Caleb's StableDuel Strategy - 3/5 Gulfstream Park » DFS Karma
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Gulfstream Park has a ridiculously loaded card on tap today, featuring eight graded stakes races headlined by the Kentucky Derby prep race, the Fountain of Youth Stakes. That race itself has turned up incredibly salty, with over half of the field looking like legitimate contenders. The undercard is also fantastic, with big fields and lots of turf racing to be found. As always, StableDuel is offering a huge contest for this big day, with $25,000 guaranteed for only a $50 entry. Let’s take a look at a few of today’s runners.

If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing at Gulfstream this Saturday. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!

Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some Stableduel stables.

If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.

Looking for other ideas to fill out your stable? Be sure to check out the discord, where we provide core plays and cheat sheets to help you win!

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High Price Favorites

Speaker’s Corner $8,500 – Race 10

I’ve highlighted Speaker’s Corner in a previous article, and he did not disappoint that day when cruising to an easy victory in the Fred Hooper on Pegasus Day. Despite setting blistering fractions and comfortably winning that day, he is still somehow listed as a generous price of 5/2 on the morning line. Don’t expect to see that price come post time, as he should be and will be quite a bit shorter. He soundly trounced Fearless last out, and that horse appears to be his biggest competition today. There is other pace signed on today, so Alvarado may need to take care not to go too crazy up front, but Speaker’s Corner does have the ability to rate if needed.

 

Mid Price Plays

Gift List $7,000 – Race 9

Another horse who I highlighted previously, Gift List ran respectably that day checking in for fourth while making her first start off of a long layoff. That race really held together on the front end, as the two pacesetters still finished second and third to the heavy Chad Brown favorite Regal Glory. Gift List looked like a horse who probably just needed that start off of the long layoff, but it was encouraging to see she hasn’t lost anything since last summer and even displayed some good tactical speed. Bryan Lynch is 22% with a +0.31 ROI with horses making their second start off of the layoff, so expect a forward move here. What further helps her chances in this event is the abundance of early speed signed on. With the likes of Jouster, Sugar Fix, Quinoa Tifah, Alms, Katama Moonlight, In Italian, and Navratilova all doing their best running on or near the lead, this race is ripe for an off the pace runner to pick up the pieces late.

 

Value Plays

Creative Minister $500 – Race 4

I would normally never include a first time starter as a core horse due to the volatility that such races normally involve, but this is one time where I’ll make an exception. Creative Minister has been working with Fountain of Youth contender and Grade 1 winner Rattle N Roll, and I would urge anyone interested to watch the morning workouts. Rattle N Roll is an extremely talented horse, but by all indications Creative Minister has been getting the better of him in the mornings. He’s coming into this race off of a blistering 58.3 workout last week, so expect him to show speed and perhaps take this field the distance.

 

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