Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/25/18)
Only a 4 game slate tonight so my article is going to be pretty brief. The best strategy on these short slates is to stack up on one game and hope you get some OT like we did Tuesday night with the 76ers and the Pistons. In addition, you can access my CORE-Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Collin Sexton
Just off looking for some GPP value on a 4-game slate I think Sexton provides some upside at only 3.9k on Draftkings. He see’s between 23-27 minutes per game with a volatile usage rate which helps us in GPPs where we’re going to bank on getting one of those spiked usage games. 3.9k take a shot tonight.
Fade: Lonzo Ball
People are going to play him because of his name, the Lakers, and the Rondo suspension. He’s seen less than 15% usage in most of his games and is priced as if he’s seeing 35 minutes at 25% usage. Easy fade.
Top GPP Play: Rodney Hood
The Cavs are going to be where I’m taking a lot of my GPP shots tonight. They looked awful against the Nets last night but we shouldn’t expect this team to score 80 points a night on the regular. There is no one outside of Kevin Love and maybe Osman who gets a look in DFS. Hood has major talent and is seeing the minutes to put up a big game at 4.4k
Fade: Josh Hart
Another easy fade to me, similair to Lonzo Ball, Hart barely sees above 15% usage a game and is now priced up to 6.8k on Draftkings. There really is no ceiling for him at this price and is a simple fade on a four game slate.
Top GPP Play: Gordon Hayward
Hayward’s price has come down a TON. He is now only 5.6k where he is averaging 1.04 FP/m. Hayward is consistently putting up 25 DK points per game and should be a lock for around that tonight. Given the type of upside we know Hayward has that hasn’t been showcased this season, what better time to take a shot than on this 4-game slate.
Fade: Cedi Osman
As was an easy fade for me last night I’m going to be fading Osman again tonight. The DFS community loves this guy and truly overvalues how talented he is. He’s priced at 6.9 k after scoring 8 points against the Nets last night and is projected for under 30 minutes again tonight. His shooting efficiency has come back to Earth in his last two games and Osman is way overpriced.
Top GPP Play: Jayson Tatum
It’s comical that Tatum is cheaper than Cedi Osman. Actually hilarious. I don’t understand what happened in the Draftkings pricing algo to allow this to happen but Tatum is a lock for me tonight and is someone who will be on ALL my GPP lineups. Tatum is locked in for 35 minutes and should see mid 20’s in usage. Easy play at 6.7k and will be lower owned than you think.
Fade: Blake Griffin
Blake Griffin could go off tonight. It’s not that bad of a matchup and is a pace up game for the Pistons. I’m just going to pay up elsewhere as everyone chases his huge game. Recency bias = fade.
Top GPP Play: Nikola Vucevic
I’m sick of checking the box scores and the top lineups in my GPPs to see they all have Vuc. I’m going to be major over-exposed on a 4-game slate where he has a 60 point ceiling and seems to go for 50 points every night. People will be scared to pay 8.2k for a guy they don’t here about much. Play him.
Fade: JaVale McGee
If this game was in Denver it’d be such an easy fade for me given McGee’s asthma problems. With that being said McGee is still the highest projected owned play on the slate at 6.2k where he hasn’t topped 30 minutes once this season and should see even less than 25 on the second half of a back to back. FADE.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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