Top Tier: Russell Westbrook- Westy comes in as the top overall point guard tonight, per usual, but he falls behind Anthony Davis and James Harden for cash games given the blowout risk in a game against the Cavs. Regardless, Westy is sub-$12,000 in a matchup with the Cavs who rank bottom-five in the NBA in defensive efficiency to opposing point guards this season.
Mid Tier: Kemba Walker- Kemba has been one of my most-owned players this NBA season, and I’m going right back to the well tonight against the Hawks who are on a back-to-back. There is some blowout risk, but Kemba is under $10,000 and sports a 30+% usage and assist rate in a massive pace up spot against the fastest paced team in the NBA…who aren’t known for their defense.
Low Tier: Tony Parker (FanDuel)- If looking to punt on FanDuel for you low score drop, look no further than Tony Parker in the same matchup against the Hawks. You can also look at Ryan Arcidiacono in this same tier, but I’m projecting a bump in minutes for Parker tonight given the blowout risk and the stellar matchup. Overall, you would just be hoping for him to be your low score drop at the end of the night.
Top Tier: James Harden- This is one of the keys to the slate, and it is all going to come down to whether or not Chris Paul plays. If he’s out, we can move James Harden and Eric Gordon up to virtual must plays, and the route to go on FanDuel would be to jam in both Harden and Anthony Davis in my opinion. Given the lack of late swap, it’s going to be really hard for me to play either of them if we don’t know prior to lock if he is playing, so let’s hope we get some news!
Mid Tier: Jrue Holiday- I’m not listing a value choice tonight, given that if Paul was out it would become Eric Gordon, and if Paul is in I will be looking to spend up with Jrue Holiday and Bradley Beal in the game of the night. When I say game of the night, I mean it considering that it sports an insane 241 O/U in Vegas, and Holiday remains one of the highest floor/ceiling combos in the NBA. He has a floor game against Boston (34.7 FanDuel points) and I truly believe that’s the low end of his outcomes tonight against the Wizards. If Paul is in, lock in Jrue.
Low Tier: Brad Beal- Beal’s floor is a bit lower than Haliday’s, but if Paul is out I love getting exposure to both sides of that extremely juicy game. Beal has played over 40 minutes in three of his last four games, and it will be tough not to beat value if he is on the floor for that long against New Orleans.
Top Tier: Giannis Antetokounmpo- As you can tell, this is a star-studded slate with names like Westbrook, Harden, Davis and Embiid. Personally I would rank Antetokounmpo second overall on this slate behind Davis, and he would drop to third if he find out that Paul is out. The Bulls are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and they have no rim protection to limit Giannis’ drives to the basket. He sets up as an elite GPP leverage play on this big Wednesday slate.
Mid Tier: Nikola Mirotic- I feel like I write Miro up nightly, but he never seems to get the ownership he deserves. He’s topped 30 FanDuel points in four straight games, and now is part of the best O/U of the night. His usage rate has taken a major downward spike over the last two weeks, so he profiles more of a cash game play rather than a GPP play given that he hasn’t flashed his ceiling in quite some time.
Low Tier: Jonathan Issac- Isaac is on his way to becoming one of the top value plays on this slate with Aaron Gordon “closer to doubtful”. He’s almost at one full fantasy point per minute with Gordon off the floor this season, and the minutes will be secure should AG miss the game.
Top Tier: Anthony Davis- Oh yeah, the return of Anthony Davis as cover boy. Not to mention the O/U, it’s just a six point spread, and it’s at home in New Orleans! Dwight Howard has already been ruled out, and the Wizards have absolutely no shot of hindering Davis tonight. He plays monster minutes, and there’s no way I’m getting away from AD tonight.
Mid Tier: Larry Nance- Nance is one of the top chalk value plays on this slate, as the Cavs are still down to around seven or eight bodies with David Nwaba and George Hill set to miss tonight. The question with Nance has never been per minute production, it’s been minutes and he touched 38 minutes in the Cavs last game without Nwaba.
Low Tier: PJ Tucker (FanDuel)- I don’t see myself getting off AD/Nance at PF on FanDuel tonight, but if you are looking to punt as a low score drop, you can look at PJ Tucker. Tucker has topped 40 minutes in each of his last three games and you at least know he is going to be on the floor…
Top Tier: Joel Embiid- Like Westbrook, Embiid is an elite option on this slate but he’s going to fall behind the likes of AD, Harden and Giannis. Enes Kanter returned to the starting lineup for the Knicks last night, which is good news for Embiid as he has been considerably worse defensively than Mitchell Robinson this season.
Mid Tier: Rudy Gobert- I was all over Gobert against Indiana on Monday, and you know I have to go back to the well tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. This has been my favorite overall center matchup this season, and Gobert has elite upside at under $9,000 on FanDuel where you get +3 for blocks.
Low Tier: Cody Zeller- Since Willy Hernangomez was removed from the Hornets rotation, Zeller is logging 25 minutes per game on average, and touched 28 against this Hawks team two games ago. The Hawks are bottom-five in defensive efficiency to opposing centers on the season, and using Zeller can get you a path to rostering both Harden and AD.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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