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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is Imperative when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 10 Slate Review
As yours truly continues to have his worst cash game year since I started playing DFS, I finally had a huge GPP week, that realistically you can hope to just get a couple times a year in which a lot of pivots I went after payed off, in particular, Tom Brady in a bounce back game, Antonio Gibson/D’Andre Swift at RB, Diggs/Hopkins at WR, and Gronk/Jordan Reed at the TE position. It wasn’t without some bad picks, of course, as Russ had yet another poor game (for him), all the chalk RBs that I (and a lot of the DFS community) plugged in failed the most port in Aaron Jones/Mike Davis (injured)/Duke Johnson, while Jeudy had a poor game and the Texans/Browns game had an insane amount of wind that really hurt almost everyone in the game with the exception of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Last week was one of the lower scoring weeks I’ve ever seen and definitely proved why it is almost ALWAYS worth it to pivot off of heavy, heavy chalk in large field tournaments as the matchup can be pristine, the volume can be there, and a multitude of other factors, but nothing is ever a guarantee and there is always a high probability, or maybe even a higher probability, of a player failing to hit value or have a big game over having the slate winning upside that you want. It felt so risky to play a lineup with Gibson/Swift as my 2 RBs but they were so much cheaper and in great spots that I was able to then pay up for Kyler/Hopkins (chalkier stack), and then play Alvin Kamara in my flex spot at what was wayyyy too low of ownership. Not to say there wasn’t a ton of luck involved too, as always, as I ran pretty good with the Hail Mary of course combined with Gibson getting into the end zone twice and Kamara scoring 3 times. The moral of the story, and this rambling, is to make stacks that make you uncomfortable and while you never want to play a full contrarian lineup, take some chalk that you like and then include some low owned guys; that lineup that I’m referring to netted me well over 4 figures and had 3 players over 20% owned, 3 plays between 10-20%, and then 3 under 10%, for a balanced ownership, high upside lineup that came in around 13% ACO (right in the middle of the target of 9-16%). Enough of that and onto what is kind of an ugly slate in terms of high-powered offense but one that should be a great one for tournaments with not nearly as many obvious chalk spots and 40+% owned players.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Lamar Jackson/Justin Herbert/Deshaun Watson – Lamar Jackson has definitely not followed up his MVP season with another one as the Ravens have dropped 2 of their last 3, including what was a literal wash last week versus a far inferior Patriots team (and I’m a Pats fan); however, Lamar now gets to face a Titans team that no one seems to be talking about as a bad defense, but has gotten torched time and time again this season. The Titans D is giving up, on average, over 400 yards of offense per game (and over 120 yards of rushing yards allowed per game). They rank 25th against the pass, have the 2nd lowest adjusted sack rate in the NFL, and despite being the highest priced QB, Lamar feels too cheap given his ceiling. He still ranks 7th in points per drop back, and despite the Ravens slow paced offense, over the last 4 games the Titans have allowed opponents to run just over 70 plays on average to go along with yielding 74.6% of their opponents red zone TD opportunities… this is a potential blow up spot for Lamar and company. Herbert continues to impress this season, despite maybe some “down games” over the Chargers last few, but Herbert is still ranked 9th in points per drop back, is dropping back nearly 42 times per game, and has shown massive ceiling upside as he’s thrown for 300+ yards in 4 of 8 games this year with 4 TDs of 50+ yards and some sneaky rushing upside. Over the last 4 games, the tanking Jets have allowed over 25 points to QBs per game with a pass D that’s ranked dead last in DVOA. Lastly, Deshaun Watson is coming off a horrific game in terrible weather (classic Cleveland), but now gets the Pats at home who rank 30th in Pass DVOA and 31st in Rush DVOA this season. While New England’s slow pace of play always hinders some upside of their opponents, with how bad the Texans defense is, Watson should continue to drop back well over 40 times a game and pick a part a depleted Pats secondary in what I think could be a sneaky shootout if the Texans speed up the game a little bit (Texans rank 11th in pace of play this season).
Favorite Leverage Options: Ben Roethlisberger (7.5% on DK, 6.2% on FD)/Joe Burrow (4.2% on DK, 2.6% on FD)/Alex Smith (4.7% on DK, 5.2% on FD) – Per Mike Leone at EstablishTheRun (very sharp), the Steelers have passed between 10-15% above expectation in their last 4 games despite playing poor defenses and where they, for the most part, had a significant or comfortable lead. Now, Big Ben and company get the Jaguars, who rank 31st in Pass DVOA and have let opponents run just over 66 plays per game over their last 4. The Steelers O-Line (5th ranked) versus the Jaguars D-Line (28th ranked) is Pat Thorman’s top rated OL/DL mismatch of the week, so with all day to throw, Ben should be able to continue to be an efficient QB that people won’t target with no rushing upside, but he has quietly thrown 22 TDs this season (5th most in the NFL). Joe Burrow continues to go under owned and despite the matchup, I will bet on the volume each and every week. Burrow has dropped back the most of any QB in the league to the tune of just under 47 times per game and while the WAS defense has definitely impressed all season, they are susceptible to giving up big pass plays as Stafford/Kyler/Wentz all threw for just under 300 yards against them while Goff went over 300. Add on the fact that the Bengals defense stops no one and both teams rank Top 15 in pace of play, this game could definitely produce more points than the current Vegas total. Lastly, on the other side of the ball, it feels like we may be chasing a bit, but Alex Smith looked pretty solid last week and the aforementioned Bengals defense is horrendous, giving up over 27 fantasy points on average to QBs over their last 4 games and the 3rd most total fantasy points to teams over their last 4 games. In 3 total games this season, Smith has actually thrown for 300+ yards twice but oddly enough only 1 TD so at only 5300 on DK and 6600 on FD, he doesn’t need an explosion to hit value and has some great options in McLaurin/Logan Thomas/McKissic/Antonio Gibson.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Dalvin Cook/Mike Davis/Duke Johnson – He’s going to be mega chalk but man Dalvin is a tough fade this week given his production, volume, and matchup. Cook is facing the Cowboys 28th ranked rush DVOA defense and is not only averaging 21+ touches per game but has added some receiving upside with 2-4 targets per game as well. Cook has forced the most missed tackles of any RB this season (41), ranks 1st in points per snap, and is getting nearly 5 High Value Touches (“HVT) per game. Doesn’t feel great to go back to Davis after he burned me last week, but this matchup couldn’t be much better as Detroit ranks last in RB fantasy points against this season (over 36 per game) and over their last 4 games, have given up an insane 44 fantasy points per game to RBs (also dead last obviously). The Lions are letting opponents run nearly 70 plays per game, rank 3rd to last in RB receiving yards allowed (over 50 per game) and this is all just the matchup… in his own right, Davis is averaging 16.5% of the team’s total targets, has 10 red zone targets on the season, has forced 26 missed tackles (8th among all NFL RBs), and is getting a whopping 6.4 HVTs per game (58 on the season; 2nd to only Kamara’s 85). I’m probably a fish, but I’ll go back to Duke Johnson this week. I didn’t understand why he saw just about zero targets last week, but with a mismatch of the Pats at least somewhat average defensive line versus an awful Texans offensive line, I could see many more dump offs to the DUKE as the Pats are dead last against RB receiving per DVOA.
Favorite Leverage Options: Derrick Henry (5.8% on DK, 9.1% on FD)/Ezekiel Elliott (6.7% on DK, 5.0% on FD)/Damien Harris (3.9% on DK, 5.0% on FD)/Nyheim Hines (3.6% on DK, 3.2% on FD) – Anyone who has read this, heard me on a pod, or talked to me in Discord knows I’m not a fan of Henry and rarely play him but he’s about to be unowned as people pay up for Cook (which makes sense), but Henry has a sneaky good matchup as the Ravens rank highly in rush DVOA but are giving almost 120 rush yards per game this season and have allowed nearly 25 fantasy points to RB over their last 4 games. Despite the Titans most likely trailing in this game, Henry has proven to be mostly game script independent and should continue to get his 22+ rush attempts per game and although a non-factor in the receiving game, is getting a majority of the red zone/inside the 5 yard line work, averages 4 HVTs per game, and has one of the highest overall touch percentage this season of all NFL RBs. I’m all in on Zeke this week and while it has a high chance of burning me, his price is the lowest I’ve ever seen, and the matchup is very strong despite Zeke’s down season and depleted O-line that he’s running behind. It’s a worry that the Cowboys get behind quickly, but Zeke is averaging 5.1 targets per game, 17+ rushes per game, has the 3rd highest total HVTs of RBs on the slate (6.1 per game), and leads RBs on the slate in inside the 5 carries with 16. The Cowboys offensive line is decimated, but the Vikings, per Brandon Thorn, have the 2nd worst defensive line in the league and have allowed 100+ yards per game (or about; 2 games of 96/99) in every game this season with the exception of last week against the Bears. I think with Dalton back this offense will try to run things through Zeke and at this price and multi-TD upside he has slate breaking potential if this game stays competitive. These next 2 guys are riskier in Damien Harris and Nyheim Hines, but Harris has rushed for 100 yards in 3 of 6 games this season and hasn’t scored with Cam taking nearly all the goal line carries. The good: Harris has seen 14 or more rush attempts in 3 straight games, Houston has the worst rush DVOA defense, and Houston has allowed an average of 32 fantasy points over the full season and nearly 35 points to RBs over their last 4 games. The bad: Harris is not involved in the passing game, there is always the threat of Rex Burkhead/James White getting touches all over the field and in the red zone, and Cam takes a lot of the goal line rush work instead of the RBs. He’s risky, but he has high upside if he continues to produce on the ground and can get in the end zone. Lastly, maybe I’m point chasing, but I think Hines is my preferred play here in a game where I THINK the Packers should be leading to go along with the Packers having been shredded by RBs this season (2nd most points allowed to RB over the full season, 4th most over last 4 weeks). Hines is high risk with 2 other RBs in the backfield, but he has 40 HVTs this season, which accounts for over 50% of his total touches all year and is averaging 4+ targets per game. Similarly to how I viewed Swift a few weeks ago, he may not have the lion’s share of touches, but he’s efficient, ranking 5th in points per snap, 2nd in points per touch, and at no ownership/cheap price, he is a great high risk/high reward option.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Davante Adams/Keenan Allen/Jakobi Meyers/Terry McLaurin – Rinse and repeat… Adams is averaging 13 targets over his last 4 games, is 2nd in the league in yards per route run, has 23 red zone targets (most among WRs on the slate), 1st in points per snap, and is matchup proof. Done. Keenan Allen is probably still too cheap as he gets to go against the Jets who rank 4th to last per DVOA against WR1, 2nd to last against WR2, and even without considering matchup, Keenan is getting 27% of the Chargers’ targets (9.7 per game) and ranks 6th among WRs on the slate in Weighted Opportunity (WOPR). Jakobi Meyers could, in theory, be the cheap chalk that busts, but his usage over the last 3 games and sitting at sub 5k on DK and 6k on FD makes him chalk that I’m definitely willing to eat. Meyers has a 38% target share, 61% air yards share, and ranks 3rd among all WRs in yards per route run. I like the WR/CB matchup for him as well as he should be somewhat shadowed by Bradley Roby who has given up 3 TDs so far this season and nearly a 70% catch rate. Lastly, McLaurin always comes in higher than my expected ownership, but he’s shown to not only be matchup proof but QB proof as well. McLaurin’s 9.1 targets per game amount to about 25% of the team’s total targets and to make things better, Cincy has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs over their last 4 games. He has the 6th most air yards in the league among WRs and has caught at least 7 balls in 6 of 9 games this season despite having 3 different QBs in that time frame.
Favorite Leverage Options: JuJu Smith-Schuster (6.1% on DK, 7.2% on FD)/Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd (4.7%/7.9% on DK, 4.3%/7.0% on FD)/Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb (7.3%/2.5% on DK, 5.7%/2.8% on FD)/Mike Williams (4.6% on DK, 5.1% on FD)/Denzel Mims (3.4% on DK, 1.0% on FD)/Chris Conley (1.3% on DK, 0.9% on FD) – A lot of options listed here as I think this week is more spread out than most and there are a TON of both expensive/great WR options as well as a lot of values. JuJu is probably my favorite, as he’s for some reason being seen right now as the WR2 or even the WR3 by some on the Steelers, but has seen 10.5 targets per game over his last 4, has 15 red zone targets on the season, leads the Steelers WRs in end zone targets (6), and is playing over 80% of the Steelers snaps (Claypool/Diontae at around 63%) to go along with a route run on 67% of those snaps. I like Burrow so it would make sense I like his favorite 2 WRs as well. For some reason Boyd is the cheaper one and he has 22 red zone targets this year (2nd most) and 8.3 targets per game. Higgins has 12 red zone targets, 6.7 targets per game, and if we combine the 2, we are getting approximately 40-45% of the total team targets and nearly 50% of the team’s air yards in a game where I think Cincy will be playing catch up, per usual. Another duo that is definitely riskier than the Steelers or Bengals WRs are the Cowboys who have dipped wayyyy down in price to 5400 on DK for Amari and 5000 on DK for Lamb (6900 and 5800 on FD) in what is definitely a plus matchup despite their QB being Dalton. In the 4 games since Dak went down, both Amari and Lamb are each averaging 7 targets per game and now get a Vikings defense that has been bad all year, giving up the 5th most points to WRs during the full season (45-50 points per game). The Vikings are the 5th worst team in slot coverage so we can expect a heavy dose of Lamb while Amari should face off with Chris Jones on the outside, who’s given up a massive 85% catch rate so far this season. Back to the Chargers, Keenan is clearly the alpha in this offense, but let’s not forget about Mike Williams who has a great matchup as well, has seen 30% of the team’s air yards, boasts an impressive 16.2 aDOT, and has seen target counts of 5/8/7 over his last 3 games. Lastly, Mims and Conley are punts I like with Mims being the preferred run back in Chargers game stacks as he’s seeing a whopping 41% air yards share on the Jets, 5.7 targets per game, and playing 90% of the Jets’ snaps. If Shenault sits, I like Conley a lot as the stone min in Steelers game stacks as Conley has quietly seen back to back games of 8 targets in Shenault’s absence.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Mark Andrews/Hunter Henry/Dallas Goedert – What a horrible looking TE week with Andrews the highest priced guy on DK at only 4900 (6500 on FD) and one where I expect Andrews to eat up 15-20% of the ownership and the rest of the TEs to be pretty spread out. Saying someone is “due for positive regression” can often be very noisy, but man… Andrews has the highest air yards share of any TE in the league (24%), is seeing 21% of Lamar’s targets, leads all TE in red zone targets (17), ranks 3rd for TEs on the slate in Targets per route run, and is running a route on 60% of Lamar’s drop backs… whew, something has to give eventually, right? Not sure how chalky I ultimately expect Henry and Goedert to be, but I like both in +EV matchups with Henry finally breaking his TD slump last week and leading all TEs on the slate in total targets this season with 54 (6 per game). Goedert failed as chalk last week as the Eagles and Wentz continue to struggle, but he’s still seeing similar route run % as the Eagles WRs and he draws an above average matchup with Malcolm Smith, who’s given up a 77% catch rate so far this season.
Favorite Leverage Options: Jared Cook (2.8% on DK, 2.5% on FD)/Eric Ebron (5.1% on DK, 5.4% on FD)/Logan Thomas (5.6% on DK, 4.4% on FD) – Jared Cook is incredibly frustrating and now with Taysom “The WOAT” Hill starting this play is less appealing, but Atlanta has given up the most fantasy points per game this season to TEs (over 18 per game), has seen 13 red zone targets (3rd most among TEs on the slate), and ranks 1st in points per snap and 6th in points per touch to go along with a route run on 73% of his snaps, the highest among TEs on the slate. Ebron is never going to have an enormous ceiling and likely needs to score to pay off value, but he continues to out snap Vance McDonald in terms of snaps and routes run and is tied with Cook for red zone targets this season with 13. The entire Jaguars defense sucks, so their rank of bottom 10 in DVOA against TEs checks out and Ebron always carries multi-TD upside. Lastly, and maybe he gets chalkier than I think, Logan Thomas has been resurrected and is seeing consistent targets over his last several games. Thomas is averaging over 5 targets per game this season, with no games of less than 4 targets, and is playing on 88% of Washington’s snaps (runs a route on 62%). Couple this with the fact that he’s dirt cheap on both sites and the Bengals have given up an average of 20.2 fantasy points per game to TEs in their last 4, he’s an elite value option.
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being ATL/NO or NE/HOU. Maybe this slate sucks for high totals, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “should” happen but rather what “could” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
