Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite drivers to target for Sunday’s race! You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord! By signing up, you’ll get access to our Final Thoughts, all our Core Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as well as our Prop Plays for MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Remember, our NASCAR Premium content extends to ALL series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup).
Race Preview/Lineup Construction
The Cup Series will be heading to Atlanta this weekend, but don’t expect this to play out like a typical Atlanta race would. With the newly configured track and pack racing we saw in practice, I think this will play out like a superspeedway race which means track history here means nothing. The things that I’ll be looking at are superspeedway data, recent form, and large intermediate track data. This race is 334 laps, so there are 233.8 dominator points available on DraftKings and 33.4 on FanDuel. Stacking the back looks like a good approach on Sunday as there’s a lot of drivers starting deep with top 5 upside. However, we do have to consider that the dominator points will play a more significant role than at Daytona and Talladega. In cash games, we don’t have to worry about lap leaders with the unpredictability but in GPPs, we need to take some chances on guys starting close to the front. Also, don’t be afraid to leave salary on the table! It’s very easy to make some good lineups without using the max salary. Hopefully this gave you guys a good start on how I’ll be attacking today’s race at Atlanta. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some of the drivers that I’ll be targeting on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kyle Larson (DK $10,500 FD $14,000)
I know you guys are probably sick of me mentioning Larson in these articles, but he projects out as one of the top plays on the slate. Starting in 21st, he offers a lot of place differential and dominator potential as well. His recent form is solid as well with a win at Auto Club a few weeks back and a 2nd place finish at Las Vegas. He has plenty of teammates to work with which should help him get out front at some point in this race. Larson will probably be one of the highest owned drivers today, so he looks like a solid option for cash games. In GPPs, I don’t mind being underweight because he’s not the greatest driver at the superspeedways and with the unpredictability of this race, fading the chalk could be a smart move.
Denny Hamlin (DK $10,100 FD $12,000)
Hamlin has been awful this season but if there’s any race for him to turn it around, this is it. He’s great at the superspeedways with two wins, six top 5’s, and seven top 10’s over his last ten races on those tracks. He also offers place differential starting 15th which gives him more upside than some of the drivers starting inside the top 10. I wouldn’t play him in cash games as he’s been very inconsistent, and there are drivers starting further back that are probably safer. In GPPs, I will have a decent amount of exposure to Denny hoping he can have a strong run here. I know he’ll have decent ownership, but it might not be as much as we think because people have been getting burned by him a lot.
Brad Keselowski (DK $8,600 FD $7,500)
Keselowski brought a fast car to the track this weekend, so look for him to take out some of your drivers in the race. He has been one of the best drivers in NASCAR when it comes to superspeedway racing, so I expect him run up front and be a contender for the win. He’s another driver that offers a lot of place differential starting 24th. Keselowski is underpriced on both sites and will be a very popular play in this price range. Brad should work with Buescher and the other Penske drivers in the race assuming they even trust him at this point.
Bubba Wallace (DK $7,300 FD $8,500)
Wallace failed as chalk last week at Phoenix, so I’m hoping people jump off of him here and lower his ownership. If you’ve read my articles before, you know I love targeting Bubba at the superspeedways, especially when he’s going overlooked. If this is a superspeedway race, we should consider that he won at Talladega last fall. With some of the drivers in his price range starting further back, I expect him to be lower owned which is great for GPPs. He still offers plenty of place differential starting 19th and should be a threat for the win.
Chris Buescher (DK $6,700 FD $6,000)
I didn’t mention this in the preview, but a very interesting strategy we can use in GPPs is to stack teammates. In the Xfinity Series race yesterday, we saw Kaulig, JRM, and JGR team cars all working together throughout to try and control the race. Buescher has a very aggressive teammate in Keselowski which should help him here. They both looked solid at Daytona earlier this season, so I think they’ll run well. I’m hoping his 14th place starting spot scares people away because he’s a driver I love targeting for GPPs and will probably be overweight on.
Corey LaJoie (DK $5,300 FD $3,000)
LaJoie is a driver that has always been great at the superspeedway in the Cup Series with three top 10’s and an AvFn of 16.3 over the last ten superspeedway races. Starting in 33rd, he offers a lot of place differential and can’t really hurt your lineup. I expect him and Gragson to be the two popular value plays which leaves Todd Gilliland and Ragan as the pivots. Look for Corey and this #7 team to bounce back and have a strong run here.
NASCAR Atlanta Quick Picks:
Winner: Denny Hamlin
Favorite Play: Brad Keselowski
Favorite Low Owned Play: Bubba Wallace
Fade: Christopher Bell (I will be underweight)
Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: Austin Cindric
I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for Atlanta and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! I’ll be live streaming on the DFS Karma YouTube channel, so make sure to come in there and ask your questions as well! If you want access to our final thoughts, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! You can click here to join our free Discord! Good luck