UFC on ESPN+ 2: What Do The Weigh-In Results Tell Us?
Hi, DFS Karma MMA community. Justin and I posted our “3 Best Bets for UFC on ESPN+ 2” and “Top DFS UFC on ESPN+ 2 Picks in Each Price Range” articles, as well as our “Super Bales Bros – UFC on ESPN+ 2 – MMA DFS” podcast, on Thursday. Since then, the weigh-in happened, and that turned out to be an impactful event for this upcoming card. More specifically, Sarah Frota missed by seven pounds, and Magomed Bibulatov missed by three pounds. Bibulatov is a massive favorite, while Frota is sizeable underdog, and Livinha Souza was (is?) our favorite expensive options on DraftKings this weekend. Both fights are still happening as of right now, so this article is an attempt to sort through this new information.
Magomed Bibulatov (-360, $9,400)
First, Bibulatov is the most expensive DraftKings option on this upcoming card, so a terrible weight cut obviously impacts lineup construction. Luckily, Justin and I sort of avoided this fight even before the bad news broke. The 30-year-old Russian is a rising prospect entering his third UFC fight, which led to an opening Vegas line of -405 in his favor. That reached -462 at its peak, but rapidly dropped to as low as -325 on some betting sites! That action started prior to Bibulatov’s missed weigh-in, which has both Justin and I skeptical about his upcoming performance. To Bibulatov’s credit, since the UFC introduced its early weigh-in procedures, betting favorites that miss weight are a combined 16-5, or 76.2%. Even so, we are going to completely avoid this fight. Rogerio Bontorin is not a good enough fighter to warrant consideration on DraftKings, but a low half unit bet on MyBookie might be worth the risk, considering the massive line movement and obvious weigh issues here.
Quick Summary: Avoid Magomed Bibulatov entirely on DraftKings, but a small wager on Rogerio Bontorin on MyBookie is worth consideration based on strange line movement, as well as a bad weight cut.
Livinha Souza (-220, $9,100)
Souza is currently a huge question mark, and anyone that reads our articles and watches our podcast is probably wondering what we think about the recent Frota weigh-in result. Well, generally speaking, missing weight is assumed to benefit fighters. If a fighter misses weight, they didn’t have to struggle nearly as much during the cutting process, and they weigh more at the time of the fight. However, that is actually not always the case. Again, since the UFC introduced its early weigh-in procedure, underdogs that miss weight are only a combined 7-14, or 33.3%. Now, that number is obviously low because underdogs are still underdogs, but it also does not suggest much benefit from a missed weight cut. If we dive a little bit deeper, fighters that missed weight by six pounds or more are a combined 0-4, and in the entire history of the UFC, no one has ever won a fight after missing weight by seven or more pounds. This bodes well for Souza, but she will still have to take Frota to the ground and find a submission. That style of fighting might be a bit more difficult with an added seven pounds for Frota. Even so, Souza is still the best expensive option on the slate this weekend.
Quick Summary: Do not avoid Livinha Souza this weekend. She is still an elite option on DraftKings with first-round submission potential. As far as MyBookie is concerned, -220 is perhaps a little too wide right now. If Frota starts to close based on her weigh-in result, bet Souza for odds value, as the seven pounds is not going to stop Souza from breaking Frota’s arm.
By Jason Bales