NASCAR Luke’s List – NASCAR DFS – Pennzoil 400 » DFS Karma
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Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite drivers to target for Sunday’s race! You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord! By signing up, you’ll get access to our Final Thoughts, all our Core Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as well as our Prop Plays for MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Remember, our NASCAR Premium content extends to ALL series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup).

 

Race Preview/Lineup Construction

The Cup Series will be heading to Las Vegas speedway this weekend which is your typical 1.5 mile track. The new cars worked very well last week as we saw constant passing throughout the race. There were battles everywhere on the track, and the drivers actually had to use their talent to run well. I wouldn’t look at the data here from the last few seasons because it’s irrelevant in my opinion. Multiple drivers were able to lead laps at Auto Club, so I’d expect something similar here assuming there’s a decent amount of cautions. This race is 267 laps which means we’ll probably want to target 2-3 dominators in our lineups. Practice and qualifying should help us figure out what drivers will have the speed in the race and the guys we’ll need to target for place differential. I think this makes for a very interesting week for GPPs because this feels like a race that’ll be very to predict what’s going to happen. Try to make multiple lineups if you can because NASCAR DFS is one of those sports with very high variance which will give you an edge over some of the casuals. With all of that out of the way, here are some of the drivers that I’ll be targeting for Sunday’s race at Vegas.

 

Kyle Larson (DK $11,300 FD $14,000)

What did Larson do last week at Auto Club? He won, scored 71.2 DraftKings points, and made the optimal lineup. His #5 car has a lot of speed this weekend considering he put down the fastest lap in practice and was 1st in 10-lap averages as well. Larson will be starting on the front row, so he has a great chance of getting the lead early and scoring lots of dominator points. Even if he doesn’t, Cliff Daniels knows how to adjust the car as the race progresses to get him out front. I would 100% lock him in cash games, and he makes for a tough fade in tournaments with the upside he has. I’ll be overweight on him in GPPs, but he could be an interesting fade in single entry because so many people will start their lineups with Larson in those contests.

 

William Byron (DK $9,800 FD $11,000)

Byron’s track history might scare people off of him considering he only has two top 10’s here in eight Cup starts. I think most of it is just bad luck, so I’m hoping he comes in lower owned because of his data which doesn’t matter. Last week, he started from the back and had a rocket ship until he got involved in the Tyler Reddick incident. Byron was 4th in single lap speed and 2nd in the 10-lap only behind his Hendrick teammate Kyle Larson. Hendrick brought some fast cars to the track, so I’d expect these guys to run well in the race as well. He offers plenty of place differential as well starting 14th and is underpriced on both sites.

 

Kurt Busch (DK $8,900 FD $9,200)

Busch screwed up his lap in qualifying which is why he’s starting 31st on Sunday. He offers plenty of place differential and showed good speed in practice as well. Kurt is from Vegas, so he has the home track narrative going for him like Custer did last week. I know I said in the preview to ignore the last few seasons of data, but Busch did win the 2020 playoff race here which ended his 0-21 stat at Vegas. I expect him to be one of the most popular plays on Sunday for DraftKings and FanDuel. In cash games, it’s tough to get away from a driver like this because he offers a safe floor but in GPPs, there are plenty of pivots around him we can target like Reddick and Bowman. I love Reddick again this weekend.

 

Christopher Bell (DK $8,000 FD $8,700)

Bell put down a great lap in qualifying to win the pole and showed great speed in practice as he was 2nd in single lap and 4th in the 10-lap average. The question is can he score enough dominator points to make the optimal lineup? I think at his price, he’s definitely worth having some exposure to because of the speed and upside he has. This is not a driver I would play in cash games as he has a very low floor, but I’ll probably be overweight on Bell in tournaments for sure. He’s a great driver to play in lineups without Larson assuming he can hold him off. Pairing them together could be an interesting approach as well because I doubt many lineups will have both drivers.

 

Chris Buescher (DK $6,500 FD $6,500)

Buescher will more than likely be the highest owned driver below $7,000 because of the place differential he offers starting 27th. The Roush cars haven’t looked great this weekend, but I still think he can get this car inside the top 20 by the end of the race. In cash games, it’ll be hard to get away from him but in GPPs, Custer and Haley look like strong pivots that’ll have lower ownership. I think the most popular way people will start their lineups on Sunday will be Larson, Kyle Busch, and Buescher, so I’d try avoiding that combo in the same lineup for tournaments.

 

Daniel Hemric (DK $5,800 FD $4,500)

Hemric showed great speed in practice as he was 9th in single lap and top 10 in both the 5-lap and 10-lap averages. Last week, he somehow came back from being 6 laps down and got a top 10 finish! This #16 Kaulig car has speed, and I’m hoping people don’t realize it at this point in the season. His starting spot of 16th might scare people off which makes him a great tournament play on Sunday. Ty Dillon will probably be higher owned because he’s starting 32nd and is the “safer play.” He also ran the Xfinity Series race on Saturday, so he has some extra laps under his belt as well.

 

NASCAR Las Vegas Picks:

Winner: Kyle Larson

Favorite Play: William Byron

Favorite Low Owned Play: Alex Bowman

Fade: Kyle Busch

Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: Aric Almirola

 

I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for Las Vegas, and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! I’ll be live streaming on the DFS Karma YouTube channel, so make sure to come in there and ask your questions as well! If you want access to our final thoughts, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! You can click here to join our free Discord! Good luck!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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