Over Under 2/2 – Sacramento Kings/Los Angeles Clippers
This is one of the craziest plays I have seen, specifically because you’re getting nearly 3x on it. Tobias Harris has had a few bad games sprinkled in recently, but he’s still averaging 26.0 points per game over the last 10 days. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 15.9 shot attempts and 4.5 free throw attempts per game. Those numbers could increase because of the pace of this game, and Harris scored 28 points in his only matchup with Sacramento this season, leaving plenty of room for error at 19.5 points. Buddy Hield has taken on a massive offensive role for the Sacramento Kings recently, and he has scored 20+ points in nine of his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s averaging 18.5 shot attempts per game. He struggled in his only matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, but his recent scoring production is far too high for the total and odds on this play.
Play $50 on Tobias Harris OVER 19.5 points and Buddy Hield OVER 18.5 points to win $132.00 (2.64x)
Scoring Champ – Sacramento Kings/Los Angeles Clippers
MKF is handing out Christmas plays the day after! This total is beyond crazy, and I wouldn’t mind taking a shot at the 5x (79.5 points) for the odds. This trio is combining to average 80.0 points per game over the last 10 days, and this game is going to be played at a blazing pace. As mentioned above, I believe Harris and Hield hit their overs, leaving Danilo Gallinari to need 24 points if they each go only 0.5 points over. Gallinari has been a consistent option recently, scoring 21+ points in five consecutive games. While I certainly worry about Gallinari’s lack of shot attempts on a nightly basis, I feel this is a plus matchup for him, and Harris/Hield will be doing the heavy lifting on this play.
Play $50 on Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, and Buddy Hield OVER 62.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 5/5 – Sacramento Kings/Los Angeles Clippers
It isn’t often I use three plays in the same game, but when opportunity comes knocking, I’m here to answer it. Tobias Harris and Buddy Hield are relatively obvious with my analysis above. Danilo Gallinari was arguably the most difficult to predict, as he’s likely going to have to shoot 50% from the three-point line to his this number. With that being said, he has hit three or more three-pointers in four of his last five games, and I do expect him to score well tonight. De’Aaron Fox has recorded 31 assists in his last three games, and the pace will bring more opportunities for those assists tonight. He recorded nine in their first matchup this season, and he’s averaging a healthy 7.5 assists per game on the season. Willie Cauley-Stein hasn’t been able to consistently record nine or more rebounds recently, but he has 30 rebounds over his last two games, and there should be plenty of shot attempts in this game. He has been a significantly better option at home, which is worrisome, but I still feel this total is a bit low for what he can do when given the minutes.
Play $20 on Tobias Harris OVER 19.5 points, Buddy Hield OVER 19.5 points, Willie Cauley-Stein OVER 8.5 rebounds, Danilo Gallinari OVER 2.5 three pointers made, and De’Aaron Fox OVER 6.5 assists to win $400 (20x)