AP Game Theory Decisions 10/22
Happy Monday Karma Nation! I hope everyone is coming into this Monday fresh off a profitable weekend. We have a large nine game slate to tackle tonight. Tonight, the Game Theory Decision blog is going to look into a players ceiling & floor to help me make better decisions when building my lineups. First and foremost, let’s figure out how we are going to attack this slate. On large slates, my goal is to always narrow down my games to target, it really isn’t optimal to try picking single players from each and every game. Here are my thoughts for tonights slate;
Games/Teams to attack-> Spurs/Lakers, Bulls/Mavs, Knicks, & One player from the Raptors
On the fence-> Wizards/Blazers, Grizz/Jazz
Full Fades-> Magic/Celtics, Pacers/Wolves, Suns/Warriors, Hornets
The teams I am attacking tonight all have massive totals & are dealing with injuries or suspensions that should lead to a tighter rotation and more predictable usage spots. Two of the games I’m debating on fading are arguably GPP fades, but really my goal tonight is to maximize exposure to the spots I listed above. However, let me quickly elaborate on a few of these fade spots.
Pacers/Wolves-> With Sabonis confirmed in, both of these teams are pretty much at full health. The Pacers play at a pretty decent pace but are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. The Wolves defense gets a massive upgrade anytime Jimmy Butler is on the court. With all of this being noted, we feel vegas has gotten ahead of itself with the line on this game. We like the UNDERS tonight & also I think these two teams underwhelm overall from a DFS perspective.
Suns/Warriors-> Until the Warriors prices come down a little, I just can’t play them. As I’ve said before, ‘too many mouths to feed’. Additionally, coming off a loss last night, I think we see a massive blowout tonight.
Core Strategy Tonight
Tonight I will be massively overweight the Bulls/Mavs & Spurs/Lakers games. In addition to these spots, let me highlight a few players that might compliment my core;
Kawhi Leonard, 8,800 on DraftKings
We have a small sample size to work off of, but here’s a sneak peak inside of sheet that allows me to look at a players past performances to calculate their previous potential upside/downside. Leonoard has scores of 51 & 44 DK pts thus far. However, his total efficiency rating (DKp/DKu) is 72.5%, which is slightly below average in my model. What this tells me, at Leonards current price, if we see a spike in his efficiency metric, we are going to need him in our lineups.
Prediction-> After taking off a game for rest, we see a very efficient Leonard (84%+) resulting in 55.25 DK pts (6.3x)
Trey Burke, 5,500 on DraftKings
The Knicks are dealing with a ton of injuries; Porzingis, Knox, Lee, Mudiay, & Hicks. With Kevin Knox being the latest injury, most may look at Lance Thomas, Ron Baker, or Mario Hezonja, as they might see additional playing time. Lance Thomas & Ron Baker aren’t DFS viable or relevant in any format. Mario was down in Orlando but he just hasn’t seen much court time. Kevin Knox took a lot of shots, so we need to ask ourselves. . . ‘Who is going to take all of these shots that Kevin Knox was taking’. Trey Burke & Tim Hardaway Jr, of course. A deeper look into Trey Burke show’s that he has been incredibly inefficient (70% efficiency) and due to his favorable price, his fantasy point output really hasn’t killed our lineups.
Prediction-> In a tough matchup, an increase in volume & slight increase in efficiency will carry Burke ABOVE cash/gpp line values against the Bucks -> 37.44 DK points (78%+) & (6.8x)
Jabari Parker, 4,800 on DraftKings
Relative to his previous price, Jabari has been INCREDIBLY inefficient. And as I am typing this, his ownership projections are right around 5%. Awesome. When Jabari is on the court he has averaged over 14 FGA’s in under 25 minutes of play. He has been absolutely ice cold & still has put up a respectable 5x on his CURRENT salary.
Prediction-> In a fast pace game with absolutely no defense, we see a more efficient Jabari (75%+) which results in OVER 29 fantasy points (6x).
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