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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/15/19)

Another short and one that isn’t as chalky at the moment but we’ll see what happens closer to lock.  We’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today.  Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:  It’ll be tough to not play Westbrook/Young at the PG position tonight.

  1. Victor Oladipo: Oladipo is on this slate as a lower owned option in the high-tier of players in a quietly massive team implied total that is ranked 3rd on the slate albiet, the Pacers/Suns game total is ranked 4/6.  Oladipo is going to have massive scoring equity tonight where he is below 8k due to four straight ‘bad’ performances where 2/4 were blowouts and Oladipo’s minutes were extremely limited.  Back to full force tonight, the blowout is still a factor where the Pacers are favored by over 10 but it’s a risk I’m willing to take for upside as a differentiator on another chalky six game slate.  The pace in this game will be interesting as both of these team’s are in the bottom half in pace but the Pacers implied team total is saying vegas has a different idea.
  2. TJ McConnell: McConnell is the definition of a punt play on Draftkings tonight where his 3.7k price range actually does give him a decent ceiling.  We know what we’re getting with McConnell.  Likely a 25 minute game in which he doesn’t take a ton of shots but contributes with assits and reaks havoc on the defensive end where he is always bound to pick up some steals.  Obviously, these are more volatile stats so it is important to understand that these periphrial’s will be key to him hitting his ceiling.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Khris Middleton: Middleton has been extremely consistent over the past few weeks and while I do believe his ceiling may have come down a bit with the massive usage from Giannis + some other Bucks players taking more prominent roles.  However, I don’t ove the PT/$ SG’s on this slate and Middleton provides a lot of consistency with a solid ceiling at projected low ownership tonight.  The ownership projection’s I’ve seen on Middleton are pretty fantastic tonight with everything being mainly in the single digit’s.  He is a fantastic leverage play at a tough position.
  2. Andrew Wiggins:  So do we think Andrew Wiggins is trying harder now with the latest departure from the Timberwolves squad?  Wiggins has been collecting over 7.5 rebounds/game since the firing of Thibedou and has actually been more active on the defensive end recording a steal in each of the three games. I usually am not a big Wiggins player but if he’s averaging over 20 shots per game, contributing on the boards, and recording steals his ceiling is legit.  It will be interesting and crucial to see if he can get to the free throw line more.  This is also a narrative spot against former teammate Jimy Butler in which Wiggins is sure to want to show out.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:  Must pay up for SF tonight.

  1. Kevin Durant:  SF is a position tonight I’ll be paying up for whether it is Giannis, George, Durant, or Simmons.  The latter two being the more contrarian options on this slate.  Durant has not been crushing lately, mostly do to the Warriors blowing out a lot of their opponents.  However, this should be an extremely close game tonight in an up apce spot for the Warriors.  9.7k for Durant in a fantastic matchup where he is projected to be < 15% owned is an elite spot.  I’ll have a ton of exposure tonight.
  2. Ben Simmons: Obviously this is the Jimmy Butler revenge game but I believe this spot will lower ownership on Simmons with everyone buying into the Butler narrative.  While I’m OK with Butler in this spot, I much rather pay the premium for Simmons where I’m going to get a lot more exposure to usage and periphrial stats from the Sixers rotation.  Simmons is second on this slate at the SF position in FP/min this month (1.43) and should be locked in for 35+ tonight in what should be a fun game to watch.

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Lauri Markkanen: The Bulls continue to be a team consistently under priced on Draftkings. It will be tough to fit in Collins + Lauri plus some of the other studs on this slate so we’ll end up having to make sacrifices somewhere but Lauri is likely someone I’ll be prioritizing at the PF/F/UTIL position’s on Draftkings. Collins offers a lot of versatility and differentiation to our lineups where he is essentially eligible for four different positions.  Lauri is going to be playing heavy minutes tonight against the Lakers in which should be a high-pace matchup with little defense being played.  At 6.1k, with the 22%+ usage rate Markkanen gets it’ll be tough to see him not hitting value tonight while offering a ton of upside.
  2. Wendell Carter: Wendell Carter is a major talent that is pretty underrated considering how bad the Bulls have been this season in addition to Carter’s minutes volatility.  The underppriced Bulls are getting a fantastic matchup in a major pace up game. If Carter has been trending in the positive direction over the past few weeks and offers a ton of upside at just 5.3k if he can get close to his minutes projection tonight.  If he plays over 30 minutes he will crush value.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. DeAndre Ayton: Ayton’s price has come down a bit, now at 7.1k where hs is coming off a 46 DK point game in under 30 minutes of action.  With Ayton likely to get over 30 minutes tonight with both Sabonis/Turner playing heavy minutes for the Pacers, Ayton has a massive ceiling.  Outside of Collins, Ayton is one of the cheapest players on the slate with upside over 60 DK points.  Ironically over the course of the season the Pacers have been very solid defensively against bigs but have been getting torched over their last five games ranking bottom five in the league in defensive rating.  I want to take advantage of this dip in Ayton’s price and get exposure on a slate most people won’t be able to fit him into their lineups.
  2. JaVale McGee: If you’re looking to pay down tonight and stack up this Bulls/Lakers game with Markkanen/Carter (or some other decent plays avaialble) I love McGee as an option for just 5.3k where he has legitimate upside over 40 DK points.  With McGee getting some rest in terms of minutes and usage over the past few games I think he’ll be back in full force for this game back in LA against the Bulls that feels like a must win for the Lakers.  McGee can be an extremely high FP/min player that comes with a lot of volatility in minutes but brings an elite ceiling to the table where he comes 2-4k cheaper than other players with similair ceiling projections.

Written By: Robert Viafora

Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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