AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 10/29
*NBA Playbook (1st image)
*Tonight’s unique injury situation & usage breakdown (2nd image)
Tonight’s unique injury situation:
*Giannis Antetokounmpo is OUT (Ersan Ilyasova starting) -Bucks
*Kawhi Leonard is OUT (Rest) – Raptors
*Anthony Davis, Elfrid Payton & Darius Miller are OUT – Pelicans
The sample size is very small but below is how the usage distribution shakes out with these key players OFF the court tonight.
Khris Middleton, Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Eric Bledsoe & Nikola Mirotic’s USAGE & Fantasy Points per Minute rates all increase to elite levels with these key players out. Pricing on DraftKings had no possible way of adjusting to this kind of situation which makes each of these players by far the best value on this slate. Tonight, I don’t care about ownership, every lineup I make will be built around these core players. And in a situation like this, the only way to be overweight the field is to go 100%.
Sure, you can get a little weird in GPPs. Actually, there is a good chance half the field will fade these players in some way. However, if the games play out and each player sees his normal allotment of minutes, those “get weird builds” where they fade these core players will most likely be drawing dead.