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NBA DFS 1/15/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, leading the NBA in pace through 43 games. They get a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who rank fourth in the league in pace thus far. Atlanta has struggled offensively, though, ranking only 29th in the NBA in offensive rating this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma City leads the league in defensive rating through 42 games. With that being said, the Hawks are +8.5 point underdogs in a game set at 233 points, giving them a respectable implied total of 112.3 points.

Jeremy Lin was expected to be a chalky option tonight, but he has since moved from probable to doubtful. His ownership will likely slide over to Trae Young, who will be one of the highest owned players on the slate. He has been playing at a high level recently, averaging 18.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.7 steals (34.8 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Young has been a consistent option recently, as well, scoring 30+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, including three games with 39+ DK points. Young will be locked into 30+ minutes with Lin doubtful tonight, and he makes a consistent option with high upside, as well. John Collins is probable tonight, and he’s another Atlanta player that will feature a plethora of ownership. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 19.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (38.3 DK points) in 31.4 minutes per game. Similarly to Young, he has scored 30+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games. He has also scored 40+ DK points in five of those 10 games, including three of his last four. He needed 32.5 minutes to score 37.25 DK points against Oklahoma City earlier this season, and he will be locked into big minutes with Dewayne Dedmon doubtful tonight. Omari Spellman is another player that will benefit from the injury to Dedmon. He has performed well in limited minutes, averaging 6.0 points and 4.1 rebounds (15.4 DK points) in 17.0 minutes per game. He was forced into 30 minutes in his last game, though, scoring 13 points with six rebounds, one assist, and four blocks (31.0 DK points). He’ll be locked into similar minutes again tonight, and Spellman simply doesn’t need many fantasy points to hit value. The Hawks get a matchup against a tough defense, but they make up arguably the safest stack on the slate for their price tags.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are one of the slower paced teams in the league, ranking only 27th in the NBA in pace this season. They’ll see an uptick in pace tonight, as they face off against the Golden State Warriors, who currently rank 10th in the league in pace. Denver has featured a dominant offense this season, ranking sixth in the NBA in offensive rating thus far. This is a plus matchup against Golden State, who ranks only 16th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Nuggets are +1 point underdogs in a game set at 227.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 113.3 points tonight.

Nikola Jokic will certainly come with some ownership tonight, but not as much as he should. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 28.8 points, 11.7 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (59.3 DK points) in 33.2 minutes per game. He has scored 50+ DK points in eight of his last nine games, and he’s averaging 59.3 DK points per game over that span, as well. Furthermore, Jokic is averaging 1.7 DK points per minute at home this season, as opposed to only 1.39 DK points per minute on the road. Jamal Murray has cooled off a bit recently, but his upside is undeniable. He’s averaging 16.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists (30.5 DK points) in 31.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also scored 30+ DK points in each of his last four contests, although his numbers were significantly more inconsistent prior to those games. With that being said, over his last 10 games, he has posted 56.75 and 69.5 DK points in two contests. He struggled in his first outing of the season against Golden State, but this will be a faster paced, high scoring type of game that Murray can find success in. I don’t necessarily believe you need a third member of this stack, but I’ll add Paul Millsap for the sake of this article. Similarly to Jokic, he’ll feature some ownership tonight. He has faced plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, and that has been the case recently, as well. Overall, Millsap is averaging 10.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.3 steals (26.1 DK points) in 27.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. His minutes have been extremely inconsistent, but he’s expected to see around 30 minutes tonight. He has scored 33.25 and 32.75 DK points in his last two games with 30+ minutes, and he certainly adds upside to this stack. He also adds quite a bit of risk, though.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Kevin Huerter

Huerter has been an inconsistent option throughout the 2018 season, averaging 8.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (18.9 DK points) in 26.4 minutes per game. He has played 36+ minutes in each of his last four games, though, and he has seemingly caught fire, averaging 16.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 steals (32.4 DK points) in 37.5 minutes per game over that span. He also needed only 25.2 minutes to score 21.5 DK points in his only matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season.

Huerter is expected to be locked into massive minutes for the Atlanta Hawks once again tonight. He’s becoming a bigger part of the offense, and he’ll continue to see minutes in the high-30s or low-40s. As mentioned above, he gets a solid matchup against Oklahoma City, who currently rank 22nd in the NBA against shooting guards. Huerter is another chalky option for the Hawks, and he can be considered in all leagues.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Omari Spellman

I have outlined Spellman above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. On the season, he’s averaging 12.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.5 blocks on a per-36 minute basis. He gets a solid matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who rank 24th in the NBA against power forwards. Spellman is going to be owned at an extremely high rate tonight, and he makes an “avoid at your own risk” type of play tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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