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Course: Harbour Town GL, Hilton Head, SC

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7100 yards
• Average Cut: +1/+2
• Field: 132 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)
  • Sea Island (RSM Classic)
  • Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship)
  • TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)
  • TPC Southwind (WGC – FedEx)
  • Waialae CC (Sony Open)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Na, Billy Horschel, Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Kevin Kisner

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (blend of 100-175 yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Putting

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Dustin Johnson ($10,500) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th // 14^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 9^th

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 5^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 5^th

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 11^th // 4^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 12^th // 4^th // 39^th // 9^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 13^th // 17^th // 28^th // 16^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 3

Course History Rank: 2^nd

Notes: Had some hiccups last week but I still think DJ is VERY close to winning and it could easily come this week… this course is known (and correctly so) as more about accuracy over distance but DJ has played well here with 3 T20s in 4 starts; DJ was top 5 in SG: T2G at the Masters with the putter once again letting him down, but he’s now on small/easy greens, he can overpower many holes leaving himself a short wedge, and he ranks 2^nd in my course comp model

2) Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,500) → pOWN%: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 6^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 49^th // 14^th

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 8^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 47^th // 15^th

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 56^th // 13^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 6^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 14^th // 18^th // 5^th // MC // 9^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4^th // 14^th // 39^th // 14^th // MC // MC // 23^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 3

Course History Rank: 19^th

Notes: Most know I rarely like to play Fitz but his ball striking recently has been supreme; finished T14 at Augusta, gaining 1.5 strokes T2G, and has now finished T10 or better in 4 of his last 6 and finished T14 or better in 5 of 6 with his only MC at the PLAYERS; has made 4 straight cuts at Harbour Town with a 4^th and 2 T14s in his last 3 starts

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 10^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 89^th // 16^th

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 7^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th // 14^th

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 87^th // 16^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 39^th // 26^th // MC // 33^rd // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 3^rd // 7^th // 3^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 3

Course History Rank: 7^th

Notes: The stats don’t look incredible but Cantlay is not in as bad a form as his pOWN% and industry sentiment may indicate; his short game is strong, before last year he had finished T3/T7/T3 at Harbour Town, and while his last couple finishes are blah: 39^th/36^th/MC, he’s still only missed 1 cut and rarely will he be low owned in a strong field so I love the leverage off of what should be a very popular JT/Morikawa/Lowry/Conners around him

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Collin Morikawa → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: There is nothing to say “fade” Morikawa except for his pOWN%… elite OTT elite iron play, can rack up birdies, etc etc… his short game is always suspect and if I fade it’s purely to fade the chalk

Russell Henley → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: Henley seems like a perfect fit here, but unfortunately everyone realizes the same thing… biggest knock on Henley is he doesn’t have the distance, which is fine here, but his accuracy is very poor as well as he ranks 101^st in the field in SG: OTT and 33^rd Fairways Gained; I like him but do I prefer him/upside/win equity to guys around him like Niemann/Webb/Sungjae/Fitz… not so sure

Corey Conners → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: Corey Conners has got to be exhausted… played several matches at the match play, then Valero, then 4 rounds at Augusta… can’t quantify that whatsoever and he’s a great fit for the course with very few weaknesses in his game… but I can’t play ALL the chalk

Webb Simpson → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: Form vs. History… Webb is first in the field in my course history model, but his current form and stats leave a lot to be desired… he could be a better bet than a DFS play but if I see the pOWN% isn’t insane I’ll have some interest in 3 max/large field GPPs

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (37 players):

Plays

1) Alex Noren ($8,400) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 17^th // 9^th          

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 35^th // 14^th

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 48^th // 22^nd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 45^th // 20^th

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 101^st // 33^rd

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th    

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 18^th // 12^th // 26^th // 5^th // 48^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 25^th // 21^st // 28^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course History Rank: 29^th

Notes: Great short game, good form, and should fit this course well; Noren has gained T2G in 6 straight events and has made 6 straight cuts with a T6/T5/T26/T12 in that span… he can be a little bit wonky off the tee but the rough here/missing the fairway isn’t very penal… will he make enough putts?

2) Maverick McNealy ($7,900) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 40^th // 21^st

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 43^rd // 17^th

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 9^th   

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 1^st   

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 6^th        

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 52^nd // 15^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 17^th // 46^th // 73^rd // 7^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 4^th // 58^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course History Rank: 48^th

Notes: Always target Mav on courses with small greens as he’s 6^th in the field BoB, 12^th in the field in Opps. Gained (approaches to 15 feet or less), and 15^th in SG: OTT/Fairways Gained; has played Harbour Town twice, finishing T4 last year, and recently has made eleven (11!) straight cuts that includes 4 finishes of T25 or better… the weakest part of his game by far is ARG which is mitigated here as the greens are small but getting up and down/saving par is considerably easier compared to other courses

3) Sepp Straka ($7,200) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 46^th // 26^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 66^th // 26^th

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 26^th // 16^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 26^th // 11^th

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 49^th // 21^st

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 2^nd     

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 30^th // 35^th // 9^th // MC // 1^st  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 59^th // 33^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course History Rank: 63^rd

Notes: Why not just keep riding Sepp? Made his cut in his first start at Augusta and battled back to T30; form is strong with a win and 4 of 5 made cuts in his last several starts; his short game continues to look great and while he can be very streaky and/or volatile, he has the upside I want to target in the low 7k range as he could MC, sure, but he has T20 or better equity and should be 6-8% or less owned again

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Kevin Streelman ($7,500) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 6^th          

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 59^th // 23^rd

• SG: OTT (Fways emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 17^th // 11^th   

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 66^th // 28^th

• Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 108^th // 35^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 13^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 18^th // 7^th // 22^nd // MC // 16^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 33^rd // MC // 6^th // 7^th // 55^th // 53^rd // 3^rd // 17^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 4

Course History Rank: 20^th

Notes: Been playing some solid golf with finishes of T22/T7/T18 over his last 3, has gained strokes OTT in all 10 events he’s played since the Fall swing started, and ranks 13^th in the field T2G, 4^th Fairways Gained, 5^th Bogey Avoidance, and 1^st in Scrambling… if he can putt average, he has the perfect game for Harbour Town where he’s had some decent success; a T25 or better more than gives us great value

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Adam Hadwin → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: Going to be VERY chalky because his price is stupid… ranks 5^th in the field T2G, 8^th SG: APP, 8^th Fairways Gained, 9^th BoB, 5^th Opps Gained… course history “should” be better given his playing style but his best finish is T22 (2017) with 2 MCs and T30/T41/T48 around that…

Matt Kuchar → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: Elite course history like Webb… has made 10 straight cuts here with a win, 3 T10s, 3 other finishes of T23/T18/T11… recently, he’s finished T2/T16 after several MCs/bad finishes so his pOWN% may be unwarranted… cheap and fine for cash games but could be too chalky for GPPs

OTHERS I LIKE: Brian Harman // Russell Knox // Charles Howell III

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (78 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brian Stuard ($6,700) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: In decent form for only 6700; MC at the Valero but before that had a T7/T16/T22/T9 in 4 of his previous 5 starts and has made the cut at the RBC 7 years in a row; ranks 1^st in the field in Fairways Gained, 34^th in Bogey Avoidance, & just needs to avoid the big numbers here

2) Nate Lashley ($6,700) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Quietly been in some decent form; ranks 36^th in the field T2G, 29^th SG: APP, 38^th Fairways Gained, 25^th BoB, 7^th Opps. Gained, & 18^th in Bogey Avoidance; MC in his only start here but recently has finished T18/T15/T27/T7 over his last 4

3) Matthew NeSmith ($6,600) → pOWN%: 8%

Quick Hits: Volatile player but at only 6600 we should embrace that… has a T3 and T25 along with 2 MCs and a T55 over his last 5 starts; per his stats, he ranks 31^st SG: T2G, 22^nd in SG: APP and SG: OTT, 12^th in Fairways Gained, & 5^th in Opps. Gained… strong punt similar to Lashley

4) Adam Svensson ($6,400) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Was popular for a few weeks but then tailed off and now only 6400; per his stats, he’s 33^rd in the field T2G, 20^th SG: APP, and although the form isn’t great with 2 straight MC and 3 MC in his last 5, he’s only 6400 so just a made cut offers massive upside

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Dustin Johnson

3) Patrick Cantlay

4) Shane Lowry

5) Matt Fitzpatrick

6) Russell Henley

7) Chris Kirk

8) Adam Hadwin

9) Kevin Streelman

10) Charles Howell III

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 15% of my course comp model ranking, and 10% Course History

1. Justin Thomas
2. Shane Lowry
3. Billy Horschel
4. Matt Fitzpatrick
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Corey Conners
7. Cameron Smith
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Daniel Berger
10. Joaquin Niemann
11. Chris Kirk
12. Kevin Streelman
13. Russell Henley
14. Tyrrell Hatton
15. Alex Noren
16. Matt Kuchar
17. Patrick Cantlay
18. Adam Hadwin
19. Harold Varner III
20. Brian Harman