NBA Silly Season is upon us and we are only a month into the season. Tonight’s slate is wild, there’s already a ton of big injury news that’s dropped (Curry, Draymond and Durant all out) and a ton of big news we are still waiting on (Jokic and Lebron both Questionable). On slates like this there are just too many really good plays to go crazy with your player pool as these injuries open up a lot of great value. It’s going to be a fun Friday night 9 game slate so let’s dig in.
+EV Strategy:
- This slate is a S*** Show and going to be one of the craziest slates of the year. The chalk is going to be really strong chalk so I’m not going to go crazy with some 1% owned plays tonight. We have big injury news we’re waiting on regarding Jokic and that news probably won’t drop until after lock. If Jokic is ruled out that opens up a lot of Denver value that should be low owned based on when the news drops. I’d plan accordingly and we may be able to get Barton, Jamychal and Monte Morris all at low ownership in this spot. This is another slate we’re gonna want to be by our computer all night so get comfy.
Game Stacks:
This slate has a few games I really like and a few games I may have nobody in my player pool from. There are some obvious teams to target tonight based on injuries so the key to the slate may be picking the right bring back on the other side of the game.
- GS vs Detroit – The Warriors have tons of value that’s opened up with Curry, Draymond, Iggy and Otto all ruled out tonight. I’ll have lot of Poole tonight even though I’m sure he’ll be chalky. There’s also some value here in Bjelica, Payton and Damion Lee. The Detroit side of this game should be low owned and I don’t mind playing 1 or 2 plays from this side. Cade Cunningham is a great bring-back as his usage has been on the rise and he’s had back to back 40+ fantasy point games. Jerami Grant is also a decent play but I would only use him in game stacks with Poole or Wiggins.
- Chicago v Denver – I see this game as potentially deciding the slate. If Jokic is ruled out after lock we are going to want some pieces from this Denver side and if Jokic is in, we probably want a good amount of a potentially lower owned Joker. Barton and Monte Morris would be my favorite plays on Denver if Jokic is ruled out and we would get Jamychal Green also in a good spot. The Chicago side is sneaky here as I like Derozan, Lavine and Lonzo all as bring backs and great GPP plays. They all should come in at low ownership but I would try to pick one of Derozan or Lavine as your bring back. I’ll be mixing and matching in my GPP allocations.
GPP Plays:
Tonight I wouldn’t fade most of the chalk but instead try to either correlate or get a little different in 1 or 2 spots on your rosters. I won’t be fading Harden or Poole but realize they will be chalky.
- Nikola Jokic – I always love The Joker and his rates without MPJ are still absurd at 1.94 fpm and 34% usage on the year. He’s currently listed as Questionable and I don’t think we are going to get this news before lock. I’ll have him locked into rosters, if he plays we should get a slight ownership discount because of the Questionable tag. If he ends up being ruled out, we need to make sure we have multiple spots on our rosters with plays from the late games to plan some late swaps.
- Zach Lavine – With all the value and studs on this slate I’m guessing Lavine will get overlooked here. He’s priced at an affordable $8600 price tag and is my favorite bring back from Chicago for my Denver/Chicago stacks. I don’t see ownership updated yet but I think he’ll come in at sub 5%. His rates this year with Vucevic off the floor are 1.18 fpm and 35% usage. He’s one of the league leaders in minutes every year so we have a safe floor and high ceiling at low ownership in one of my favorite games of the night. In addition, he gives your rosters some flexibility should we need to make some late swaps for the Denver news.
- THJ – He’s my favorite play on the Mavs tonight mainly because of the price tag. Doncic is out again tonight but DK still has yet to price up THJ. On the season, THJ is at 1.2 fpm and 27% usage without Doncic and looking back to last year without Luca he still had similar usage and was at 1.02 fpm. The big question mark on him is how much ownership he gets. It’s a tough match-up vs. Phoenix and there’s a lot of great value plays and spend-ups which leads me to believe the mid-range goes somewhat overlooked as far as ownership. I’ll wait for an ownership update but if he comes in at 25-30% ownership I’ll be trying to get well above that. Keep an eye out on ownership projections but I have a feeling his ownership comes down a bit with everyone forgetting who the best plays were at the start of the day with all this news.
Fades:
- Lakers vs. Boston – As of now, I’m expecting Lebron to play tonight and if that’s the case I don’t want any part of this game. The Lakers studs are all priced up and there isn’t much usage left for the Talen Horton Tucker’s of the world. There also isn’t much to like on the Boston side assuming Schroder plays (currently Questionable). Tatum ($10400) is overpriced based on his rates without Jaylen Brown (only at 1.22 fpm on the year without Brown). We’ll need to keep our eye out for news but if Lebron and Schroder play I’m going to cross this game off entirely.
I’m excited about this evenings slate and will be playing a little heavier than usual. I’ve been on quite a heater this week so I’m hoping to cap off the week with a bink. I do feel we gain a little extra edge on the competition when there’s this much news breaking so do your research and let’s crush this slate!
Hope everyone has a fun Friday night and enjoys the games.
Max
