NFL Week 7 Ownership and Leverage Report

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NFL Week 7 Ownership and Leverage Report

Intro

There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!

Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.

Slate Overview

Week 6 was full of chalk bombs that I was a victim of much like 30-40% of the players in most contests and overall not a great week for my leverage pivots and chalk plays. There were a few good spots, as Tannehill continued to do his thing, RoJo stomped over the Packers poor run defense, and AJ Brown caught 2 TD passes while Higgins went for over 100 yards for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, there was more bad than good, as Stafford had a floor game despite the Lions scoring 34 points, Newton looked awful and out of sorts versus a bad Broncos team, and the aforementioned chalk bomb of the week was Mattison, who did just about nothing after the Vikings got down early. I think last week was frustrating only because I think I targeted the right games but either got unlucky with how points are scored (sounds stupid but that’s what we’re all trying to do, is project who is gonna score), and in the teams with high implied totals scored points but not in the way we, or at least I, expected as the Bucs poured it on but Brady didn’t do much, Gaskin continued to be shut down from the end zone despite clearly being the best back, and for some reason Gesicki has stopped seeing heavy volume when he’s one of the more athletic players in the league…. Short memory and onto Week 7! This slate should be very interesting as with the schedule changes we now have TWELVE games instead of ELEVEN and for the first time in a few years we have the Sunday Night Football game on the main slate and it’s one of the highest projected totals/best games of the week so roster construction should be very fascinating…

Quarterbacks

In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.

As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.

Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Kyler Murray/Deshaun Watson/Matthew Stafford – I wonder how chalk Kyler will end up with the game now being moved to Sunday night but while I think Russ is an elite play each and every week, I will take the $900 savings on Kyler as he faces the teams that’s given up the most DK/FD points on average of any team in the NFL, including 28.5 to QBs and a whopping 64.2 to WRs. Kyler doesn’t have the massive drop backs per game floor that someone like Matt Ryan or Joe Burrow has, but his rushing upside has been insane this year, he ranks 2^nd in points per drop back (behind Russ of course), and Seahawks generate very little pressure (rank 7^th to last per FootballOutsiders in pressure on the QB and Adjusted Sack Rate). After the Texans finally fired arguably one of the worst coaches of all time, Watson has back to back 300+ yard games, has thrown 7 TDs and has scored 25+ DK/FD points in each game as well. Now, Watson finds himself in a game against another high-powered offense that should see the Texans either trailing or in a close matchup and to his advantage, the Packers rank 25^th in DVOA against the pass, 25^th in DVOA against the rush. The obstacles are there, as both teams have a very slow pace of play, the Packers have a decent defensive line against the Texans god awful offensive line, but I will bet on the volume here where I project Watson to drop back 40+ times and be able to utilize Fuller/Cooks/Fells/ and even David Johnson in check downs (Packers dead last in DVOA against receiving to RBs). Lastly, Stafford burns me a lot of the time, but I still always play him… including last week. The Falcons have given up an average of 32.6 DK points per game to QBs (29.9 points on FD), generate the 4^th least amount of pressure on the QB (3.8% adjusted sack rate). Stafford hasn’t been lights out yet this season with zero 300+ yard passing games, but he has been consistent and if looking past the box scores, he has led drives down the field with plenty of momentum but many have ended in short rushing TDs. I think the Lions should be able to crush the Falcons with the pass as no one will have an answer for Golladay/Hockenson and the Lions should be forced into more throws as the Falcons quietly rank 8^th in Rush DVOA.

Favorite Leverage Options: Justin Herbert (6.2% on DK, 5.4% on FD)/Joe Burrow (4.3% on DK, 2.2% on FD)– Only 2 real “leverage” options I like at QB this week as I think ownership should be somewhat spread out but Herbert doesn’t seem to be getting any buzz despite having one of the best matchups on the slate and showing he’s a more than legit QB since he took over under center. In his first 4 games in the NFL, Herbert has a 79.1% adjusted completion percentage, ranks 8^th in points per drop back, and now faces the Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA and dead last in pressure/adjusted sack rate on QBs so far this season. The Jaguars are giving up over 400 yards of offense on average through 6 games this season and I don’t really see how anyone in the secondary is going to get to Herbert or how Keenan/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry as the Jags are the 4^th worst this season at covering slot WRs (where Keenan spends most of his time). Burrow is a stud. 4 300+ yard pass games in his first 6 games as an NFL starter and he just throwing the ball at such a high clip due to his poor defense that he is an amazing bet on volume play each week. The Bengals play at a decently fast pace (10^th in the league) and with addition of Mixon out and a stronger than average Browns D Line I think Burrow should be in like for 45+ drop backs again and can definitely beat the Browns in the slot and on the outside the young duo of Higgins and Boyd.

Running Backs

Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Kareem Hunt/Aaron Jones/Alvin Kamara/Chris Carson – Hunt has seen solid usage since Chubb went down to injury but it has been surprising to see his snap count go down the last few games even before they got down (last week versus PIT), but the spot here is too good to pass up, at least in cash games and as a staple of single entry/3 max lineups. Despite not getting the full bell cow treatment, Hunt still has 20 high value touches (“HVT”; per Ben Gretch, formally of CBS) on the year and ranks 8^th in points per snap and 19^th in points per snap, which includes the time spent with Chubb on the field. Among RBs with at least 20 attempts on the season, Hunt ranks 8^th in PFF’s “Elusive rating,” with 14 avoided tackles before contact, 3.52 yards after contact per attempt, and faces the Bengals that have given up 150+ rushing yards in 4 of 6 games this season. Aaron Jones is so talented but always seems risky to play in DFS due his high price and propensity to get vulture by Jamaal Williams; nevertheless, this matchup can’t really get any better. You want a bounce back spot after facing a very difficult Bucs run D and a thrashing? How about the Texans. The Texans rank 28^th in DVOA against the rush, have given up an insane 34.9 DK points (30.7 FD points) to RBs through 6 games this season, and now get to try and stop Jones, who per Brandon Thorn, have the 4^th best offensive line in the league. Jones has 30 HVTs in 5 games, is averaging 5.4 targets per game (16.5% of his team’s targets; 3^rd most for RBs), has 10 red zone targets (1^st among RBs), and ranks 3^rd among RBs in points per snap. Seems like a good play. Kamara is always a smash play with an insane ceiling and relatively solid floor but now MT might miss AGAIN, and Carolina has been quietly decent against WRs while ranking 26^th in DVOA against the rush and 30^th against RB receptions, giving up 56 yards a game. Kamara averages 8.8 targets per game, ranks 1^st among RBs in points per snap (0.65), 3^rd in points per touch (1.52), and has FORTY NINE HVTs through the Saints first 5 games… his price is too cheap and he’s an elite play in all formats. Lastly, I actually didn’t expect Carson to get as popular with how much the Seahawks throw now, but he’s only 6400 on DK, 7600 on FD, and is 3^rd on his team in targets behind DK/Lockett. Carson is getting 4-5 targets per game, has 28 HVTs through the Seahawks first 5 games, and while the Cardinals are decent against the rush, ranking 9^th per DVOA, they only rank 26^th against RB receiving and if the Seahawks get a lead, Carson could see heavy, heavy volume.

Favorite Leverage Options: James Conner (6.6% on DK, 8.1% on FD)/David Johnson (6.4% on DK, 5.7% on FD)/James White (3.5% on DK, 2.2% on FD)/J.D. McKissic (2.2% on DK, 2.3% on FD) – Never feels that great to play Conner because he hasn’t shown a massive ceiling (I can’t find the stat but over I believe his last 15+ games he’s only topped 30 points once); however, he has played on 61% or more of the snaps in his last 4 games, ranks 12^th in avoided tackles before contact, and the Titans have given up over 100 rushing yards in 3 of their 5 games with the other 2 giving up 95 and 92 rush yards. Due to still relinquishing touches of Benny Snell and company, if the Steelers get a lead they have no issue running the ball and while to hit a true ceiling, you’re probably betting on a multi-TD game from Conner, he does have 22 HVTs on the year and is getting about 20% of the red zone rushes as a whole. I mentioned the Packers D earlier and their struggles against RBs as they rank 25^th in rush DVOA and dead last against RB receiving, giving up nearly 60 yards alone in that category. David Johnson started off the season quite slow and uninvolved, but over his last 3 games he’s seen 18 touches per game, and any worries of Duke Johnson seeing more work has kind of been put to rest as Johnson has played 78% and 76% of the snaps over the last 2 weeks. Alright these next 2 guys are strictly GPP options that will be owned by no one but if playing 5+ entries, they are great savings and can allow you to play a mostly chalkier lineup with a few places to be different. James White is always difficult to trust since the Patriots use so many different guys and with Cam Newton under center, he has taken over a majority of the rushing yards/TDs for the team; however, in 3 games this season, White is averaging 6.4 targets per game, is running a route on 58% of his snaps, and has a 2.56 yards per route run. With all their injuries, the 49ers only rank 23^rd in adjusted sack rate, but after a god awful game against the Broncos, I expect the Pats to continue to be heavy run/dump offs, continue to play slow (both teams rank bottom 12 in pace of play), and in a game that no one will target, White could be a bright spot with TD upside. I will say I prefer him almost exclusively on DK with the full point PPR. Lastly, this is a difficult name to write up because Gibson needs to be freed but clearly Ron Rivera wants to use J.D. McKissic right now… sigh. McKissic is averaging 5.2 targets per game from check down machine Kyle Allen, good for 14.7% of the team’s targets (4^th in the league among RBs), and only has 1 less HVT than Gibson this season (24 vs. 25). Over the last 4 games, McKissic has played on at least 50% of the snaps compared to Gibson, who has played in 44% or less in 3 of 4, and to go along with it, he’s running a route on 68% of his snaps, so until Rivera says Gibson is the guy, I’ll play McKissic and hope he keeps catching a ton of balls at sub 5K and almost no ownership.

Wide Receivers

Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Davante Adams/Keenan Allen/Terry McLaurin/Seahawks – Adams has only played in 3 games this year, and of the 2 that he played the full game, he has seen targets of 17 and 10, with the latter coming mostly in the first half/3 quarters of the game as the Packers were getting blown out and stopped caring. The Packers are great bounce back candidates, Adams should torch the shadow coverage of Bradley Roby, and the Texans have unsurprisingly been thrashed by the likes of AJ Brown, Keelan Cole, Justin Jefferson, and Chase Claypool over the last 4 weeks, who are all a clear tier below the talent of Adams. Really hoping Allen plays in this game because in 5 games, which includes 1 where he went out with an injury in the 1^st quarter, he’s seeing 9.4 targets per game, good for nearly 29% of the Chargers’ total targets and as I mentioned above, the Jaguars have been killed by slot WRs this season, giving up 17 PPR points per game, or about 3 points higher than the league average. Per PFF, Allen has the 4^th biggest advantage in WR/CB matchup this week and if healthy he should eat alllllllllllll game. Terry McLaurin is really good, and the Cowboys defense is really bad. We could honestly just stop there, but let’s just dive a little deeper… McLaurin is averaging 9.2 targets per game (26% of the WFT total targets and 47% of their WR targets), has 8 red zone targets, and is actually UNDERperforming in terms of expected fantasy points… LOL smash play at only 5800 on DK, and 7100 on FD. Both DK Metcalf and Lockett are elite plays in their matchup and stacking both seems like a good idea as they combine for about 15-20 targets per game (46% of the team targets and 75% of the Seahawks WR targets). If choosing one, I would probably prefer Lockett as I think he’ll be slightly less owned and gets a great slot matchup against Byron Murphy, in which the Cardinals have given up 16.3 PPR points on average to slot WRs this season.

Favorite Leverage Options: Calvin Ridley (7.1% on DK, 7.4% on FD)/Will Fuller (6.3% on DK, 10.0% on FD)/Keelan Cole (1.8% on DK, 2.1% on FD)/Tyler Boyd (4.2% on DK, 4.5% on FD)/Tee Higgins (6.5% on DK, 5.9% on FD)/MVS (6.5% on DK, 5.6% on FD) – Very surprising to see this projected ownership on Ridley, but I guess after a big Julio game, everyone is back on that train… Ridley still saw 7 targets last week, caught a TD, and now has scored 19 or more DK points in 5 of his 6 games this season. This week Ridley gets a prime matchup against a horrific Jeffrey Okudah who has given up 2.4 yards per route covered this season (per PFF), which is about 2^nd worst in the league. Give me Ridley’s 9 targets per game + 17 red zone targets this week at what I think is much too low projected ownership. Fuller is finally in the price range that he probably should be and I think his ownership is much lower because of it, but I think this spot is still fantastic. He ranks 5^th in Air Yards among the WRs on the slate, 4^th in red zone opportunities, and is one of the few WRs in my opinion that consistently has the multi-TD upside with how speedy he is to make big plays. Keelan Cole may seem like an odd guy to target with how solid DJ Chark is but Cole has been feasting the last few weeks and now gets his best matchup of the season. The Chargers are last in the league against slot WRs, giving up 18.2 PPR points on average, or 4 more points than the NFL average. Cole hasn’t seen less than 5 targets in a game this season, is averaging 6 per game, and has seen 11 red zone targets compared to Chark’s 9 red zone targets. Despite playing about the same percentage of snaps, Cole has run a route on 75.7% of his, which is good for 2^nd most among WRs on the slate, and at only 4700 on DK and 5500 on FD, he has the potential for a blow up spot at little to no ownership. As I was writing this, Joe Mixon was ruled out which should make him mega chalk at only 4500 on DK (4800 on FD) as the presumed lead back, but I have much more interest in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. This duo has 54% of Bengals’ air yards and 41% of the target share through their first 6 games and the Browns have given up the 6^th most DK/FD points to WRs, with about 46.3 DK and 37.9 FD points on average. The Bengals have a terrible defense so combining Burrow’s lead leading 47.3 drop backs per game (including 60+ against their first against the Browns), the Browns weak coverage in the slot (4^th worst), I think this is a great spot to pivot from Gio and attack the Browns through the air instead of against their solid rush defense. Lastly, as Lazard remains out, MVS gets to face the 4^th worst defense against WR2s, per DVOA, as Houston should try to shadow Adams with Roby which may leave some open field for the de facto WR2 Scantling. Granted a few of these were without Adams, but MVS has averaged 6 targets per game this season and is due for some decent regression as he has scored about 2.5 less than his expected points (per Scott Barrett, FantasyPoints). MVS and Adams are the only WRs on the roster playing over 70% of the Packers snaps right now so I think at a dirt-cheap price on both sites he definitely has upside as a high risk/high reward play.

Tight Ends

Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Hunter Henry/T.J. Hockenson – I’ve said this multiple weeks, but TE shouldn’t be too chalky compared to other positions but I do think Henry/Hockenson end up as 2 of the highest owned most likely along with Kelce and Kittle. Henry has played on 87% of the Chargers snaps this year, has run a route on 50.2% of those snaps, and ranks 12^th among TEs on the slate in Targets per route run (0.21; averaging 6.6 targets per game, 20% of the Chargers targets). The Chargers quietly have the 6^th highest implied team total on the slate and the Jaguars rank 23^rd in DVOA against TEs so far this season. Hockenson is always frustrating as he should be more involved than he is but what a spot he has this week against the putrid Falcons D that’s allowing 21.1 DK and 17.6 FD points on average to TEs. Hock is seeing 5 targets per game, leads the slate for TEs in red zone targets with 11, and ranks just behind Henry in Targets per route run, with 0.19 through the Lions first 5 games. Jesse James has seen a snap increase the last few games, but Hock still plays 70% of the snaps compared to James’ 51% and is running a route on 55% of his snaps compared to James’ 34% so I’m not incredibly worried.

Favorite Leverage Options: Eric Ebron (4.1% on DK, 4.3% on FD)/Dalton Schultz (4.0% on DK, 3.6% on FD) –  Ebron is frustrating because you mostly need him to catch a TD to really hit value and last week he did next to nothing after the Steelers got a big lead and didn’t really need to throw, but in the 3 games before where the Steelers found themselves in close games, Ebron had target counts of 5/7/6 and Titans have given up the 7^th most fantasy points to TEs so far this season. Sure, he doesn’t have Dak throwing to him anymore, but Dalton Schultz has really thrived with Jarwin out for the season, as he has the 3^rd most targets of any TE on the slate, averaging 5.8 per game to go along with 8 red zone targets. The WFT has a pretty strong defensive line but rank dead last in DVOA against TEs and have given up on average 17.3 DK and 14.1 FD points per game to the position. Again, it’s different with Dalton, but Dalton is not worse than a few other QBs on the slate and since Week 2, Schultz is averaging over 60 yards per game (WFT is giving up almost 70 on average to TEs), and seems to cheap at 3900 on DK and 5200 on FD.

Final Thoughts

Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).

I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being SEA/ARI, ATL/DET, GB/HOU, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!