate. I am scared that I may not roster enough Mahomes, but this is strictly to get leverage with Rodgers. Vegas has the BUF/KC game with the highest game total and that gives me confidence that Diggs will have numerous opportunities. Rodgers + Adams will be my stack I create majority of my lineups from. Remember do not sleep on the “other candidates”. Those are also strong plays that I will be utilizing much of.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 or send me a message in the discord chat and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!