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Course: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, GA

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7475 yards
• Fairways: Bermuda
• Rough: Rye and Bluegrass
• Greens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)
• Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)
• Water Hazards: 6
• Field: 91 players; Cut is Top 50 and ties
• 18 Hole Stroke Average: 73.59 (+1.59 OVER par)
• Average Cutline over the last 10 years: +5
• Par 5 Scoring Key with nearly 40% of DK points coming from Par 5s and all playing under par
• Corollary Courses:
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Champ)
  • Riviera CC (Genesis Invitational)
  • Club de Chapultepec (WGC – Mexico)
  • Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
  • Muirfield Village GC (The Memorial Tournament)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Justin Thomas

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Fast/Bentgrass)
• Augusta Course History
• SG: Par 5s
• Birdie-or-Better Gained

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (21 players):

Plays

1) Dustin Johnson ($10,500) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th // 14^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 12^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 5^th

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 5^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 16^th // 7^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 3^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 4^th // 39^th // 9^th // MC // 25^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – MC // 1^st // 2^nd // 10^th // 4^th // 6^th // MC // 13^th

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 3

Top 10s: 5

Top 20s: 6

Course History Rank: 4^th

Notes: I thought about putting JT here as he very well may be my pick to win but I opted for a less chalky option in DJ who I think could get semi-squeezed in pOWN% being right between a chalky JT/Rahm; DJ has been rounding into form with 2 T10s in his last 3 starts and obviously has some of the best course history of anyone in the field with 5 T10s, the course record, and only 1 MC in 8 starts; DJ looked a little off towards the latter half of 2021 but his ball striking has come back, we know he can get HOT in a moment’s notice and is an elite scorer on Par 5s with his Driving Distance (6^th in the field in DD)

2) Shane Lowry ($8,800) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 5^th         

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 1^st          

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 26^th // 11^th

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 17^th // 8^th  

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 14^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 12^th // 13^th // 2^nd // 24^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 21^st // 25^th // MC // MC // 39^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course History Rank: 42^nd

Notes: Lowry has finished T21/T25 in his last 2 Augusta starts, has finished T25 or better in seven straight (stroke play) events with 6 T15s or better, and his stats are some of the best in the field; Lowry ranks Top 10 in the field in T2G/APP/Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling and comes into the event gaining strokes T2G/OTT/APP/Putting in his last 3 starts

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Daniel Berger ($9,000) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 7^th         

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th // 13^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 40^th // 15^th

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 22^nd // 6^th  

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 59^th // 16^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 29^th // 14^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 13^th // 4^th // MC // 20^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 32^nd // 27^th // 10^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course History Rank: 37^th

Notes: I liked Berger as someone to win this event a few months ago and while this event feels particularly wide open this year, Berger’s form is strong for 9k and what seems like lower pOWN% than I was predicting… Berger has only missed 1 cut since last year’s Masters and although he hasn’t had much success in the past, I think his game sets up well for Augusta; the biggest knock on Berger is his par 5 scoring and driving distance as he’s in the bottom half in the field in both categories, but his short game is immaculate, ranking 2^nd in Bogey Avoidance and 1^st in Scrambling

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Justin Thomas → pOWN%: 21%

Play/Fade/Context: Continues to get more and more buzz, and rightfully so in my opinion, so I have to be consistent in that any player that gets to pOWN% of 20-25% or more is worthy of a GPP fade; however, it’s tough with JT to recommend that with his form coming in as he has made every cut since May of 2021 with 5 T6s or better in his last 7… ranks 1^st in the field in SG: T2G, 1^st SG: APP, 5^th SG: OTT, 5^th SG: Par 5s, 5^th BoB, 1^st Bogey Avoidance… just needs to be average with the putter!

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: Continues to struggle this year with the putter but hard to ever make an argument against playing Rahm… he’s an elite ball striker and his Augusta history is immaculate with finishes of T5/T7/T9/T4 over his last 4 starts; I prefer JT to Rahm but similar to DJ, Rahm is more than capable of showing up and being on fire in all aspects of his game if he can manage his temper/avoid big numbers

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: No issue with Xander but I probably will end up fading mostly due to 1) I can’t play anyone and 2) I think as usual in majors he will get more ownership than I or others project… Xander has no weakness in his game, he has strong course history, and the only below average stat is his ARG game, which he ranks 60^th in the field

Will Zalatoris → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: It didn’t seem to matter last year when he gained (unofficially) over 9 strokes putting but in general I don’t trust his short game (as most don’t) and I think he’ll be too popular for someone who’s 9200 and hasn’t officially won a PGA event yet… I prefer Berger/Brooks/Cantlay in that price range and while Zalatoris is a stud, I’ll go elsewhere this week and hope the putter fails him

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (25 players):

Plays

1) Joaquin Niemann ($8,200) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 2^nd // 1^st         

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 17^th // 6^th  

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 9^th  

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 65^th // 23^rd

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 8^th       

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 2^nd   

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 22^nd // MC // 1^st // 6^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 40^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course History Rank: 63^rd

Notes: Similar to most guys I like, Niemann’s week will likely come down to his putter but I love his form with a win/T6/T22 in 3 of his last 4, and like to see that he’s gained strokes OTT in 5 straight events, gained strokes ARG in 5 straight, and gained on APP in 4 of his last 5; I wish he had more reps at Augusta, but as a below-average putter, Niemann’s best surface (only surface he’s historically gained strokes putting) is Bent, and if he keeps up his supreme ball striking, I think he has winning upside

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th // 17^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 7^th          

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 14^th

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 2^nd  

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 3^rd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 3^rd   

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 9^th // 21^st // 13^th // 2^nd // 4^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 18^th // MC // 56^th // 44^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course History Rank: 48^th

Notes: Coming into Augusta in very solid form with a T2/T13/T21 in his last 3 starts and gaining strokes on APP and Putting in all 3 of those finishes; Hatton has very mixed history here but did finish T18 last year and his game should fit the course well; Hatton ranks 3^rd in the field in Par 5 scoring, 7^th BoB, and 3^rd in SG: Putting on Bent/Fast greens and maybe as important, he’s top 10 in the field in 3-putt avoidance

3) Si Woo Kim ($7,100) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 10^th         

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 52^nd // 23^rd

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 8^th  

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 85^th // 29^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 15^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 40^th // 17^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // 18^th // WD // 26^th // 73^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 12^th // 34^th // 21^st // 24^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course History Rank: 36^th

Notes: Definitely getting some buzz as a strong “value” play, which isn’t ideal, but Si Woo has played quite well here in his last 4 starts at Augusta and is in some of his best form prior to the Masters in several years with 10 straight made cuts and gaining strokes T2G and OTT in his last 7 measured events; the putter has been very volatile but similar to how I feel about Niemann (and JT for that matter), I expect his ball-striking to carry him along with good Par 5 scoring to mitigate being a “weakish” putter over his last several events

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Cameron Young ($7,000) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 12^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 39^th // 17^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 4^th  

• SG: Putting (Fast/Bent emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 43^rd // 19^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 33^rd // 16^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th   

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // MC // 13^th // 16^th // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None – Debutant

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course History Rank: N/A

Notes: Always risky to include a debutant as a “core” or “favorite” play and while I’m not sure I see Young contending for a win, I think he is a great course fit as someone who is a huge hitter (7^th in the field in Driving Distance), ranks 9^th in SG: OTT, 14^th BoB, and 11^th in Scrambling; if Young can score on the Par 5s and continue his strong scrambling play I think he has T20 or better upside at what should be some ownership but definitely less popular than Si Woo/Homa/Leishman/Macintyre around him

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Corey Conners → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: Unlike last year where Conners was an absurd mid 6k price tag, I’m not sure I can get to Conners at this pOWN%… elite ball striker of course with success here the last 2 years, finishing T8 and T10, and is most definitely underpriced given his talent; I’ll see where ownership shakes out, but if he’s 22% or more, I may pivot and hope that the putter struggles and he continues to be weak on the Par 5s, which he ranks 57^th in the field

Russell Henley → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: Stat model stud most weeks, but Henely doesn’t warrant this ownership in my opinion… great T2G and on APP, where he ranks 6^th and 8^th, respectively, but he only ranks 73^rd in SG: OTT, 63^rd in Driving Distance, and 76^th in Scrambling; I think Henley can play well, but I don’t think the ownership coincides with his upside and I’d rather have more win equity with guys around him

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: It’s surprising his course history isn’t better because Fitz does fit the bill… 16^th in the field T2G, 1^st in Par 5 Scoring, 3^rd in Scrambling, and 15^th in SG: Putting on Bent/Fast Greens; I don’t want to eat heavy chalk, but he’s definitely mispriced, and I think is a strong cash game play regardless

Max Homa/Marc Leishman → pOWN%: 12%

Play/Fade/Context: I’m already going to play a chalk”ish” Woodland and Si Woo in the lower 7k/high 6k range so I’ll fade Homa as he’s missed the cut in both of his starts at Augusta and while Leish has strong history, his form is lackluster right now as the ball-striking has been subpar and he’s been carried by a hot putter/strong ARG play; Homa has great stats, ranking Top 20 T2G/APP/OTT/Par 5 scoring, but I can’t play all the chalk so I’ll pivot off these 2 cheap 7k players

OTHERS I LIKE: Adam Scott // Tony Finau // Sergio Garcia // Robert Macintyre

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (45 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Gary Woodland ($6,900) → pOWN%: 11%

Quick Hits: In solid form as he’s made 4 of his last 5 cuts that includes a T8/T21/T5/T5… only thing missing here is the course history, which isn’t great, but at only 6900 we can’t expect all the stats/form/history to be perfect; Woodland ranks 9^th in the field in SG: APP, 17^th T2G, 23^rd in Par 5 Scoring, 9^th in Driving Distance, and 9^th in Bogey Avoidance… the short game hasn’t been too bad lately and if he can avoid the 3 putts/big numbers he could give some great value

2) Brian Harman ($6,800) → pOWN%: 8%

Quick Hits: Obviously doesn’t have the driving distance in his favor, but Harman ranks 37^th in the field in SG: T2G, 22^nd SG: OTT, 32^nd BoB, and Top 40 in Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling/SG: P on Bent/Fast greens; finished T12 at Augusta last year and comes in with 3 straight made cuts, 6 made cuts in his last 8 starts, and has a T5/T14/T3 in that span

3) Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Has made 6 of his last 7 cuts with a T13/T4/T12/T20 in that span and although he lacks course history success (WD in his only start), his stats look strong for only a 6700 price tag: 31^st in the field T2G, 6^th in SG: APP, 32^nd in Par 5 scoring, and 33^rd BoB… his short game is not great so obvious risk but rates out well in his price range

4) Sepp Straka ($6,600) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: Been in a run of great form… obviously this is a different animal/tough field/tough course, but Straka ranks 25^th in the field in SG: OTT, 29^th in Driving Distance, 26^th BoB, 15^th in Bogey Avoidance, 10^th in Scrambling, and 4^th in SG: Putting on Bent/Fast Greens; he’s a debutant so could struggle in his first appearance but comes in making 7 of his last 8 cuts with a win/T9/T15/T16 in that span

5) Mackenzie Hughes ($6,300) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Only has 2 starts at Augusta but finished T40 last year in his first start at the event since 2017; his form is iffy and he’s volatile, but at only 6300, we are getting an elite short game as Hughes is 9^th in the field in Scrambling and 6^th in SG: Putting on Bent/Fast greens

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Rory McIlroy

3) Cameron Smith

4) Patrick Cantlay

5) Daniel Berger

6) Tony Finau

7) Tyrrell Hatton

8) Matt Fitzpatrick

9) Corey Conners

10) Paul Casey

11) Si Woo Kim

12) Gary Woodland

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, and 25% Course History

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Cameron Smith
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Justin Thomas
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Jon Rahm
8. Matt Fitzpatrick
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Viktor Hovland
11. Billy Horschel
12. Adam Scott
13. Will Zalatoris
14. Patrick Cantlay
15. Paul Casey
16. Tyrrell Hatton
17. Shane Lowry
18. Brooks Koepka
19. Joaquin Niemann
20. Daniel Berger