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Course: Muirfield Village GC, Dublin, OH

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7500 yards
• Average Cut: +2
• Field: 120 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Augusta National (The Masters)
  • Glen Abbey (Canadian Open)
  • Liberty National (FedEx Cup rotation)
  • The Concession (WGC)
  • The Old White TPC (The Greenbrier)
  • TPC Boston (FedEx Cup rotation)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (125-175 yards emphasis)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling
• BoB Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)
• Sand Saves Gained

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Cameron Smith ($9,900) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 11^th
• SG: Approach → 1^st
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 81^st
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 8^th
• BoB Gained → 1^st
• SG: Par 5s → 4^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 15^th
• Sand Saves Gained → 77^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // 21^st // MC // 3^rd // 1^st    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – MC // 68^th // MC // MC // 65^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 10^th

Notes: Looks like we may get another week where people pivot off of Cam Smith for the likes of Rahm/Rory/Spieth/Lowry; however, Smith looked sharp as could be at the PGA Champ in terms of ball striking, gaining nearly 10 strokes on APP and nearly 3 OTT while making ZERO PUTTS… in 7 starts in 2022 Smith has 2 wins, 2 T5s, and a T13 at the PGA Champ… elite course fit as Muirfield requires precision irons, a strong short game, and limiting mistakes

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 14^th
• SG: Approach → 5^th
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 36^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 43^rd
• BoB Gained → 5^th
• SG: Par 5s → 17^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 118^th
• Sand Saves Gained → 49^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 60^th // 3^rd // 14^th // WD // 20^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 62^nd // MC // 6^th // 13^th // 45^th // MC // 5^th // 1^st

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 7^th

Notes: Couldn’t find the putter at the PGA Champ (what else is new), but has now made 15 straight cuts with a great track record at Muirfield that includes a T6/T5/1^st in 8 starts… Hideki has gained strokes T2G in 10 straight events, gained OTT in 8 straight, and is back on a course where his Par 5 prowess should shine and hopefully mitigate strokes lost with the flat stick

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,100) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 9^th
• SG: Approach → 37^th
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 9^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 2^nd
• BoB Gained → 56^th
• SG: Par 5s → 25^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 35^th
• Sand Saves Gained → 3^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 2^nd // MC // 14^th // 18^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 3^rd // 68^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 22^nd

Notes: Going to be chalky but Fitz really does fit this course to a tee (no pun intended): he excels on long courses, has one of the better short games on TOUR, and ranks 9^th in the field T2G, 9^th OTT, 2^nd in Bogey Avoidance, 15^th on Par 4s 450-500 (7 on the course), 3^rd in Sand Saves, and 1^st in Scrambling; love him for cash/SE and depending on ownership he’s a “safe” option with T10 or so upside in GPPs

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Jordan Spieth → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context:

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context:

Rory McIlroy → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context:

Cameron Young → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context:

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (35 players):

Plays

1) Keegan Bradley ($8,100) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 16^th
• SG: Approach → 27^th
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 15^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 16^th
• BoB Gained → 12^th
• SG: Par 5s → 30^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 40^th
• Sand Saves Gained → 37^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 48^th // 2^nd // 4^th // 8^th // 35^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // 68^th // MC // 23^rd // MC // 8^th // 8^th // 37^th // 50^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 20^th  

Notes: Mixed course history for Keegan but a lot of experience at Muirfield that should suit his strong ball-striking… of note, Bent grass is his “best” (relative) putting surface and similar to guys like Hideki/Woodland, he’s a terrible putter but a great scrambler (top 20 in the field); per his form, Keegan has made every cut but 1 in 2022 with 2 T20s, a T5, a T8, and a T2 in 10 starts… further, he’s gained strokes T2G in 9 of those 10 events, gained on APP in 8 of those 10, and gained OTT in 8 of those 10

2) Joaquin Niemann ($8,300) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• sSG: T2G → 18^th
• SG: Approach → 69^th (nice)
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 8^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 36^th
• BoB Gained → 10^th
• SG: Par 5s → 46^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 90^th
• Sand Saves Gained → 34^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 23^rd // 25^th // WD // 12^th // 35^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // MC // 27^th // 6^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 12^th  

Notes: Niemann has been mighty consistent over his last 5 events despite no T10 or better finishes and the stats look even better than the results as he’s gained T2G/OTT in all 5 (and 8 straight total) and he’s shown a much improved ARG game, gaining strokes in that category in every event since last October; Bent is his best putting surface and while he’ll be popular, he’s too cheap for the win/T5 upside

3) Chris Kirk ($7,700) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 6^th
• SG: Approach → 19^th
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 17^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 35^th
• BoB Gained → 28^th
• SG: Par 5s → 41^st
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 52^nd
• Sand Saves Gained → 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 15^th // 5^th // MC // 21^st // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 26^th // 52^nd // MC // MC // 36^th // 4^th // MC // 25^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 69^th (nice)

Notes: Kirk continues to jump off the page in the stat category as he’s gained strokes T2G and OTT in EVERY SINGLE event since last November, gained on APP in 10 straight and while he has 5 MC since last November, he’s also posted 3 T7s or better and 2 T15s or better… will the putter show up? Probably not, but at only 7700 the only strike against him is the pOWN%

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Anirban Lahiri ($7,200) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 24^th
• SG: Approach → 73^rd
• SG: OTT (Driving Distance emphasis) → 16^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 38^th
• BoB Gained → 78^th
• SG: Par 5s → 67^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 39^th
• Sand Saves Gained → 52^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 6^th // 15^th // 66^th // 13^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 52^nd // 37^th // 2^nd // 61^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 67^th

Notes: Lahiri hasn’t followed up the tremendous success at the PLAYERS but has made 4 of 5 cuts since then with a T13/T15/T6 in 3 of those 5 and has now gained strokes OTT in his last 8 events; the ARG play is above average, he has gained 4+ strokes T2G in 5 of his last 6 starts, and is on his best putting surface; risky for sure, but only 7200 and should be 5% owned or less

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Mito Pereira → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context:

Patrick Reed → pOWN%: 13%

Play/Fade/Context:

Aaron Wise → pOWN%: 12%

Play/Fade/Context:

OTHERS I LIKE: Corey Conners // Matt Kuchar // Gary Woodland

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (67 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Adam Long ($6,700) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Long looked great in the ball striking category last week, gaining 6 strokes on APP (6^th best in the field) while struggling to find the putter; however, at sub 7k, I will continue to play him at low pOWN% as he has shown strong cut making ability so far this season, 8 for 11, and while he can collapse at any point, does have 6 finishes (out of 11) of T35 or better, which is great value at this price

2) Brendan Steele ($6,600) → pOWN%: 9%

Quick Hits: Could be the mega chalk 6k guy which certainly makes him less appealing, but his recent form and stats validates the potential ownership as he’s gained strokes T2G and OTT in his last 6 straight starts, gained on APP in 5 of his last 6… his biggest weakness? As always, it’s the putter but as long as the ownership doesn’t get TOOOOO crazy, I like him for GPPs as he’s made his last 6 cuts at Muirfield, and can rely on elite ball striking at a cheap price

3) Matthew NeSmith ($6,400) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Had a poor weekend at the Colonial but has still made his last 4 cuts in a row, 5 of his last 6 cuts, and the ball-striking has been very above-average at only a 6400 price tag… his short game stinks, but he ranks 10^th in the field on Par 5s, 33^rd SG: OTT, and 34^th in SG: Ball Striking… high risk/reward but near the min price and the form + stats are some of the best in the sub 7k tier

Cash Game Options

1) Rory McIlroy

2) Patrick Cantlay

3) Cameron Smith

4) Matt Fitzpatrick

5) Joaquin Niemann

6) Matt Kuchar

7) Chris Kirk

8) Gary Woodland

9) Kevin Streelman

10) Brendan Steele

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% of my course comp model ranking, and 10% Tournament History

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Shane Lowry
4. Matt Fitzpatrick
5. Cameron Smith
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Keegan Bradley
9. Jon Rahm
10. Max Homa
11. Matt Kuchar
12. Patrick Cantlay
13. Will Zalatoris
14. Mito Pereira
15. Sungjae Im
16. Davis Riley
17. Corey Conners
18. Cameron Young
19. Chris Kirk
20. Joaquin Niemann