Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/19)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/19)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

We have a bit of a crazy slate at only 3 PM EST with several stars already being ruled out. Stephen Curry’s sitting out tonight, allowing Jordan Poole to take over the offense. He’s flashed elite scoring potential throughout the season thus far. Poole will be looked into a massive offensive role and big minutes tonight. With Kevin Durant out tonight and Kyrie Irving still away from the team, James Harden is in a full focal point role once again. Luckily, he isn’t absurdly underpriced tonight, although he’ll be an easy player to fit into any league on this slate. We could see the return of the 35+ point triple-double player in a great matchup against the Orlando Magic.

Patty Mills is another player that will benefit from the absence of Durant tonight. He’s been starting with Joe Harris out, and Mills will be locked into 30+ minutes once again. He could take on a larger role as a solid scorer, and Mills is entirely too cheap on this slate. The fourth clear-cut cash game option at guard tonight is Jalen Brunson. Similar to the other players, he’ll benefit from an injury, as Luka Doncic is expected to miss tonight. Brunson posted 42.25 DK points in 37 minutes without Doncic in his last game, and he gets a rematch against the Phoenix Suns tonight. He’s been an outstanding option without Doncic in the lineup, and Brunson can be considered in all leagues tonight.

GPP

With so many clear cash game options, I believe there are a few elite GPP plays at guard. Fred VanVleet is in an elite spot against the Sacramento Kings, who’ve struggled against guards this season. He’s been playing better in recent games, and VanVleet comes with tremendous upside. If there weren’t so many obvious plays, he’d have made my cash pool tonight. Pivoting off of Jalen Brunson could be easy with Dennis Schroder. They’re roughly the same price, and the majority of players will be Brunson in this situation. Schroder comes with quite a bit of upside, though, as he’ll start with Jaylen Brown out once again. The Los Angeles Lakers have struggled against point guards this season, and Schroder gets the bonus of a revenge narrative tonight. Malcolm Brogdon, Lonzo Ball, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Monte Morris are all interesting options in tournaments, as well.

Oddly enough, you can likely start shooting guard with Andrew Wiggins in tournaments. He’s consistently been a boom or bust option throughout his career, and people are already making jokes about him busting tonight. He’s projecting for significantly lower ownership than several Golden State players, making him a great tournament option. Wiggins does have the potential to take over the offense, especially against a bad Detroit Pistons team. Paul George is another high upside option at this position. He continues to dominate without Kawhi Leonard in the offense. George gets a great matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, and he’s an elite tournament option, as he isn’t one of the clear spend-ups on this slate. Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, Damion Lee, and Caris LeVert can be considered on this slate.

Forward

Cash

Small forward is the only position that doesn’t currently have someone projecting for ridiculous ownership. With that being said, there’s one player that stands above the rest for me – Bruce Brown. He’s scored 30+ DK points in 2 consecutive games without Joe Harris. He’ll be locked into more minutes without Kevin Durant in the lineup, as well. Brown gets a great matchup against the Orlando Magic, and it’s smart to save salary at arguably the worst position on this slate. There are riskier options listed above with small forward eligibility that can be considered here because of the lack of elite options at the position.

With several forwards and bigs out for the Golden State Warriors, Nemanja Bjelica and Juan Toscano-Anderson could be two of the highest-owned players on the slate. They’ve both found success on a per-minute basis with Bjelica being the preferred option of the duo. Still, they’re each likely to see plenty of minutes and they come with absurdly low price tags. Kristaps Porzingis scored 48 DK points while shooting 35% from the field in his last game. He’s looked elite for the Dallas Mavericks without Luka Doncic healthy, and he should be treated as such again tonight. He barely saw a price increase even with that success, and Porzingis is another elite option, although he’s significantly more expensive than the Warriors options.

GPP

Franz Wagner continues to be underpriced for a rookie that should continue to get better as the season continues. He’s posted 28+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, and he gets a matchup against quite a few of the Brooklyn Nets backups tonight. He’ll go overlooked with so many elite salary relief options, but Wagner boasts quite a bit of upside for his price tag. Gordon Hayward gets a great matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who’ve struggled against scoring small forwards this season. He’s a versatile scorer with the ability to find points at all levels. Hayward comes with terrible risk, but he also posted nearly 40 DK points against Indiana earlier this season. That game was without Terry Rozier, although Rozier’s involvement in the offense hasn’t historically changed Haywards. Harrison Barnes, Brandon Ingram, and DeAndre Bembry can be considered here, as well.

If you’re saving salary at this position, you’re likely just locking in one of the cash options. With that being said, James Johnson is a high upside player for a low price tag. He saw 23 minutes in the Brooklyn Nets’ last game, and he could see a few extra minutes tonight, adding to his upside. Instead, it makes more sense to go against the field and spend up for a higher-priced option. Domantas Sabonis and Giannis Antetokounmpo are two of the top options. They both get elite matchups against defenses that struggle with bigs. They’re varying price tags, and either can be considered in tournaments on this slate. Blake Griffin, Josh Hart, and Miles Bridges are three more interesting options on this slate.

Center

Cash

Nikola Jokic is currently questionable, but he’ll make an elite option in all leagues if he’s starting. He’s arguably the best fantasy option in the NBA at this point, averaging 63.3 DK points per game over the last 10 days. The Chicago Bulls don’t have anyone that will be able to slow him down without Nikola Vucevic, making Jokic arguably the best spend-up on this slate. Deandre Ayton is coming off of a great game against the Dallas Mavericks, and he gets a rematch against them tonight. They’ve struggled against centers throughout the season, and I expect that to continue in this matchup.

GPP

LaMarcus Aldridge makes an interesting option on this slate. He’s seen an inconsistent role, although he’s produced when given the opportunities. He should be locked into solid minutes for Brooklyn tonight, and he’s too cheap for his ceiling. Still, he’s center-only on this slate, making it more difficult to get him into your lineups. Isaiah Stewart gets an interesting matchup against the Golden State Warriors, who could choose to go small tonight. Stewart should be locked into 30+ minutes, making him a solid tournament option. On the other side, Kevon Looney can be considered, as well. Robert Williams, Ivica Zubac, and Richaun Holmes can be considered at center in tournaments on this slate.

 

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