NBA DFS 11/16/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems - DFS Karma
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NBA DFS 11/16/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA this season, ranking 30th in the league through 13 games. They’ll see a massive uptick in pace against the Sacramento Kings, who currently rank second in the NBA in pace. Memphis has struggled offensively, ranking only 22nd in the NBA in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 15th in the league in defensive rating. They are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 211.5 points, giving them an implied total of 109 points.

Kyle Anderson has seen his role increase exponentially recently, as he’s averaging 35.8 minutes per game over his last four games. Throughout his career, Anderson is averaging 9.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.9 steals on a per-36 minute basis. He has also scored 23+ DK points in each of his last five games, and Anderson still comes with a surprisingly low price tag. Mike Conley is another player that has been locked into big minutes, and he has performed well in each of his last three contests. In those games, Conley is averaging 27.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.3 steals (42.0 DK points) in 38.0 minutes per game. Conley was also able to score 44.5 DK points in his only matchup against Sacramento this season. Shelvin Mack is another cheap option, who comes with tremendous potential. He has scored 20+ DK points in seven of his last eight games, including four games with 30+ DK points. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-20s or low-30s once again tonight, as well. For what it’s worth, Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple will also likely command plenty of ownership, and can be considered for their prices in this stack.


Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Brewers have been pushing the pace early this season, ranking fifth in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who only rank 23rd in the league in pace through 15 games. While Chicago has been slowing the pace down, they also rank 24th in the NBA in defensive rating. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking second in the league in offensive rating. The Bucks are -14 point favorites in a game set at 224 points, and they feature the highest implied total on the slate at 119 points.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear focal point of the Milwaukee offense, recording a 33.3% usage rating this season. He has needed 32.8 minutes per game to averaging 25.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Antetokounmpo is averaging over 50 DK points per game over his last five games, and Chicago simply doesn’t have anyone that will be able to guard him. Eric Bledsoe has also been playing at a high level recently, as he has scored 34+ DK points in each of his last four games. Over that span, he’s averaging 17.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.0 steals (36.8 DK points) in 30.0 minutes per game. Pat Connaughton is another option that needs to be considered. He has seen an uptick in minutes over his last four games, as he’s averaging 23.0 minutes per game over that span. He’s also averaging 10.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks (25.1 DK points) per game. Connaughton also makes Antetokounmpo’s price tag a bit easier to swallow on this slate.


Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Washington Wizards

The Washington Wizards have struggled this season, but they do rank sixth in the NBA in pace. They get a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who surprisingly rank only 24th in the league in pace this season. Washington also only ranks 19th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Brooklyn ranks 22nd in defensive rating. Washington is currently a -6.5 point favorite in a game set at 223 points, and they own an implied total of 114.8 points tonight.

The Nets have featured one of the worst defenses in the NBA against point guards, and John Wall has been playing at an extremely high level recently. He has scored 48+ DK points in five of his last six games. Over the last 10 days, Wall is averaging 20.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.8 steals in 35.5 minutes per game. Wall also leads the team with a 27.9% usage rating. Brooklyn has also struggled as much as any team in the NBA against centers this season. Dwight Howard hasn’t been playing at an elite level, but he’s averaging 12.6 points and 9.0 rebounds in 27.5 minutes per game. He could see 30+ minutes tonight, though, and this is a matchup that can get Howard on track after dealing with injuries early this season. Jeff Green is a way to get a piece of the Washington offense at low ownership. He has caught fire over his last four games, averaging 14.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.3 steals (27.8 DK points) in 25.8 minutes per game.


Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Ryan Arcidiacono

Arcidiacono has performed well this, averaging 7.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in 26.0 minutes per game. He has only seen a 10.2% usage rating this season, but that hasn’t stopped him. He has also recently been inserted into the starting lineup, and he has played 30+ minutes in each of his last four games. In those games, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (23.6 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game.

Arcidiacono is expected to draw the start tonight, and he should be locked into 30+ minutes once again. He gets a tough matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, but he will see a massive uptick in pace tonight. Furthermore, this game is expected to feature plenty of points. Arcidiacono doesn’t come with a ton of upside because of his low usage rating, but he makes a consistent option for a low price tag.


Hidden Gem: Value Big

Pat Connaughton

I have outlined Connaughton above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He has seen an increased role, and that’s expected to continue with Donte DiVincenzo injured. On the season, Connaughton is averaging 16.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.6 blocks on a per-36 minute basis, and his recent success in expanded minutes should come as no surprise. He’s a safe option, who comes with tremendous upside for a low price tag.


Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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