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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/17/18)

Solid 9-game NBA slate tonight leading up to what will be a HUGE NFL Sunday for Karma Nation! Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Jamal Murray

Murray has taken major strides towards star point guard and elite scorer status this season for the Nuggets.  Murray has taken over as the 1B to Jokic on this team and should be continually put into positions to dominate. Tonight the Nuggets get a HUGE pace up game with the Pelicans who have also been very weak defending the PG position.  Murray is a bargain at 6.3k on Draftkings tonight and should be less than 15% owned in GPPs.

 

Fade: Kemba Walker

The Sixers were already stingy against the guard position and now added Jimmy Butler.  They will continue to be a tough team to play as they are very difficult on defense.  9.5k for Kemba Wakler is just something I can’t even consider on a slate like this with so many other great PG options.  You could make the case on Fanduel but I’m staying away.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play:  Tyreke Evans

Evans isn’t seeing huge minutes but does dominate the ball when on the floor averaging a 27.4% usage rate this season while usually getting under 30 minutes a game.  With this type of usage translated into a FP/min rate over 1 I believe Evans has a ton of upside at only 3.9k even in a limited role.  Great GPP play at SG.

 

Fade: Nicolas Batum

Batum is priced up for his ability to “stuff the stat sheet” and get peripheral stats.  With a usage rate very down in the dirt, relying on a volatile fantasy output like peripherals is not something I’m going to bank on even in GPPs.  Batum’s upside really isn’t there at this price and he’ll need to make major contributions with steals/blocks/rebounds to hit value.

 

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play:  TJ Warren

Remember week one where TJ Warren was priced below 4k and not in the starting lineup for the Suns?  Yea I lol’d too and now am loving seeing him only priced at 6k in a smash spot with OKC who play at a faster pace and have been below average guarding forwards this year. Warren provides a huge ceiling and should see his price continue to rise.  This is a “continue to buy low” spot for Warren who is trending up.

Fade: LeBron James

Everyone’s going to chase his big game.  The Lakers have a chance to blow out the Magic.  LeBron should see a decreased workload/minutes after being heavily utilized last game as he hasn’t posted back to back 32%+ games this season.  The price tag rose $900 for a pace down game.  I’m passing on LeBron tonight.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Mike Muscala

If you’re looking to pay down rather than just plugging in Anthony Davis, give a look to Mike Muscala who has quietly seen an upwards trend in minutes while contributing all across the stat sheet as a stretch four for the Sixers.  With Saric and Covington gone, that forward/power forward spot needs to be filled and Muscala seems to be that guy.  If he takes in that Saric role, 3.4k is ridiculously low for him.  Buy now!

Fade: Paul George

I don’t know why Paul George is PF eligible on Draftkings but I guess that’s just today’s “positionless” NBA as George does occasionally guard opposing forwards.  At basically 10k there is just no chance I find myself roster PG13 at this point.  I really don’t see the upside for him and project with 90% confidence he falls into the 40-45 DK point window tonight.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Clint Capela

Willie Cauley-Stein will be the chalk option here but if you’re looking for a lower owned pivot, Clint Capela is your man where he’s pretty close relative in price at about 1k more on Draftkings.  We’re sacrificing usage for minutes by moving to Capela and paying a premium which will scare a lot of people.  However, Capela has more upside given his higher likelihood of hitting the double-double bonus and contributing in blocks.  If you’re not paying for AD or WCS at center Capela is your man in the mid-high range.

 

Fade: JaVale McGee

I’ve been fading JaValee since I nailed him on that 50 DK point game earlier this season.  Since then, McGee has only hit value twice in six games so I’m confident we’re on the right track.  His price saw a bump after reaching value in his last game, where his minutes continued to sit in the lower end of his spectrum in the low-20’s.  He really doesn’t see crazy usage so I see no reason paying up for him in a pace-down matchup, with about 10 less minutes than Willie Cauley-Stein who is only $100 more.

 

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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