NBA DFS 1/31/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems » DFS Karma
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NBA DFS 1/31/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate, as these two teams rank 10th and seventh in the NBA in pace, respectively. Golden State also features the best offense in the league, ranking first in offensive rating. With that being said, Philadelphia ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Warriors are currently -9.5 point favorites in a game set at 240.5 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 125 points.

Golden State features five players that will carry ownership tonight, while they have seven players that can be considered. This stack will only focus on three of them, but I’ll list the other four after the recommendations. Stephen Curry has certainly cooled off a bit recently, as he’s only averaging 24.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists (41.8 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he has scored 40+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games. He has also flashed elite upside over that span, scoring 57.25 and 74.5 DK points in two of those games. He’s a focal point of the offense, and should find plenty of success in a game that features one of the highest implied totals of recent games. Draymond Green has struggled quite a bit with Golden State, but he’s averaging 5.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 2.0 steals (33.3 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been heating up recently, scoring 33+ DK points in five of his last six games, including a 52.5 DK point performance against a the New Orleans Pelicans. This game will be fast paced, allowing Green to record plenty of peripheral stats that will allow him to hit value. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson also make sense here, but I’m siding slightly with DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is seeing limited minutes, but he’s averaging 15.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists (31.9 DK points) in 21.5 minutes per game since returning from injury. Cousins is averaging 1.46 DK points per minute, while recording a 28.4% usage rating through five games this season, as well. While he is likely to only see minutes in the mid-20s, he still comes with a relatively high floor for his current price tag. The final two Golden State players that can be considered are Kevon Looney and Andre Iguodala, who are cheap, but will feature less ownership than the other five options.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets have been playing at an average pace this season, ranking 15th in the NBA in pace through 52 games. They get a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 23rd in the league in pace thus far. Brooklyn has also found offensive success throughout the season, ranking 13th in the NBA in offensive rating, while San Antonio ranks 22nd in the league in defensive rating. The Nets are +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 227 points, but they still feature an implied total of 109.8 points tonight.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could be the highest owned Brooklyn player of the night, but he will likely be underowned for this slate. He has played 20+ minutes in each of his last three games, while catching fire over that span. Overall, he’s averaging 14.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists (27.7 DK points) in 24.0 minutes per game. He’s expected to see similar minutes tonight, and RHJ is still a bit too cheap for his efficiency and recent production. Shabazz Napier has seen an increase in minutes since the injury to Spencer Dinwiddie, and he seems to be flying under the radar a bit too much. In three games without Dinwiddie, Napier is averaging 20.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.7 steals (32.9 DK points) in 26.3 minutes per game. He’s still relatively cheap, but has flashed 40+ DK points when given the minutes. He’s expected to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight, and Napier is a scorer, who has proven he’s taking on a large role in the Brooklyn offense on a nightly basis. D’Angelo Russell’s recent inconsistencies will keep his ownership a bit low, but he’s still averaging 24.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.8s teals (44.4 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 30+ minutes in five of his last seven games, scoring 50+ DK points in each of those games. While his minutes certainly are inconsistent, he’s expected to play 30+ minutes again tonight, and his price tag doesn’t represent a 50+ DK point ceiling. Brooklyn is a team that could get lost in the shuffle with a few elite games on this slate, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Reggie Jackson

Jackson has seen increased minutes and increased production recently. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 18.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists (33.1 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game. More importantly, he has scored 29+ DK points in each of those games, while flashing a 40 DK point ceiling. He has also been a slightly better option in Detroit this season.

Jackson gets a great matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank 24th in the NBA in against point guards this season. In their only matchup, Jackson saw 35.2 minutes, scoring 30.25 DK points. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes once again tonight, and Jackson is entirely too cheap for his recent production. He can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

JaVale McGee

McGee has performed extremely well on a per minute basis this season, as he’s averaging 10.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks (25.7 DK points) in only 22.1 minutes per game through 44 games. He saw 27 minutes in his last game, scoring 42.5 DK points against the Philadelphia 76ers. He has also proven he doesn’t need big minutes to score, producing 36 DK points in only 16 minutes against the Houston Rockets a few games ago.

McGee has yet to play the Los Angeles Clippers this season, but they rank 28th in the NBA against centers this season. They will be pushing the pace, as well, giving McGee opportunities for fantasy points, even in limited minutes. He’s expected to play minutes in the low-20s tonight, and McGee has proven he can easily exceed value in a plus matchup at his current price tag. He can be considered in cash games, but may be better suited for tournaments tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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