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Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight NBA Prop Picks 2/4/19

Over Under 2/2 – Atlanta Hawks/Washington Wizards

Bradley Beal has taken over the Washington Wizards offense since the injury to John Wall, and he has found plenty of success. His usage rating is now sitting over 30%, while he’s averaging 27.4 points per game over his last 15 games. Over that span he’s also averaging 21.3 shot attempts, 8.0 three-point attempts, and 5.6 free throw attempts per game. He gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who are allowing a league-high 24.7 points per game to shooting guards this season. In three matchups, Beal is averaging 29.7 points in 39.1 minutes per game against Atlanta, and he should be able to find similar results tonight. John Collins has seen surprisingly inconsistent minutes and production recently, and he feels like the riskier option of the duo here. With that being said, he owns a team-high 17.6% rebounding percentage, and Atlanta is allowing opposing power forwards to average 11.4 rebounds per game against them. Collins has needed only 27.6 minutes per game to average 11.7 rebounds against Atlanta this season, and he could be in line for another big double double tonight.

Play $50 on Bradley Beal OVER 25.5 points and John Collins OVER 9.5 rebounds to win $116.50 (2.33x)

 

Over Under 2/2 – Milwaukee Bucks/Brooklyn Nets

Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a similar spot as Beal tonight, as he owns a usage rating slightly over 30% this season, while he’s averaging 28.2 points per game over his last 13 games. He’s also averaging a healthy 18.5 shot attempts, 2.8 three-point attempts, and 10.1 free throw attempts per game over that span. Antetokounmpo can play all five positions, so it’s somewhat difficult to project where he will play on any given night, but Brooklyn simply doesn’t have anyone that can guard him. In their only matchup this season, Antetokounmpo scored 31 points in 34.2 minutes, and he should be able to produce 26+ points once again tonight. Jarrett Allen recently produced a string of six games with double-digit rebounds, but has has only done so in one of his last five contests now. He has been playing somewhat of limited minutes recently, and he’s expected to see minutes in the mid-20s tonight. He also gets a tough matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have a center – Brook Lopez – who loves playing away from the basket. With his style of play, Milwaukee is giving up the least amount of rebounds (12.9) per game to opposing centers. In their only matchup this season, Allen recorded only four rebounds in 20.4 minutes. While he may get more minutes tonight, it’s unlikely he sees enough to have a chance at double-digit rebounds in this type of a matchup.

Play $50 on Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 25.5 points and Jarrett Allen UNDER 9.5 rebounds to win $116 (2.32x)

 

Over Under 3/3 – Indiana Pacers/New Orleans Pelicans

Jrue Holiday had a prop entirely too high a few nights ago, but now it’s too low. Simply put, he has scored 20+ points in 17 of his last 24 games, while averaging 21.7 points per game over that span. He’s expected to see a usage rating around 30% tonight with the New Orleans Pelicans dealing with multiple injuries in their rotation. The Indiana Pacers have performed well against scoring guards throughout the season, but their defense takes a major hit with the injury to Victor Oladipo. Holiday should continue to shot upwards of 20 times tonight, and there’s very little reason to believe he won’t score 20+ points in this matchup. Three-pointers made can be a tricky prop to project, but I’m simply looking at the volume for Bojan Bogdanovic. He has taken more than six three-pointers in only three games this season. He’s also shooting 42.9% from beyond the arc, and he would need to be extremely efficient with six or fewer three-point attempts to hit the over. For what it’s worth, Bogdanovic is averaging only 4.5 three-point attempts per game this season, and that’s the general average amount he’s taking per game, regardless of how many games are included. While Bogdanovic has the ability to be an efficient shooter, it’s simply unlikely he takes enough three-point shots to hit this over. Domantas Sabonis owns an elite 20.8% rebounding percentage on the season, but that doesn’t matter when he isn’t on the court. He has played 24 or fewer minutes in each of his last three games, and that’s what he’s expected to play again tonight. If that’s the case, Sabonis will need slightly under 0.5 rebounds per minute to record double-digit boards, and he’s averaging 0.38 rebounds per minute on the season. While the pace could help him in this game, I’m rarely going to project a player that double-digit rebounds while playing minutes in the low-20s, and Sabonis is no exception.

Play $50 on Jrue Holiday OVER 19.5 points, Bojan Bogdanovic UNDER 2.5 three-pointers made, and Domantas Sabonis UNDER 9.5 rebounds to win $220 (4.4x)

 

Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

 

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