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Course: TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, TX

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7400-7500 yards
• Average Cut: -6 (1 year)
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • CC of Jackson (Sanderson Farms)
  • Cocoa Beach GC (Puerto Rico Open)
  • Silverado Resort (Fortinet Championship)
  • Trinity Forest (former AT&T Byron Nelson)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Charl Schwartzel, Justin Thomas, Cameron Champ, Hideki Matsuyama, Matthew Wolff, Chez Reavie, Sam Burns, Brandon Wu, Emiliano Grillo, Patrick Rodgers

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (175+ yards emphasis)
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• SG: Putting
• SG: Par 4s 450+

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (13 players):

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,600) → pOWN%: 24%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 1^st
• SG: Approach → 1^st
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 6^th
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 22^nd
• SG: Putting → 40^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 24^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 8^th // 35^th // 3^rd // 33^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd  

Notes: Best player in the field T2G, best on APP, and has not missed a cut since the PGA Championship in May of 2021… the fact that he hasn’t won since the PLAYERS in March of 2021 seems shocking to me (and many others I presume) as JT has racked up 8 T10 or better finishes since then and has been consistent as you could reasonably ask for, gaining strokes on APP in 17 of his 18 last starts T2G in 17 of his last 18, and OTT in 16 of his last 18… if he has a spike putting week he can torch this field

2) Jordan Spieth ($10,100) → pOWN%: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 4^th
• SG: Approach → 10^th
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 48^th
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 28^th
• SG: Putting → 139^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 47^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 1^st // MC // 35^th // 35^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 9^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 40^th

Notes: Spieth has had a somewhat up and down season but is coming off a win at the RBC Heritage in which he lost 2.5 strokes putting en route to victory… the putter continues to give him fits but with the ball striking at a supreme level right now, if he fixes the putter and all else remains equal… talk about torching a field… as a bonus, Spieth is historically a great player in Texas with wins at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Valero Texas Open and 8 other T10s or better in Texas events

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 8^th
• SG: Approach → 5^th
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 9^th
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 31^st
• SG: Putting → 64^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 33^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 14^th // WD // 20^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 39^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 4^th

Notes: I have no idea on the status of the injury he’s been battling, but removing his recent WD, Hideki has made his last 13 cuts with 2 wins and more recently, has a T8/T20/T14 in 3 of his last 4 starts on TOUR; we all know the putter can be terrible, but he has gained strokes with the flat stick in 4 of his last 6, he can get VERY hot and rack up birdies (required at easier tracks like this), and usually goes overlooked in favor of guys around him (such as Zalatoris/Burns/Spieth/JT this week)

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Sam Burns → pOWN%: 26%

Play/Fade/Context: Burns should rate out well in just about everyone’s stat model, including mine, as there’s not much to not like… came runner up here last year, can make a TON of birdies, and ranks Top 25 in the field T2G, APP, Driving Distance, and SG: P4s 450+… further, he’s first in the field in SG: P and 9^th in Bob… at this ownership I lean towards a fade as I already like several other chalky guys combined with Burns being more volatile than those around him in the more expensive 9-10k range

Will Zalatoris → pOWN%: 23%

Play/Fade/Context: I never play Willy Z so I’m sure if I hop on this week he’ll implode, but can’t ignore the last 3 starts of T4/T6/T5 along with ranking 1^st in the field in SG: Ball Striking, 3^rd SG: T2G, 2^nd SG: APP, 2^nd SG: OTT, and 2^nd BoB… ownership is a factor but it certainly feels like Willy is close to a first win

Scottie Scheffler → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: Plain and simple I decided to go with JT over Scottie to save a few hundred and based on nothing more than a narrative, I like JT’s odds to win over Scheffler given Scottie’s epic run of wins and JT coming close several times over the last year and not grabbing a win

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (48 players):

Plays

1) Aaron Wise ($8,100) → pOWN%: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 2^nd
• SG: Approach → 6^th
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 20^th
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 7^th
• SG: Putting → 106^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 21^st // MC // 50^th // 17^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 55^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 60^th

Notes: Wise is ranking uncomfortably well for me this week… 2^nd in the field T2G, 6^th SG: APP, 7^th SG: OTT, 20^th BoB, 11^th on P4s 450+, and coming off a T6/T21 in his last 2 starts; the putter continues to be real bad; however, 1) we don’t need him to “win” at this price and 2) if he can keep up the brilliant ball striking, even an average putter week gives him T10 or better upside

2) Lanto Griffin ($7,700) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 27^th
• SG: Approach → 20^th
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 33^rd
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 15^th
• SG: Putting → 61^st
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 16^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 15^th // MC // 53^rd // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 51^st

Notes: The glaring weakness in Lanto’s game has been ARG, where he’s lost strokes in 7 straight events; however, I think ARG play is pretty mitigated at this course and Lanto has gained 5+ strokes T2G in 3 of his last 4 events, gained 4+ strokes OTT in his last 2, and 3+ strokes gained on APP in 3 of his last 4

3) Brandon Wu ($7,000) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 59^th
• SG: Approach → 25^th
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 22^nd
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 41^st
• SG: Putting → 20^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 69^th (nice)

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 2^nd // 21^st // 28^th // 33^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Burned me with his first MC in 4 starts last time out (classic), but similar to Lanto, what’s hurt him is the ARG game while the ball striking has been strong, especially for only a 7k price tag; Wu hits a ton of greens (3^rd in the field in GIRs Gained), ranks Top 30 in SG: BS, SG: APP, BoB, and Bogey Avoidance and ranks 20^th in the field in SG: Putting

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) J.J. Spaun ($7,200) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 21^st
• SG: Approach → 46^th
• Birdie-or-Better Gained → 21^st
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 8^th
• SG: Putting → 94^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 89^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 23^rd // 1^st // 27^th // MC  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 47^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 85^th

Notes: Coming off a big win before the Masters I expected regression for Spaun but he played great in his first Augusta trip, finishing T23; a MC at the Heritage doesn’t worry me, should keep his pOWN% down, and the stats are very strong for only 7200; Spaun has gained OTT in 6 straight events (and 11 of his last 12 events) and while his putter will fall flat more often than not, I will gladly be overweight on his consistency and recency bias after just 1 MC and only 3 MC all year (including one at the stacked PLAYERS field and one at the Genesis, a strong invitational field)

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

N/A → pOWN%:

Play/Fade/Context:

N/A → pOWN%:

Play/Fade/Context:

OTHERS I LIKE: Jhonattan Vegas // Adam Hadwin // Alex Noren // Sepp Straka // Kurt Kitayama

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (91 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Adam Schenk ($6,500) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: The putter, even for him, has been beyond bad but he still rates out decently at only 6500, gaining strokes OTT in his last 3 and coming off a T9 at the Wells Fargo last week; Schenk is very volatile and misses a ton of cuts, but at his price we are just looking for a made cut with some upside which Schenk has if he can avoid the big numbers and not lose 3 or more strokes putting

2) Adam Svensson ($6,400) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: I suppose I’ll keep playing Svensson as I have to assume he can’t miss every 3-5 foot putter EVERY week… his T2G game has been solid, OTT and APP have been solid, but he just sucks at putting; he comes with a lot of risk, but Svensson can rack up birdies and ranks 15^th in the field in SG: APP and 35^th in SG: Ball Striking

3) Michael Gligic ($6,200) → pOWN%: <1%

Quick Hits: Mega punt but Gligic is near the min, historically (small sample) does his best putting on Bent surfaces, and while he has no great finishes, came T37/T24 over his last 2 events gaining over 4 strokes T2G in each of those starts as well as gaining OTT in both

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Jordan Spieth

3) Will Zalatoris

4) Aaron Wise

5) Adam Hadwin

6) Brian Harman

7) Sepp Straka

8) Mito Pereira

9) Kurt Kitayama

10) C.T. Pan

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 15% of my course comp model ranking, and 5% Course History

1. Justin Thomas
2. Sam Burns
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Adam Hadwin
6. Will Zalatoris
7. Jordan Spieth
8. Jhonattan Vegas
9. Brian Harman
10. Aaron Wise
11. Kurt Kitayama
12. Alex Noren
13. Xander Schauffele
14. Adam Scott
15. Sepp Straka
16. Talor Gooch
17. Cameron Champ
18. Matt Kuchar
19. Brandon Wu
20. Joaquin Niemann