Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Junior Guerra (-130)
The Milwaukee Brewers have been a dominant team at home this season, where they own a 61.1% win rate. Junior Guerra has also been a much better pitcher at home this season, where he owns a 3-3 record with a 2.46 ERA. Guerra has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six home starts. Milwaukee also added a few pieces at the trade deadline to bolster their offense. Tonight, they get a matchup against German Marquez, who has thrown well on the road this season. Through 10 road starts, Marquez owns a 5-3 record with a 3.15 ERA. He has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his last three road starts, though, and it seems as if Marquez’s road numbers are beginning to normalize. Colorado has struggled offensively on the road this season, and Milwaukee simply has the more consistent pitching staff in this game. The runline simply adds more value for a team that comes with tremendous offensive potential.
Bet 2 units on Milwaukee -1.5 RL to win 3.3 units (+165)
Justin Verlander (-120)
The Houston Astros are in an elite position tonight. Justin Verlander has struggled a bit recently, but he has been an elite pitcher on the road. Through 10 road starts, Verlander owns an 8-2 record with a 1.81 ERA. He also gets a good matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have struggled at times at home this season, but have also added a few key additions at the trade deadline. More importantly, Houston gets a matchup against Alex Wood, who owns a 7-5 record with a 3.68 ERA through 21 starts. The Astros are at their best when playing are playing against left-handed pitching on the road. Verlander is not a pitcher that generally needs a lot of run support, and this is an ideal situation for Houston’s offense.
Bet 3 units on Houston ML to win 2.5 units (-120)
Mike Clevinger (-215)
The Cleveland Indians feature an elite offense in Cleveland, where they are hitting .277 with a .471 slugging percentage and an .819 OPS. They are averaging 5.8 runs per game at home, as well. The Indians also get a matchup against Jaime Barria, who has been struggling with a 3-6 record and a 4.53 ERA over his last 10 starts. Simply put, the Indians offense in Cleveland could be the best offense in the MLB, and they should find success in this matchup. Mike Clevinger has also been enjoying a solid season, recording a 7-7 record with a 3.43 ERA through 21 starts. He has struggled at times at home this season, but he also threw well against the Los Angeles Angels earlier this season. The Indians recently bolstered their bullpen, and they are in a position to pick up another impressive win tonight.
Bet 3 units on Cleveland -1.5 RL to win 2.9 units (-105)
Parlay 2 units on Milwaukee -1.5 RL, Tampa Bay -1.5 RL, Cleveland -1.5 RL, and Seattle -1.5 RL to win 43.61 units (+2180)