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MLB DFS 9/18/18 – Bobby’s Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP September 18th, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

 

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

    1. Nationas (-187) –  The Nationals have a modest 4.4 implied run total with a game of a 7.5 over/under.  While usually I would not look to target a team in a 7.5 O/U in a major pitcher’s park but I really think there is a ton of value + upside to be had in this Nationals stack.  Strasburg is on the mound and while the Marlins are implied for over 3 runs I would not be surprised to see them get shut out in this game. I think this 7.5 run total is more of a testament of the Nationals ability to score than the other way around so I also believe -187 in favor of the Nationals is a great value bet.  Was surprised not to see this closer to the -210/-220 range.  Sandy Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins and he is the farthest thing from a quality pitcher.  Whether it is in the majors or the minors, Alcantara has struggled and I don’t see how this changes against one of the most potent lineups in baseball (even though it’s September and they underperformed this year).  Alcantara has a career 4.92 xFIP and 5.04 SIERA in the majors which are extremely good indicators on how bad Alcantara is.  His BB% is absolutely terrible well above 13% which plays a major role in his terrible numbers.  He is able to generate swinging strikes so if he’s not walking people he technically has some pretty large K upside which most likely is baked into Vegas’s modest Nationals total.  With an umpire behind the plate that has been traditionally a hitter’s umpire, I am pretty confident of the Nationals producing against Alcantara with their best lineup in play.  Keep your exposure to the top 5 hitters in this stack of Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Juan Soto. They have as much upside of any 5-man stack on the entire slate.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Trea Turner
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Bryce Harper

 

Bobby’s (LOW-OWNED) BOMB’S PER POSITION
C: Kurt Suzuki (117 wRC+/.349 wOBA/.220 ISO)
1B:  Tyler Austin (120 wRC+/.349 wOBA/.264 ISO)
2B: Josh Harrison (.191 ISO)
SS: Paul DeJong (106 wRC+/.328 wOBA/.203 ISO)
3B: Nolan Arenado (200 wRC+/.494 wOBA/.391 ISO)
OF1: Khris Davis (118 wRC+/.340 wOBA/.255 ISO)
OF2: AJ Pollock (91 wRC+/.317 wOBA/.248 ISO)
OF3: Wil Myers (114 wRC+/.338 wOBA/.240 ISO)

 

Good luck everyone let’s hit this slate out of the park!

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

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