NASCAR Luke’s List – NASCAR DFS – Ruoff Mortgage 500k Phoenix - DFS Karma
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NASCAR Luke’s List – NASCAR DFS – Ruoff Mortgage 500k Phoenix

Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown for the Pennzoil 400 at Phoenix! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite drivers to target for Sunday’s race! You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord! By signing up, you’ll get access to our Final Thoughts, all our Core Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as well as our Prop Plays for MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Remember, our NASCAR Premium content extends to ALL series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup).


Race Preview/Lineup Construction

The Cup Series will be heading to Phoenix this weekend for the final race of the west coast swing. This is a one mile, short track which means cars will get lapped quickly assuming there’s some long green flag runs. Looking at previous Phoenix races, we usually see 2-3 lap leaders, so targeting the right dominators will be crucial. This race is 312 laps which means there are 218.4 dominator points available on DraftKings and 31.2 on FanDuel. Practice and qualifying should help us figure out which drivers to target, but that’s not the only thing we should be looking at when making our DFS lineups. Some other data I’m looking is track history, flat track data, and recent form. There’s plenty of place differential plays, so this is a good week for GPPs as we’ll have to get the right dominators with the right place differential drivers. There’s also plenty of value options to choose from as well so expect ownership to be spread out among those guys. With all of that out of the way, here are some of the drivers I’ll be targeting for today’s race at Phoenix.

Kyle Larson (DK $11,800 FD $14,500)

Larson is the defending winner at Phoenix and was fast in practice putting down the 5th fastest lap overall and 3rd in the 10-lap averages. He will have to start from the rear on Sunday because his team made an unapproved adjustment, but I’m not worried at all. I expect him to work his way up through the field pretty quickly and be a threat to dominate by the start of stage two. He had the fastest car here last spring but didn’t lead any laps because of multiple pit road penalties. I probably wouldn’t play him in cash games with some of the place differential plays, but I think he makes for a great tournament play that will probably be underowned because he’s starting in the back.

Ryan Blaney (DK $9,800 FD $11,000)

Blaney was 4th in practice, 2nd in 5-lap, 2nd in 10-lap, and is starting on the pole for today’s race. He started 1st here back in 2019 and led 94 laps, so I’d expect something similar to that considering the speed he’s shown this weekend. His track history is decent with multiple top 5 finishes over the last few races here. He’s underpriced on both sites but more for DraftKings because of how valuable dominator points are for their scoring. He’s a great cash play and makes for a strong tournament option as well. In GPPs, I expect Blaney to be one of the highest owned drivers so if making multiple lineups, we’ll have to decide if we want to be overweight, equal, or underweight on him for Sunday.

Tyler Reddick (DK $8,500 FD $9,500)

Reddick will be low owned on Sunday because people will pull up his track history at Phoenix and see he has zero top 10’s in four Cup starts here. However, in his first race at Phoenix, he was running inside the top 5 scoring fast laps and outrunning guys like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. He did wreck later on, but that’s definitely something to note considering the speed this #8 car has shown this season. Reddick has been fast in practice as well seeing that he was 4th in the 5-lap and 6th in 10-lap averages. Who’s going to be that random driver to show up and start leading? Don’t be surprised if that guy is Tyler Reddick. I’ll definitely be overweight on him for tournaments.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr (DK $7,000 FD $7,300)

Stenhouse had good speed in practice but had an engine failure which is why he’s starting from the back. JTG has an alliance with Hendrick, so I think his backup car will be just fine in the race. While Ricky doesn’t have the greatest track history at Phoenix, he does have multiple top 20 finishes here and doesn’t have to do much with all the place differential he has. He’s a very safe play, but I’ll probably be underweight on him in tournaments because he finds his way into trouble a lot and will be one of the highest owned drivers in GPPs.

Daniel Suarez (DK $6,600 FD $6,000)

These Trackhouse Racing cars have been fast this season, and Suarez was 13th in the 10-lap averages. His track history at Phoenix isn’t great, but he did have a couple top 10 finishes back when he was in the #19 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. He offers place differential starting 23rd and should be able to contend for a top 15 and maybe a top 10 finish depending on how fast he is in the race. Getting this range of the $6,000 drivers correct will be the key to taking down GPPs today.

Cole Custer (DK $6,200 FD $5,000)

Custer has four Cup starts at Phoenix and has finishes of 9th, 28th, 31st, and 13th. His Xfinity Series data here was solid as well as he had finishes of 4th and 2nd in 2019. I know he hasn’t shown much speed in practice, but I like the speed this #41 car has had this season. He offers place differential starting 25th and should be able to compete for a top 15 finish. Custer is underpriced on both sites and looks like a great value option to target here.

NASCAR Phoenix Quick Picks:

Winner: Joey Logano

Favorite Play: Kyle Larson

Favorite Low Owned Play: Tyler Reddick

Fade: Kyle Busch

Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: Austin Cindric

I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for Phoenix, and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! I’ll be live streaming on the DFS Karma YouTube channel, so make sure to come in there and ask your questions as well! If you want access to our final thoughts, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! You can click here to join our free Discord! Good luck!


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