Bobby’s NBA Game Theory for Draftkings – 12/17/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory for Draftkings – 12/17/19

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
S. Dinwiddie J. Randle N. Vucevic Nets/Pelicans
RJ Barrett K. Leonard D. Favor Hawks/Knicks
J. Holiday A. Davis J. Allen Magic/Jazz
D. Mitchell T. Prince J. Hayes Clippers/Suns
L. Ball B. Ingram R. Gobert Hornets/Kings

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Only a 6-game slate tonight that is bound to be pretty chalky with a limited number of “studs” and clear values on the slate so I do recommend playing a bit lighter tonight.
  • When building your core tonight, two players can be locked into your lineups.  Spencer Dinwiddie has taken the reigns for the Nets with LeVert/Irving down and his price is really great as a 30%+ usage player in the best game environment on the slate.  Dinwiddie can be used at the PG or SG position which is even more valuable today where guard is the deepest position by far.
    • The other guy I want to lock into my lineups is RJ Barrett.  At 4.5k, Barrett is a clear value that opens up the rest of the slate to plug in the AD’s or Kawhi’s of the slate.  Barrett is going to be playing 32-34 minutes tonight with a mid-20s usage rating.  Barrett also finds him in arguably the best game of the slate.
  • A game stack I’m finding myself high on tonight is the Nets vs Pelicans.
      • Obviously, pieces from this game will be chalky but it is comical how rarely game-stacking is utilized in NBA DFS.  Especially on a 6-game slate, a game that goes to overtime wins the slate for you if you stacked it up.  Given the fact that the pieces from this game are already posting huge value scores in addition to the extremely high total + a tight spread has me all over the players here.
      • From the Nets: Dinwiddie, Prince, Allen, Pinson 
      • From the Pelicans: Ball, Holiday, Ingram, Favors, Hayes
  • The pivot of the slate is clearly to play LeBron James over Anthony Davis.  While Davis is $400 less and projecting for more fantasy points, the difference is less than TWO Draftkings points.  Yet the ownership on AD is projected to be more than 2.5x that of LeBron.  This is a clear leverage spot to take advantage of, especially at the SF/F position that is on the weaker side today.

Make sure to check out my core plays for my build on tonight’s slate by signing up at dfskarma.com/shop.

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

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