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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/22/18)

9-game slate on our hands tonight that will be pretty interesting as 4/9 games have spreads of 10 points or more.  A lot of potential blowout risk.  In addition, you can access my CORE-Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Lance Stephenson

Although Lance hasn’t gotten a ton of minutes throughout the first two games this season he is definitely going to see around 25-27 tonight with Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram suspended.  Lance is usually a .94 FP/minute guy (although it has been a bit less in his most recent role with the Lakers) so the boost in minutes is going to make it very easy for the guard to pay off his 3.8k salary.  He is surprisingly projected at sub-10% ownership on a shorter slate.

Fade: Stephen Curry

Although the Warriors have looked vulnerable this season, coming off a loss to the Nuggets and a buzzer beater win against the Jazz, I think they blow the Suns out with ease back at home tonight.  The spread on this game is 12 points as of right now and it would not surprise me to see Curry sit out the fourth.  At 10.1k Curry is going to need the full 35-37 minutes he’s projected tonight to pay off his salary with all the mouths to feed on Golden State.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan hasn’t missed a step and looks like he’s in mid-season form coming into this big matchup with the Lakers.  This is a huge pace-up matchup for the Spurs and DeRozan is dirt cheap on Draftkings at 7.4k with usage over 30% in his first two games.  With over 20 field goal attempts with the type of skill set DeRozan provides he is a lock in my GPP games at the shooting guard.

Fade: Devin Booker

As I mentioned in the Steph Curry analysis I think this game is going to end in a major blowout.  Devin Booker relies heavily on shooting efficiency to hit value at 8.4k and matched up with Klay Thompson defense I’m not buying it.  This is going to be a three-quarter game and Booker won’t hit value unless there is a miracle and this game stays close.

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma is an elite play tonight and at 5.5k his ceiling is legitimately 8x with the additional minutes from the Rondo + Ingram suspensions.  Even in his limited minutes, this season Kuzma has been able to produce averaging .85 fantasy points per minute.  His price is not adjusted for the fact that he is projected to see 10 more minutes of action in addition to a bump in usage.  Close to a lock button for me tonight in all three of my tournament lineups.

Fade: Kevin Durant

This could definitely end up hurting me as this game has the second highest over-under on the slate.  If it stays close for all four quarters I am most likely screwed but I’m taking a stand and feel confident on the matchups and game flow of this game.  Kevin Durant is averaging 1.36 FP/minute this year and if he does go for the 36 minutes he’s projected to, at the pace he’s been playing he will barely hit value.  With this game having starters done towards the end of the third quarter I’m projecting 30-32 minutes for Durant tonight.  If he beats me at 10.4k so be it.

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: LaMarcus Aldridge

As you can tell I’m pretty high on this Lakers/Spurs game with the Spurs getting the boost in the pace of play.  Aldridge is getting a price drop after disappointing DFS players in his narrative game against his former team in the Blazers where he shot efficiently but didn’t see close to the amount of usage he’s used to at 15.7%. Meanwhile, he was still able to put up 33.5 DK points which is an encouraging sign for a pace up game where he is projected 28-30% usage.

Fade: Jaren Jackson

People will definitely be chasing the Jaren Jackson Jr. points and that’s one of the biggest faults one can make in NBA DFS.  Jackson shot 75% from the floor and in only 28 minutes of play, I don’t see a major ceiling for the rookie with his major price bump up to 5.2k ( a $600 increase).  I’m staying away from Jackson in a tough defensive matchup in one of the lowest totals on the slate.

Center

Top GPP Play: Bobby Portis

Portis barely came through the other night where he shot terrible but still salvaged points by being an absolute beast on the boards.  Assuming he is matched up with Dorian Finney-Smith I don’t see how he doesn’t eat on the boards again tonight.  This is the biggest miss-match on the slate and Portis has a major advantage.

Fade: Draymond Green

Staying on brand by fading all the Warriors tonight.  Draymond’s price is definitely reasonable given that he is a lock for peripherals and if he can shoot efficiently he crushes this 6.9k price tag.  I just don’t think the minutes will be there to get that ceiling I want exposure to.  With that being said, he’s the one I am highest on out of Curry, Thompson, and Durant.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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