We are back this week looking to build on the momentum generated during the Tampa Bay Downs contest last weekend. Both core lineups ended up cashing, and the three horses highlighted in the article produced two winners and one second place finish. If you played along last week you made some money, so we aim to keep the ball rolling this week as we head to Gulfstream Park. StableDuel is hosting a $10k guaranteed contest with a $50 buy-in, so let’s take a look at a few races below.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Credibility $8,500 – Race 7
Credibility enters this race with by far the most credibility of any horse in the field. He is graded stakes placed when running third in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. The form of that race was flattered when the winner, Tiz The Bomb, returned to run second in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. Ignore the last out running line for Credibility, as he was marooned impossibly wide that day at Del Mar when it was extremely important to save ground. He now adds Lasix for the first time, and he is squarely the one to beat compared to this field full of mostly allowance horses.
Mid Price Plays
Rita Marga $6,000 – Race 8
One thing immediately jumps out at me when handicapping this race, and that is the absolute lack of any early speed. Early speed is often dominant at Gulfstream on the dirt, especially at the 8.5 furlong configuration where they have a short stretch run to the first finish line. Rita Marga ran a good race in her debut, and she projects to be the controlling speed while stretching out to a new distance. Maiden races can often be tricky, but I don’t think there are any monsters in this event so I’ll take my chances with a horse on the lead at a generous price.
Sigiloso $3,000 – Race 4
I debated whether or not $3,000 was considered a value play, but ultimately decided to go ahead with it. Sigiloso is getting significant class relief in this event despite the fact it is listed as a stakes race. The horses likely to get bet in this race, Shamrocket and Lure Him In, both do their best work at distances longer than today’s nine furlongs. I think they are both vulnerable, and Sogilolo is prime to take advantage. He should be able to sit just off of the likely pacesetter Max K.O., and I expect him to make a middle move to overtake that one at the top of the stretch. He has a strong chance to hold off the late charging closers, and he will almost certainly be shorter than 8/1 come post time.
Classy Woman $250 – Race 9
Since $3,000 was a touch steep for a value play, I included one other cheap dart throw who I find interesting. Classy Woman projects to be the speed in this event, although she would benefit immensely if Quinoa Tifah, who appears hopelessly overmatched, would scratch. Regardless, Classy Woman has been doing all of the dirty work setting fast fractions at Tampa Bay Downs lately. The Tampa Bay Downs turf course is much more difficult to win on the lead compared to Gulfstream, so I think this mare’s speed will carry much better here at Hallandale Beach. She actually beat the morning line favorite Sugar Fix the last time they faced each other on March 21. She is certainly a risky pick if she becomes enveloped in a pace duel, but she has a chance to outrun her price.