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MLB DFS 8/29/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to make up the “Chalk Stack.” They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. They have also been a better offense on the road, where they own a .251 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .771 OPS. The Dodgers are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. Los Angeles is currently a -147 favorite in a game set at 10 runs. They feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.

The Dodgers get a great matchup against Mike Minor, who has featured mixed results this season. Through 23 starts, he owns a 10-6 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He has allowed a 1.4 HR/9, while recording a 7.3 K/9 through 129 innings, as well. He has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .238 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .239/.460/.298 line this season. The Dodgers feature an offense that can dominate anyone, especially in a hitter friendly stadium, which will be the case tonight.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have featured an above average offense this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in team batting average, and 12th in OPS. They have found plenty of success at home this season, as well, posting a .257 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .758 OPS through 67 home games. The Reds are also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in Cincinnati. They are underdogs in a game set at 9 runs, but still feature an implied run total of 4.2 runs.

Freddy Peralta will be taking the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. He has struggled through eight road starts this season, recording a 2-3 record with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has held his opponents to a 0.7 HR/9 with a 11.6 K/9 through 37.1 road innings, though. Peralta has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to post a .229 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA this season. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .196/.360/.308 line on the road this season. Peralta will likely be owned fairly high, making Cincinnati a solid leverage stack in tournaments.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Billy McKinney

McKinney has been playing at a high level over his last 10 games, posting a .367 average with a .767 slugging percentage and a 1.253 OPS over that span. He owns 54% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. McKinney has posted a .793 slugging percentage and a .414 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.

Brian Dozier

Dozier gets a great matchup against Mike Minor in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. He owns a .511 slugging percentage and a .235 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He has also posted 43% hard-hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.

Wilson Ramos

Ramos is hitting .447 with a .789 slugging percentage and a 1.225 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses a 54% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Ramos has posted a .600 slugging percentage and a .263 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2018, as well.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Alex Cobb

Cobb has quietly been heating up recently, posting a 2-6 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He also owns a 0.8 HR/9 with a 6.2 K/9 over his last 64 innings. Furthermore, Cobb has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. He’s a -110 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponent an implied run total of 4.6 runs.

Cobb gets a solid matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who strikeout at an average rate on this slate. Cobb has struggled against nearly everyone this season, but he has gotten progressively better as the months continue. In August, he’s holding his opponents to a .205 average with a .296 slugging percentage and a .240 wOBA. He still comes with an extremely low price tag, but he’s averaging 21 DK points per game over his last five starts. He’s a high upside option for a low price tag tonight.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Neil Walker

Walker continues to play at a high level, posting a .281 average with a .594 slugging percentage and a .978 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and eight RBIs over that span. He also possesses 32% hard-hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Walker owns 0.117 wOBA and 0.091 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.

He gets a matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who has thrown surprisingly well against left-handed batters this season. Still, he’s allowing lefties to hit for a .224 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Walker is hitting fifth in the Yankees lineup, and he has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.

Tucker Barnhart

Barnhart has looked outstanding at home this season, where he’s hitting .283 with a .439 slugging percentage and an .823 OPS through 59 home games. He has also been playing well over the last 15 days, posting a 42% hard-hit rate and a 91 mph exit velocity over that span.

I have already outlined Freddy Peralta, so I won’t do that again. Barnhart is hitting seventh in the Cincinnati lineup, and he could see a few RBI opportunities tonight. He’s a relatively consistent option, who somewhat lacks upside. He’s a player that is best suited for cash games tonight.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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