English Premier League 10/17/20
The International break is over and league play resumes! And even more exciting is that Champions League returns Tuesday/Wednesday this coming week!! But before we get to that, let’s discuss Saturday’s 3 game slate that has staggered starts at 10 AM, 12:30pm and 3pm EST. As always I’ll break down both sites. Remember I am more Fanduel oriented, while Frosty and Luke crush the Draftkings side of things for us here at Karma. Be sure to check out their breakdowns in discord and follow their core plays.
Chelsea (-200) vs. Southampton
Manchester City (-200) vs. Arsenal
Newcastle United vs. Manchester United (-150)
-Four big clubs on the slate, two of them are home favorites, while United are a road favorite at Newcastle. Home pitch advantage remains to be not much of a factor in the crowd-less world EPL and Vegas has not fully embraced that fact. I could go on more but let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Chelsea vs. Southampton-
My favorite team seems to have found a little something before the short break but now they are getting a little healthier, as Christian Pulisic ($16/$8300) should be back in the starting lineup and Hakim Ziyech ($14/$8700) will be on the bench as he continues to work back from his knee ailment. Unfortunately Edouard Mendy ($14/$5700) will miss out on the weekend which means either Kepa or Caballero will start… I didn’t put prices because I wouldn’t pay even $1 for either of them… they are complete garbage in net or this news alone knocks Chelsea’s defensive upside a ton. This offense has yet to be unlocked and maybe Pulisic can help do so… Timo Werner ($20/$8100) and Kai Havertz ($18/$7700) are the two other big pieces I would want, both had great times away from the club with Team Germany and hopefully they can keep that momentum going vs. the Saints. Defensively, Thiago Silva is ruled out, but Ben Chilwell ($13/$6700) should feature and has looked worth the huge money they shelled out for him from Leicester City in the off-season. I don’t mind Reece James ($14/$5700) but prefer Chilwell if you can fit on DK.
The Saints are hard to figure out… they look dead to the world, and then they post back to back shutouts vs. Burnley and West Bromwich Albion. Sure those teams are not exceptional clubs but clean sheets are hard to come by in the EPL. Stuart Armstrong is out with Covid-19, which will hurt their midfield depth but that could mean an immediate debut for Theo Walcott ($9/$4900) who they got in a transfer day deal from Everton. Danny Ings ($17/$7000) is always their best bet to score and Chelsea is not defensively sound. James Ward-Prowse ($14/$6400) is their main set piece taker and has a very solid open field game as well to have a decent floor. Jan Bednarek ($11 FD) is a good value for the action he should see in the middle, and Kyle Walker-Peters ($12/$4000) is a good price for both sites with his offensive upside and he has shown the ability to back track really well too now (6 tackles vs. Crystal Palace). Alex McCarthy ($7/$3900) should be a busy man back there and the defense in front of him is pretty darn solid… I think he’s a really solid GPP play.
Prediction: Chelsea 2 – Southampton 2
Manchester City vs. Arsenal-
I won’t bury the lead… Kevin De Bruyne is OUT, and will be sidelined at least 2 weeks for the Citizens. A huge blow for them not only in this matchup, and but also for their upcoming Champions League showdown. Raheem Sterling ($19/$9300) is questionable as well, and Aguero and Jesus both remain out. This could be a lack luster City attack. Riyad Mahrez ($21/$9000) is the top guy for me here as he should take over some set piece duties and has looked really good so far this season. Not sure who we see on the right wing, whether it’s Ferran Torres ($14/$6600) or Bernardo Silva ($13/$7500) is intriguing. Torres looked pretty decent last time out but Bernardo would be a really good play on FD especially if he starts. I never target City defenders as they just don’t do enough offensively or defensively for DFS purposes and similar point for Ederson ($12/$5800), who seems to be overpriced for the game that I think will actually unfold… I could see Arsenal putting a few past him.
Man City got thrashed by Leicester, then they drew to newcomers (but exciting) Leeds… now they are without KDB, Aguero, Jesus and possibly Sterling?! How can I sign up for that matchup? Arsenal is in the best spot they could imagine but they do have a few key fitness concerns themselves. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyeng ($19/$7900) did not go out on international duty due to a small ankle issue but all signs point to him able to go this weekend. A bigger concern is Kieran Tierney ($12/$3900) who has been quarantining after being on international duty with Stuart Armstrong who as I stated earlier, is Covid-19 positive. Alexander Lacazette ($17/$7700) has been in good form and I like his chances to score Saturday afternoon. Thomas Partey ($13/$3400) is in line to start after his deadline deal from Atletico Madrid and could be the cheap piece you need for a good stack. Willian ($16/$6900) started out hot but since then has been a huge disappointment DFS wise, and he is a GPP only kind of play. Hector Bellerin ($8/$3700) is a good cheap play on both sites and he should be involved in the attack and have to track back a lot to rack up some defensive stats. Bernd Leno ($8/$3800) should see 4-5 shots and they should be a little less worrisome without all those weapons from City. GPP kind of play for me.
-Prediction: Manchester City 1 – Arsenal 3
Newcastle United vs. Manchester United –
Another tough test for Newcastle, they stood up to the challenge from Spurs earlier in the season and are fresh off a 3-1 victory over Burnley. I see them giving United some trouble in the first half before being opened up a bit. I don’t love their attacking pieces, yet if you are inclined to play them, Callum Wilson ($15/$6000) is the man up top and is coming of a 2 goal/1 assist game. Allan Saint-Maximin ($13/$5400) has recovered from his most recent injury and is always dangerous down the flanks. Matt Ritchie remains out so Jonjo Shelvey ($8/$4900) is pretty cheap for a guy who should have most, if not all set piece opportunities unless we finally see Ryan Fraser ($9/$6100). For defenders FanDuel has three super cheap options for you in Jamal Lewis ($8), Javier Manquillo ($7) and Jamaal Lascelles ($7) and United will allow plenty of opportunities for each of them to get defensive stats. I think Lascelles would be my top of those three. Karl Darlow ($7/$4100) was solid again last time out and while Newcastle’s defense is a work in progress, I think they have a good chance to stall out United a bit.
United will return to the UCL this week and I could EASILY see them overlook this match. Anthony Martial is out, but Mason Greenwood ($17/$7100) should be the benefactor and could be dangerous. Bruno Fernandes ($19/$10000) is starting to find a little of his last season form and could be a tough fade on this slate. Eric Baily ($8) is a good value spot on FanDuel, while Luke Shaw ($4100) is pretty cheap on DK. David De Gea ($13/$5500) probably has the best chance for a clean sheet but that defense is really shaky in front of him.
-Prediction: Newcastle 2 – Manchester United 2
This is a GREAT GPP SLATE!! A great time to play those 3-max kind of tournaments!
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel as well as checking out Luke’s Projection Portal (FREE!) https://www.dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2/