Cam Newton/Christian McCaffrey/D.J. Moore
The Carolina Panthers have seen ranging amounts of success this season, ranking 15th in the NFL in total yards (360.2) and 11th in points (26.0) per game. They get a tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who have found defensive success this season. They are currently allowing 348.1 total yards and 21.6 points per game, which both rank above average in the NFL this season. Still, the Panthers are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 47 points, and they feature an implied total of 25.3 points.
Cam Newton has found quite a bit of success this season because of his versatility as a quarterback. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 244.3 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. Newton is also averaging 35.4 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game on the ground this season. His top target this season has been Christian McCaffrey, who has recorded a team-high 71 targets this season. McCaffrey also leads the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns, while ranking second in receiving yards. Overall, McCaffrey is averaging 112.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 19.6 touches per game. Similarly to Newton, McCaffrey is a safe option, who also comes with tremendous upside, as this duo is the focal point of the offense. D.J. Moore is a riskier option, who adds tremendous upside to this stack for a cheap price tag. He’s coming off of his best game of the season, totaling seven receptions for 157 yards and one touchdown on eight targets. He gets an elite matchup against Shaquill Griffin, which you can read more about in my WR/CB Matchups article. Moore should continue to see similar snaps regardless of the status of Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith, who are both dealing with injuries.
Jameis Winston/Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFL in passing yards (361.0) per game by a wide margin. They’re averaging 45.0 more passing yards per game than the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank second in the NFL. Tampa Bay has also totaled 25 passing touchdowns this season, which ranks fourth in the NFL. They get a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who are only allowing 242.0 passing yards per game this season. With that being said, they have allowed 21 passing touchdowns, while recording only two interceptions this season. The Bucs are also -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 54.5 points, giving them one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 29.3 points.
Jameis Winston has only played two full games this season, but he has played in five games total. In his two full starts, Winston is averaging 30.9 DK points per game. Even in limited time on the field, Winston is averaging 276.0 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns on 32.8 pass attempts per game. He’s also averaging 25.0 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per game on the ground this season. Mike Evans has struggled with Winston in the lineup, but he posted a 6/120/1 line on seven targets last week. Through 10 games, Evans is averaging 5.6 receptions for 95.7 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He should continue to be peppered with targets, and could dominate in a plus matchup against the defense. DeSean Jackson has also found plenty of success this season, although he has somewhat split snaps with Chris Godwin. Jackson is averaging a 3.7/73.1/0.4 line on 6.2 targets per game. Jackson’s big play ability adds tremendous upside to this value, especially in terms of stacking with Winston.
Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton/Jack Doyle
The Indianapolis Colts have featured an above average passing offense this season, ranking 10th in the NFL in passing yards (269.0) per game. They also rank second in the league, behind only the Kansas City Chiefs, in passing touchdowns (29) this season. They get a solid matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who are allowing 250.0 passing yards per game this season. Miami has also allowed 18 passing touchdowns, while recording 15 interceptions this season. They have allowed 27+ points in six of their last seven games, and the Colts are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 51 points. They enter this game with a 29.3 implied total, which is the highest on the slate.
Andrew Luck has been playing at an extremely high level for quite some time, scoring three or more touchdowns in seven consecutive games. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 276.9 yards and 2.9 touchdowns on 40.0 pass attempts per game. He has also scored 20+ DK points in each of his last seven games, including a 39.66 DK point performance against the Houston Texans. T.Y. Hilton is coming off of his best game of the season, totaling nine receptions for 155 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets. He has only played eight games this season, but he’s averaging 4.8 receptions for 73.1 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 7.9 targets per game. Hilton is leading the team in targets per game, and that is likely to continue this week. Jack Doyle is another player that has found success this season, but has dealt with injuries. He has only played in five games, averaging 4.4 receptions for 45.8 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on 5.8 targets per game. He is the clear top tight end, recording four targets as opposed to Eric Ebron’s zero last week. Miami ranks as a below average defense against the tight end, and Doyle is one of the safest tight ends on this slate for his price tag.
High Upside GPP Stack
Tom Brady/Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon
The New England Patriots have featured a more balanced offense this season, but they still rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards (269.0) per games. Surprisingly, the Patriots have only totaled 17 passing touchdowns this season. They get a matchup against the New York Jets, who are allowing 242.0 passing yards per game this season. They have allowed 17 passing touchdowns, as well, while recording 10 interceptions. The Patriots are -9.5 point favorites in a game set at 46 points, and they own an implied total of 27.8 points this weekend.
Tom Brady hasn’t been as dominant as he normally is this season, but he has flashed tremendous upside. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 274.8 yards and 1.7 touchdowns on 37.1 pass attempts per game. Brady has also ran for two touchdowns this season, adding to his potential upside in the right situation. Rob Gronkowski is expected to return this week, which could lower the ownership on Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon. Edelman has been a major part of the offense, recording 10+ targets in each of his last three games. In those games, he’s averaging 8.0 receptions for 93.0 yards per game. He has failed to record a touchdown in any of those games, but has scored twice in his six games this season. Gordon has also taken on a new role for New England, totaling nine receptions for 221 yards and one touchdown on 22 targets. Edelman and Gordon could potentially lose targets to Gronkowski this week, but they both get elite matchups, and could see more efficient production. The wide spread could cause people to avoid the Patriots offense, but Brady has attempted 35+ passes in all but one game this season, and they could be looking to make a statement after getting blown out by the Tennessee Titans last weekend.
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