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Course: Bay Hill Country Club, Windermere, FL

Fast Facts

• Bay Hill Par 72; ≈ 7400 yards
• Average Cut: +3
• Field: 120 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • PGA National (Honda Classic)
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo)
  • TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management
  • TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS)
• Top Course Fits: Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Gary Woodland

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yard approaches)
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)
• SG: OTT/Driving Distance
• Scrambling
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: Par 4s 450-500

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (16 players):

Plays

1) Scottie Scheffler ($10,600) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 3^rd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 4^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 2^nd

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th/17^th // 10^th/4^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 51^st // 11^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 7^th // 1^st // 20^th // 25^th // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 15^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 12^th

Notes: In tremendous form and finally got that first win off his back; ranks 3^rd in the field T2G, 1^st on P4s 450-500, Top 15 in Par 5 scoring (4 this week), 1^st in BoB, and limited course history, yes, but did finish T15 in his only start here 2 years ago; with the stud names up top, I think he comes in underowned compared to his winning upside with the likes of Rahm/Rory/Hovland/Hideki right around him

2) Adam Scott ($9,000) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 37^th // 13^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 5^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 3^rd

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 47^th/12^th // 30^th/7^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 35^th // 8^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 8^th

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 33^rd // 9^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 4^th // 38^th // 9^th // 10^th // 37^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // 41^st // 12^th // 35^th // 3^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 10^th

Notes: Continues his strong recent form with now 3 T10s or better in his last 4 starts; mixed course history, but I want to play Scott when he’s firing on all cylinders; has gained strokes on APP in 3 straight measured events and 9 of his last 10 and as I say with other “bad putters,” we are playing him hoping for those spike weeks (Genesis gained 7.2 strokes putting and finished T4), not because we expect him to light it up on the greens each week… great set up and actually putts better on fast greens historically

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Russell Henley ($8,500) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 35^th // 11^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th // 8^th

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 72^nd/14^th // 72^nd/15^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 32^nd // 7^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 6^th

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 69^th (nice) // 14^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 33^rd // 14^th // 2^nd // 22^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 45^th // MC // 49^th // MC // MC (note; last start was in 2017)

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 31^st

Notes: Henley is probably overpriced compared to his win equity/upside to those around him and his mediocre course history; however, he still rates out well in my stat model and hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Open Championship (mid-July); Top 15 in the field in SG: Par 5s, his best putting surface by far is Bermuda, and he should be very low-owned with chalk Homa/Kokrak/Casey/Mitchell near his price

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Rory McIlroy → pOWN%: 23%

Play/Fade/Context: I like Rory, as I assume most everyone else playing DFS will too, but as I always write with any mega-chalk players, there’s always merit to fading in GPPs due to the general volatility with golf and Rory being only $300 cheaper than Rahm this week; no glaring weaknesses in his game, his short game has looked better, etc, etc.; the only thing limiting my interesting is the pOWN%

Will Zalatoris → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: Ranks 2^nd in the field 2G, 1^st in SG: APP, 16^th in Driving Distance, 2^nd in Bogey Avoidance… as I’ve said with him a few times this season, it’s all about the short game and while fading him has burned me several times, what’s one more? I may play Willy Z in cash where I expect he’ll be very owned and take my chances fading in GPPs… TBD, so check back for Final Thoughts on Wednesday afternoon!

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: I know how good his course history is with I believe 3 straight T10s at this event but Fitz at 9k and 20+% ownership… no thanks; I don’ think he has the same upside as several guys in his price range and while he’s clearly an elite putter more times than not, I would rather rely on historical ball-striking with an Adam Scott/Marc Leishman, etc. over Fitz

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: We play Jon Rahm always… but we definitely play him when he’s not even going to be one of the highest owned players; Rahm lost over 2 strokes putting in each of his last 2 events and still mustered a T10 and a T21… with how good he is, I don’t care about zero course history as he can storm any field by 10 shots

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (36 players):

Plays

1) Justin Rose ($7,700) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 75^th // 30^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 54^th // 21^st

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 15^th

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 55^th/22^nd // 58^th/16^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 49^th // 19^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 17^th // 7^th

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 62^nd // 6^th // 33^rd // 9^th // 12^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – WD // MC // 63^rd // 3^rd // 13^th // 9^th // MC // 2^nd // 15^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 5

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Had a horrible tournament at Pebble, finishing T62, but has now made his last 12 cuts in a row worldwide with a lot of experience at this course: 9 starts and 5 T20s or better; with limited starts on the PGA this season I think his stats will look negatively skewed but I’ll rely on his long-term form as a great putter and great on Par 4s 450-500

2) Corey Conners ($7,600) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 11^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 64^th // 25^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 63^rd // 24^th

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th/6^th // 48^th/15^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 113^th // 35^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th // 15^th

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 39^th // 19^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 38^th // MC // MC // 11^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 3^rd // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 36^th

Notes: A few bad tournaments on APP and now Conners feels way too cheap; T3 finish here last year and while the recent form/stats aren’t typical for Conners (lost strokes on APP in his last 2), I will view him like Justin Rose where I think his long-term stats and ability outweighs a few bad rounds; as long as he isn’t missing a ton of greens and has to rely on his around the green game (biggest weakness by far), I like his value and upside at only 7600

3) Lanto Griffin ($7,100) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 9^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 10^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 8^th

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 41^st/17^th // 41^st/12^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 59^th // 22^nd

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 8^th

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 39^th // 16^th // 30^th // 3^rd // 40^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 21^st // 36^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 54^th

Notes: Playing quite well so not sure why his price dropped to 7100… made 8 straight cuts with a T6/T7/T3/T16 in that time frame, has gained strokes T2G in 5 straight events; further, his putting has been strong and consistent, gaining his last 4 events, and historically is on his best surface in Bermuda

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Seamus Power ($7,600) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 17^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 61^st // 23^rd

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 12^th

• SG: OTT/Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th/15^th // 23^rd/8^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 4^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th

• SG Par 4s 450-500 – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th // 15^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 9^th // 14^th // 3^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 66^th

Notes: Normally I prefer Power in weaker fields, as that’s what he’s done a lot of his damage, but I do think he’s much better than his DK price indicates; missed his last 2 cuts but before that had 5 straight finishes of T15 or better, including a T3 and T4, he ranks 5^th in the field in Par 5 scoring, and has a great short game: 13^th in Scrambling and 27^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Keith Mitchell → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: I really like Mitchell’s form, I really like the course set up and his stats for Bay Hill, but I do hate the pOWN% we’re getting here… 10^th in the field in SG: T2G, 2^nd SG: OTT, 7^th SG: Par 5s, 5^th BoB, and 15^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda; Mitchell has gained strokes T2G in 9 of his last 10 measured events and while I think I will still play some of him, I definitely think he’s worth pivoting off of in GPPs to lesser owned guys around him

Christiaan Bezuidenhout → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: I like Bez like everyone else does as he seemingly sets up well for most courses; great putter, great driving accuracy, but at inflated ownership I am fine fading… has 1 T15 finish or better in his last 6 starts and while an elite cut maker (made 34 of last 36 worldwide cuts), at 8k and high pOWN%, I would need more upside for GPPs

Paul Casey → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: Chalk Paul Casey we meet again… for the millionth time; Casey has 5 straight T25 or better finishes coming into Bay Hill, and while he has played Bay Hill sporadically over the last decade, he has 2 T10 finishes in his last 3 here… could he fail? Absolutely, but if nothing else, I think he’s a “safe” and solid floor play for cash games

OTHERS I LIKE: Chris Kirk // Keegan Bradley // Sebastian Munoz

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (68 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Andrew Putnam ($6,900) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Rates out well in my stat model as he’s 15^th in the field in SG: APP and Top 40 in BoB Gained, SG: Par 5s, and SG: P4s 450-500; his biggest weakness is his OTT and Driving Distance, where he’s bottom 20 in the field; however, we’ve seen short hitters (Molinari/Hatton) win/contend here and Putnam ranks 22^nd in the field in Scrambling, 23^rd in SG: Putting on Bermuda, and finished T4 at Bay Hill last year

2) Nick Taylor ($6,700) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Had a horrific 1^st round last week but battled back to make the cut and had a ho-hum weekend; Taylor has a T16 and a T14 in 2 of his last 3 starts, ranks 34^th in SG: T2G, and Top 40 in SG: APP (200+) and SG: OTT

3) Pat Perez ($6,600) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Very up and down player but only 6600 is a strong value for someone I expect to make the cut; Perez ranks 25^th in the field T2G, 31^st SG: APP, 18^th in SG: Par 5s, and 20^th in BoB; similar to Putnam, Perez’s lack of distance/poor OTT game can hold him back; no elite finishes, but Perez has played Bay Hill 8 times, making the cut 5/8 and 3 of his last 4 with a T17 a few years ago

4) Sean O’Hair ($6,200) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Total punt here but O’Hair has a T7 and a T10 in 2 of his last 5 starts at Bay Hill (yes they were many years ago), but he’s 19^th in the field in Par 5 Scoring, 23^rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 17^th in Scrambling; O’Hair is obviously just a large field GPP punt but he is 45^th in my course fit model and near the in at only 6200

 

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Rory McIlroy

3) Will Zalatoris

4) Adam Scott

5) Paul Casey

6) Corey Conners

7) Seamus Power

8) Luke List

9) Lanto Griffin

10) Sebastian Munoz

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 15% Course History

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Adam Scott
4. Keith Mitchell
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Matt Fitzpatrick
7. Luke List
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Jon Rahm (LOL; he’s the real #1, but has zero course history so takes a bump)
10. Will Zalatoris
11. Marc Leishman
12. Tom Hoge
13. Sungjae Im
14. Billy Horschel
15. Cameron Young
16. Tyrrell Hatton
17. Max Homa
18. Paul Casey
19. Lanto Griffin
20. Chris Kirk