Bales' Bananas - Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 2/1/19 » DFS Karma
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Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 2/1/19

Glass Cleaner – Houston Rockets/Denver Nuggets

Any time you can get three players with double-digit rebounding potential and a total well under 30, it makes for a solid play. Nikola Jokic has caught fire recently, recording double-digit rebounds in four of his last five games. Over that span, he’s averaging 13.6 rebounds per game, and he has flashed 20+ rebound potential. Jokic is also averaging 12.5 rebounds in 30.3 minutes per game against Houston this season, while also being a significantly better rebounder in Denver. Kenneth Faried has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last three games, and he has totaled 35 rebounds over that span. More importantly for this play, he has posted 10+ rebounds in each of those games. Denver has performed well against rebounding centers this season, but Faried is a hustle player, who is nearly locked into double-digit rebounds when he gets 30+ minutes, which should be the case tonight. James Harden has quietly been a dominant rebounding option for Houston. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.0 rebounds per game, and he has recorded 11+ rebounds in three of his last four contests. He has also been consistent, totaling 6+ rebounds in nine of his last 10 games, while averaging 9.1 rebounds per game over that span. Keep in mind, Harden is necessarily the player that is supposed to play a major role in this play, as Jokic and Faried have a very realistic chance to hit this total themselves. Harden simply adds a safety net here.

Play $50 on Nikola Jokic, James Harden, and Kenneth Faried OVER 26.5 rebounds to win $100 (2x)

 

Over Under 2/2 – Atlanta Hawks/Utah Jazz

Trae Young has seen his play get better throughout his rookie season, and this total is a bit surprising today. He has scored fewer than 16 points in only one of his last 12 games, and he’s averaging 20.3 points per game over that span. In those games, he’s also averaging 15.1 shot attempts, 6.7 three-point attempts, and 5.1 free throw attempts. The Utah Jazz have a solid defense, but they are allowing opposing point guards to average 22.9 points per game, which ranks slightly below average in the NBA. Young will be locked into big minutes with a large offensive role, and he should have no problems exceeding this total once again tonight. Joe Ingles is a bit more difficult of a player to predict, but I’m willing to take on that challenge for 2.59x the play. He’s averaging 6.1 three-point attempts per game over his last 10 games, but he only recorded 3+ three-pointers made in two of those games. With that being said, he’s shooting 39.4% from beyond the arc at home, which is significantly better than his 31.5% three-point average on the road. This game is going to be fast paced and high scoring, and Ingles has taken double-digit three-point attempts in two of his last nine contests. Ingles has a very real possibility to attempt 8+ three-point attempts tonight, and if he does, I’m siding over at home. Keep in mind, he may only need roughly six three-point attempts to hit the over, which is a number he has taken in three of his last four contests.

Play $50 on Trae Young OVER 15.5 points and Joe Ingles OVER 2.5 three-pointers made to win $129.50 (2.59x)

 

Over Under 5/5 – Boston Celtics/New York Knicks

The New York Knicks do not feature anyone defensively that can keep up with Kyrie Irving. Prior to his recent injury, he was averaging 30.0 points per game in his last six games. He’s averaging 20.0 points against the Knicks this season, but is only shooting 41.1% from the field, which is significantly lower than his 49.9% on the season. Luke Kornet is probable to return tonight, and he’ll see big minutes if the players from Dallas do not suit up. Kornet was shooting a ton of threes prior to his injury, and that will likely be his mindset again tonight. He’s also shooting an absurd 49.1% from beyond the arc on the road, and while that almost has to regress, Kornet doesn’t need that type of efficiency to his the over tonight. Robinson will likely see around 20 minutes tonight, and that is all he needs to hit the over. He’s averaging 2.7 blocks in only 15.3 minutes per game against Boston this season, and Robinson is averaging 4.4 blocks and steals in 18.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. The Noah Vonleh play is somewhat relying on the Dallas guys not playing tonight. Does he have a chance to hit the over if DeAndre Jordan suits up? Absolutely, but it becomes significantly less likely. Over the last 10 days, Vonleh is averaging 9.8 rebounds in only 27.3 minutes per game. If the Dallas players aren’t available tonight, he’ll be forced into 30+ minutes, and he has recorded 12 and 13 rebounds in his last two games with 30+ minutes. Furthermore, he’s averaging 11.0 rebounds in only 28.5 minutes per game against Boston this season, and he’s in a good spot to find success once again tonight. NOTE: The Dallas players will not make their debut tonight. 

Play $20 on Kyrie Irving OVER 23.5 points, Luke Kornet OVER 1.5 three-pointers made, Mitchell Robinson OVER 2.5 steals + blocks, Marcus Smart UNDER 4.5 assists, and Noah Vonleh OVER 11.5 rebounds to win $360 (18x)

 

Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

 

NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.

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