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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/28/18)

I’m going to switch back and forth between my main GPP/Fade article and this style of the article as I got some great feedback the other day.  Continue to let me know what you guys like and how you want me to relay my take on the slate.

Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Game Theory:

The first thing that sticks out to me today is the number of major spreads we have, meaning that we’re likely to see 1-2 blowouts tonight.  This is something to keep an eye on as it is a risk baked into my formula of identifying the optimal plays tonight in GPPs. The first game I’m literally crossing off my list (outside of one player) on this 10 game slate is the Cavs/Thunder.  I’m very worried on the Thunder side targeting players like Russell Westbrook or Paul George where I’m confident this game won’t go 4 quarters.  On the Cavs side, Larry Nance Jr. is going to be in play after seeing 38 minutes the other night where I identified him as a great play if he saw over 25.  This is likely going to continue as the Cavs played much better with this tighter rotation.  Outside of this game, the other game with huge spreads has huge totals so we know we can get exposed to that upside affording the risk of a blowout.  My favorite games to get exposure on this slate are the Suns, Clippers, Bulls, and obviously the Pelicans/Wizards in that 241 over/under which is very chalky.  Also just want to toss out that the injury to Aaron Gordon will open up some interesting value on the Magic (big bumps to Isaac, Bamba, Vuc).

Top Teams to get your GPP players from:

Phoenix Suns:  The Suns and Clippers are going to be the late night hammer shooting you to the top of the leaderboards tonight as the only game starting at 10:30.  This game features a 229 Over/Under with a -12 spread in favor of the Clippers.  This is one of those games I talked about where I think there is a ton of upside with the O/U that I’m willing to accept the risk of a blowout.  Hint: As long as it’s not a 30+ point blowout I think a lot of these Suns players still get run.  Starting off with Josh Jackson who is the chalk of the chalk tonight at 3.3k but is one of those plays you NEED to get into your lineup as his likelihood of going for 6x is almost guaranteed in addition to providing you a 12x ceiling.   Similair to Jackson, Jamal Crawford is essentially in the exact same scenario minutes/usage/pace/slightly worse matchup and is going to be half the ownership as Jackson.  Crawford and Jackson will be in 100% of my lineups tonight.  If you’re looking for options to leverage these to plays for whatever reason, Mikal Bridges at the exact same price makes sense as an ownership pivot.  Another contrarian strategy to attack this game is paying up for TJ Warren or DeAndre Ayton, both who have major ceiling’s in this spot. I’m less exposed Devin Booker from my take that he’s just overpriced.  Although, I have that weird feeling this is one of those games Devin Booker drops 40 real life points. Keep that in mind.

LA Clippers:  On the other side of this game people seem to be less interested in the team projected for over 120 points.  The first two players that pop off the page for the Clippers are Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams.  Harrell’s price is going to scare people off of him where this is an ELITE matchup for him against the Suns front-court who are tied for 6th worst in the league defending Centers.  Again people are going to be scared paying this high for Harrell who started the season out as 4k.  It’s a psychological thing that will keep people off him tonight.  Harrell has one of the best center matchups in the league tonight in one of the highest scoring games.  He also sees substantial usage for a center-eligible player.  Lou Williams is going to post a usage rate over 30% tonight priced at 5.7k.  Even if he doesn’t see 30 minutes tonight he should easily hit value providing a huge ceiling if the Clippers give him an extended run.  Williams is the biggest risk when taking into account blowout potential tonight.  I love both these Clippers though.  If the Suns value wasn’t enough for you, feel free to play Avery Bradley at 3.8k and watch him run around the court doing nothing for 32 minutes tonight.

Chicago Bulls:  People have caught on to the Jabari Parker train and it doesn’t seem like he will be too much of a secret for much longer after burning some people earlier in the season as a chalky option.  Parker has been on fire lately, averaging over 45 FP/game over his last four contests, leading to only a $600 price increase as Draftkings algorithm lags behind his production a bit.  Parker is seeing MAJOR minutes for the Bulls and gets a matchup with the Bucks who rank 3rd worse in the league guarding forwards.  Parker is going to eat tonight.  Wendell Carter is another guy I’m going to ride as I think he is wayyyy too cheap.  His minutes are SO volatile so there is some risk involved but this seems like a game he should get extended run.  He’s a LOCK for 5x on Draftkings tonight.  If you’re looking for deeper value from this game, Ryan Arcidiacono paid off big for me on Monday hitting close to 10x and I’m going right back to him as a PG playing over 30 mpg at 3.9k.

 

 

Rankings will be in terms of ceiling in order.  This slate has a TON of value so it will be crucial to overexpose yourself to the highest upside players.

Point Guard

  • Westbrook
  • Lillard
  • Walker
  • Simmons
  • Holiday

Shooting Guard

  • Harden 
  • Booker
  • DeRozan
  • Beal
  • LaVine

Small Forward

  • Giannis
  • George
  • Mirotic
  • Harris
  • Parker

Power Forward

  • Davis
  • Aldridge
  • Harrell
  • Randle
  • Collins (GREAT PLAY TONIGHT BUT BEWARE OF FOUL TROUBLE – SHOULDN’T BE ISSUE WITH THE HORNETS)

Center

  • Embiid
  • Towns
  • Gobert
  • Capela
  • Nikola Vucevic

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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