Over Under 2/2 – Philadelphia 76ers/Golden State Warriors
I wasn’t playing on making a play with T.J. McConnell tonight, but when the prop is too low, the prop is too low. He owns 3+ assists in each of his last 14 games, while averaging a total of 5.3 assists per game over that span. He has also recorded three or more assists in 86.2% of his games since November 28th. This game features a projected total of 240.5 points, meaning McConnell will see plenty of assist opportunities, even in limited minutes. The Golden State Warriors own an implied total of 125 points tonight. On the season, Klay Thompson is averaging 18.2% of the Warriors points per game, which would set him at 22.8 points tonight. Keep in mind, he’s a pure scorer, who tends to overperform in plus matchups. The Philadelphia 76ers have featured one of the worst defenses in the NBA against scoring shooting guards, allowing them to average the fifth most point (23.5) per game this season. There should be plenty of focus surrounding Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant tonight, leaving Thompson to potentially have another massive game.
Play $50 on Klay Thompson OVER 21.5 points and T.J. McConnell OVER 2.5 assists to win $111.50 (2.23x)
Dropping Dimes – Los Angeles Lakers/Los Angeles Clippers
Rajon Rondo recently returned from injury, and he has been locked into big minutes with Lonzo Ball now injured. In those three games, Rondo is averaging 11.7 assists in 38.3 minutes per game. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-30s again tonight, and Rondo is a near lock for 10+ assists. On the season, he’s averaging 0.29 assists per minute, meaning he would need an average game with 35 minutes tonight to hit double-digit assists. Lou Williams is quietly assisting the ball at an elite level for the Los Angeles Clippers right now. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 7.8 assists in only 27 minutes per game. He has played 27+ minute in each of his last three games, recording 9+ assists in each of those games. Williams is expected to see around 30 minutes tonight, and the Lakers won’t have the luxury of Ball’s defense on the court. There’s a very real possibility that this duo could potentially combine for the 23 assists themselves. We get an added player, though, and Patrick Beverley is that man. He’s averaging 4.8 assists in 36.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. His assist numbers have been wildly inconsistent this season, but he down own 14 in his last two games. More importantly, Beverley has been locked into minutes in the high-30s, giving him the potential for assists in what should be a fast paced game. His few assists simply add to the upside of Rondo and Williams in this play. For what it’s worth, I also like the 3x and 5x plays here.
Play $50 on Rajon Rondo, Lou Williams, and Patrick Beverley OVER 22.5 assists to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 2/2 – Brooklyn Nets/San Antonio Spurs
LaMarcus Aldridge is an extremely talented big man, who is averaging 26.0 points in 33.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. His numbers are a bit inflated because of the injury to DeMar DeRozan, who will be back tonight, though. With that being said, Aldridge is averaging 23.6 points per game at home this season, where he is shooting 53.4% from the field. He gets an elite matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who are allowing opposing centers to averaging 25.8 points per game this season. Aldridge will find plenty of time on the court tonight, and he’s primed to go over 23 points in this type of a matchup. D’Angelo Russell is a volume shooter, and that’s what I’m banking on tonight. He has taken 8+ three-point attempts in seven of his last eight games, and he’s averaging 9.8 three-point attempts per game over that span. He’s shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc on the road this season, and the San Antonio Spurs are allowing the fourth most three-pointers made (3.2) per game to opposing shooting guards. Russell tends to split his minutes at the guard positions for Brooklyn, but his volume will be there regardless, as he’s currently expected to play 30+ minutes tonight.
Play $50 on LaMarcus Aldridge OVER 22.5 points and D’Angelo Russell OVER 3.5 three-pointers made to win $124.50 (2.49x)
Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.