Bobby's NBA GPP Breakdown (12/21/18) » DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/21/18)

Solid 10-game slate tonight that looks really interesting with some big name questionable/doubtful calls.  Make sure to hop in the discord closer to lock or sign up for the NBA core plays to get my Draftkings core for tonight.  It should be really good! Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

 

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Kyrie Irving: Irving is one of the top PG’s in terms of price on this slate but won’t be one of the top owned point guards for the most part.  Irving is the clear pivot off of Kemba Walker tonight who is projected at least 50% higher ownership on Draftkings.  Irving gets an equal minutes/usage projection as well as defensive assignment but the Celtics get a pace up game with a higher implied vegas total.  At essentially equal projections across all categories, it is the correct choice to take Irving at lower ownership in all contests.
  2. D’Angelo Russell: And just like that Russell’s price has plummeted $1.2k on Draftkings in just two games.  Obviously, he was overpriced at 8.1k for his minutes load in this offense but he closed out the last game for the Nets which shows that Atkinson wants him on the floor in tight games.  With a 2.5 spread between the Nets and the Pacers, with a 7-game winning streak on the line, I believe Russell will play heavy minutes tonight at a 30+% usage rate.  Amazing GPP play at 6.9k.
  3. Shaq Harrison: If you’re dumpster diving at the PG position which I usually don’t do I prefer Shaq Harrison over Derrick White.  It’s a close toss-up as Harrison will see slightly less minutes but is priced cheaper.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Donovan Mitchell: People quickly forget about Donovan Mitchell with his slowish start to the season, but the 7.1k Jazz star has been much better of late averaging 1.08 FP/M over the last month.  In addition, he has been playing minutes into the high 30’s over his past few games which shows he’s not being slowed downed by any injuries.  Mitchell has 50 DK point upside tonight in what should be a high-scoring game.
  2. Evan Fournier: Fournier is a shooter who has had an extremely inefficient shooting month leading to a decrease in price and significantly lower ownership.  People are going to be terrified to play Fournier tonight but I love taking a good shooter who’s been “cold”, en route to a big game.  Fournier has a real shot to see that huge game tonight.
  3. Jeremy Lin: Back in The Garden where Linsanity started? You have to think the Hawks give Lin some additional minutes tonight which is something that projections won’t pick up.  Lin has a very high usage rate on the floor and has 8-10x upside at this price. #Narrative

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Gordon Hayward: Hayward sees a higher usage rate off the bench and I like him better matched up with the 2nd unit for some minutes in a pace up game.  Tatum will be much chalkier but I believe they have similair ceiling’s with Gordon priced much cheaper.  He’s who I’m riding with tonight to pair with Irving.
  2. Kyle Anderson: If the Kings can dictate the pace in this game you need exposure to Kyle Anderson tonight.  He is not a player I love to lean on but the matchup is elite and he should see significant more opportunities tonight against a King’s team that pushes the pace.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Domantas Sabonis: Can they please give this man more minutes?  I’m nervous about his minutes tonight not reaching the 30-minute mark which we’ll likely need in order for him to hit this ceiling but this matchup is elite and the Nets have the highest pace in the NBA over their 7 game win streak.  I think this game hits the over and I’ll want a few pieces.
  2. Julius Randle: If Anthony Davis out, Julius Randle is a LOCK tonight.  Doesn’t matter what his ownership will be, he’ll put up over 50DK points.  You’ll need to play him.
  3. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: As I said, this game should hit the over and I don’t think we’ll get RHJ priced this cheap in a longggg time.  His role in this Nets rotation is increasing as he earns more and more minutes.  RHJ should easily put up 30 DK points tonight.  Love this play.

 

 

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Enes Kanter: Center is a position you likely don’t want to mess up today and a lot of my builds will be dual-center lineups as to get the most exposure to a great position tonight as possible.  We’re paying a premium for Kanter on Draftkings tonight but this matchup and pace is ELITE and he should thrive in a game where much defense isn’t played.  He has 50+ DK point upside if this game can go the way I envision it.
  2. Jarrett Allen: The minutes here scare me a bit but the Nets will need Jarrett Allen on the court to match up with Turner/Sabonis/Young.  This is the type of matchup Allen plays well in and I think he has a great shot at a double double tonight which will lock him in for minimum 5x value on DK.
  3. Robert Williams: Williams could be the center the Bucks need.  He is putting together quality minutes on the floor from a real life and DFS perspective (1.13 FP/min).  Williams is only 3.8k and is going to see 25 minutes tonight in a positive matchup and a pace up game.  He could break the slate if he is able to keep up or exceed his production.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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